CINEMA

***** Sound of Freedom

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, January 22, 2024 17:13
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 7381
PAGE 4 of 10

Wednesday, August 9, 2023 12:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Angel Studios won't say how much of the film's $164 million domestic take comes from donated tickets or those bought directly by a moviegoer.

August 8, 2023 11:06am

The film’s blockbuster performance has no doubt been boosted by Angel’s mastermind plan to change the way movies are distributed through its innovative “Pay It Forward” model, whereby people are urged to buy and then donate Sound of Freedom tickets for others to use. Those “others” can grab a code off the Pay It Forward website and then redeem it using major online ticketing services or an individual theater.

But how money is used from unredeemed tickets is at the company’s discretion, according to this standard disclaimer on the website: “Upon submitting my Pay It Forward contribution, I acknowledge and agree that Angel Studios will make reasonable efforts to use Pay It Forward ticket sales for the audience growth of the intended film or series. However, Angel Studios becomes the owner of all funds upon receipt and may use them at its sole discretion to further the Angel Studios’ mission of amplifying light through impactful stories.”

Right-leaning audiences dismiss criticisms of the movie from the left and mainstream press as the thoughts of “pedophiles, satanists and other malicious parties,” while left-leaning audiences found the movie’s messaging tactics to be aligned with “QAnon, racism, white supremacy, Christo-fascist, anti-Semitic and an overall deceitful work.”

More at https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/sound-of-freedom-a
ngel-studios-pay-it-forward-1235550898
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



They learned all of that from Disney.

https://www.themarysue.com/captain-marvel-challenge-young-women/

https://boundingintocomics.com/2019/03/13/new-reports-of-empty-theater
s-at-captain-marvel-add-to-movies-controversy
/



Also, there is no such thing as a "left-leaning audience" for Sound of Freedom and Qanon is not a real thing.

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Wednesday, August 9, 2023 6:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Tuesday's Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,356% (+1%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,186% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,052% (+9%)

SoF needs 171% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 290% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 134% above Barbie.

Sound of Freedom doesn't see much of a boost on Cheap Seat Tuesday with only $1,170,049. Haunted Mansion seems to be CTS's big winner with a 30% increase over Monday. Unless you're counting The Flash and the pennies it's making because it appears that it made 932% more than it did with Monday's take of $501. So huge gap of over $400k between the two of them on CTS.

Barbie gets $9.6 Million more. I'm surprised it wasn't a little larger than that on Cheap Seat Tuesday with the $9.1 Million on Monday. Perhaps it's finally slowing down? We'll add another 11% internationally for Tuesday for 21% total, so Barbie's probably at 1,073% now.

Super Mario Bros gets enough added back in to round up a full percentage point after losing 2% over the weekend.

Insidious made $140k yesterday. It's just about time to retire this movie, and any international bump from here on out will be negligible unless Bruce is really behind on those numbers.



In List-Making news:

I still couldn't add any movies to the lists of actual money gained/lost on completed films for last week because some long-time movies are still stubbornly holding on to theater counts. Guardians 3 is still in 33 theaters and has grossed $25,402 since Friday. The Little Mermaid is still in 90 theaters and has grossed $61,262 since Friday. Super Mario Bros added 56 theaters back for a total of 152 theaters and has grossed $35,115 since Friday. The Flash is in 26 theaters and has grossed $68,653 since Friday.

Just pull them out already. In total, including all weekend, the 4 movies haven't even made in $171k. It's costing more at this point to pay the employees and keep the lights and A/C running for these showings.

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Wednesday, August 9, 2023 8:40 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I have not updated some lists.
It is Wednesday, and Talk To Me, from UK, has not yet revealed their Box Office from Friday, or any day since.
SoF is far enough down to be in the weeds, and ghosting studios like A24 leave rankings unresolved, but for the top earners.

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Thursday, August 10, 2023 11:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Since SoF's Wednesday numbers are in bright and early and projections of the other relevant flicks are already in, I'm just going to update Wednesday's list now. If anything major changes when numbers are in later, I'll adjust it.

Tuesday's Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,356% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,193% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,060% (+8%)

SoF needs 164% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 283% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 133% above Barbie.


Sound of Freedom has its first sub-$1 Million day. With rounding to the closest million, it's not in danger of having any days this week where it doesn't add any percentage points since it will easily make what it needs tonight to get past the next hump. It will make more than $1 Million every day this weekend as well, but it's now within range where I expect it to make too little money on one or possibly two days next week to gain any percentage points for the day. Without good international help (and possibly a renewed interest stateside when it is released internationally), I'm now convinced that 3rd place on this list is the highest it's going to get, and that's only if Barbie doesn't rise enough to displace it.

Barbie projections for Wednesday are in and they're the lowest the movie has seen so far with $7.35 Million. So at least during the week next week on days where SoF goes up, Barbie should actually be making smaller increases. So it is possible that (without including international numbers) Barbie isn't going to be able to capitalize much on this and make domestic gains on SoF next week. Barbie will make Domestic gains on SoF next week, but they have slowed down and should be next to negligible after the weekend.

I'm going to give Barbie another 9% internationally for Wednesday, making the Mon-Wed total international bump so far 30%, which means that SoF is likely only about 100% in front of Barbie now.

Insidious made $100k yesterday, and even though SMB's numbers aren't in yet it only made $3k on Tuesday, so unless any international numbers come in for those movies they're not moving at all on today's list.


I'm looking forward to seeing the theater count list tonight. Hopefully we can finally retire some of these movies and catch up with some yearly accounting.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, August 10, 2023 4:00 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The past weekend had a market-wide drop of 11% in Box Office, and this wiped out my predictions.

But I have still been noticing trends, and I'll make a table to help show this.
I fully expect most folk will not have interest in this, but I think it is curious. Not only because Sound of Freedom is such a wonderful film, but also because it is breaking the mold, much like Maverick did last year.

Barbie has been benefitting from strong summer weekday sales, which SMB did not have. (SMB is a Seth Rogan film?) SoF has had strong Saturday and Sunday figures, the days when honest working folk are not working.

Over the weekend, Barbie made 53.0% of it's Production Budget. Sound of Freedom made 54.0% of it's Production Budget.

I m using $14M as the Production Budget figure for Sof, and $100M for Barbie. Barbie's international balances may bounce around, but this table is using the stated observation of 47.5% Domestic and 52.5% International.

All figures not tagged with % are Millions of Dollars.
For Barbie figures, the same figures are both $Millions, but also % of Production Budget.
1st column is Date.
2nd column is SoF Single Day BO.
3rd column is Single Day BO % of Budget.
4th and 5th are Total Cummulative Box Office, and then % of Budget.
6th and 7th are Last 7 Days of Box Office, and then % of Budget. All for Sound of Freedom.
8th column is Barbie single Day Domestic Box Office.
9th column is the % of Budget gain on SoF % for the same day.
10th column is the Total of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
11th column is the total of the Last 7 Days of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
12th is the % gain on SoF for the same Last 7 Day period.
13th column - 18th columns are the same things, but for Worldwide Box Office.



0000________Sound of Freedom_______ | _______________Barbie_______________________
000/00000 Domestic Box Office 00000\ / Domestic Box Office 0 Worldwide Box Office \
00000000 1 Day Acuml Total Last L 7D 0000 Gain 0000Lst7 Gain0000 Gain00000Lst7 Gain
00001Day %Budg Total %Budg 7Day %Bdg 1Day onSoF Ttl Day SoF 1Day onSoF Ttl Day SoF
27J 2.57 18.4% 136.5 0975% 31.9 228% 21.2 +2.8% 258 236 +8% 44.5 26.1% 542 496 268%
28J 3.77 26.9% 140.3 1002% 30.0 214% 29.0 +2.1% 287 239 25% 60.9 34.0% 603 502 288%
29J 4.81 34.4% 145.1 1036% 27.4 196% 34.5 +0.1% 322 204 +8% 72.5 38.1% 676 428 232%
30J 4.23 30.2% 149.3 1066% 24.9 178% 29.4 -0.8% 351 189 11% 61.7 31.5% 737 397 219%
31J 2.00 14.3% 151.3 1081% 23.7 169% 15.0 +0.7% 366 178 +9% 31.5 17.2% 769 374 205%
1 A 2.06 14.7% 153.4 1096% 22.4 160% 15.3 +0.6% 381 167 +7% 32.1 17.4% 800 351 191%
2 A 1.56 11.1% 155.0 1107% 21.0 150% 12.8 +1.7% 394 157 +7% 26.9 15.8% 827 330 180%
3 A 1.44 10.3% 156.4 1117% 19.9 142% 11.8 +1.5% 406 148 +6% 24.8 14.5% 853 311 169% 185
4 A 2.21 15.8% 158.6 1133% 18.3 131% 16.5 +0.7% 423 135 +4% 34.7 18.9% 888 284 153% 218
5 A 2.87 20.5% 161.5 1154% 16.4 117% 19.5 -1.0% 442 120 +3% 40.9 20.4% 928 252 135% 176
6 A 2.48 17.7% 164.0 1171% 14.6 104% 17.0 -0.7% 459 108 +4% 35.7 18.0% 964 227 123% 170
7 A 1.08 07.7% 165.1 1179% 13.7 098% 09.1 +1.4% 468 102 +4% 19.1 11.4% 983 214 116% 160

Quote:


July 30 was the first day that Barbie made less Domestic BO % of Budget than SoF did.
Then again on 5 and 6 August.

Took me a few days to build this table, but finally got it.

It is currently taking about 7 days for Barbie WWBO to gain 100% on SoF.
Barbie will have Japan release this week.
Barbie only has about 2 weeks of summer remaining, then it will likely plateau, or flatline. Not sure if it will be able to catch SMB once summer ends.
SoF doesn't need gobs of international sales to gain 100% more - only $14M.

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Friday, August 11, 2023 12:03 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The past weekend had a market-wide drop of 11% in Box Office, and this wiped out my predictions.

But I have still been noticing trends, and I'll make a table to help show this.
I fully expect most folk will not have interest in this, but I think it is curious. Not only because Sound of Freedom is such a wonderful film, but also because it is breaking the mold, much like Maverick did last year.



I think what it's done already is admirable, no matter what the future holds for it.

Quote:

Barbie has been benefitting from strong summer weekday sales, which SMB did not have. (SMB is a Seth Rogan film?) SoF has had strong Saturday and Sunday figures, the days when honest working folk are not working.


SMB is NOT a Seth Rogan film. Thankfully. He voiced Donkey Kong, unfortunately, but that was his only contribution to the flick. The TMNT movie in the theaters now was all Seth Rogan, and that's why we have a frumpy, fat black April O'Neil in it.

Quote:

Over the weekend, Barbie made 53.0% of it's Production Budget. Sound of Freedom made 54.0% of it's Production Budget.

I m using $14M as the Production Budget figure for Sof, and $100M for Barbie. Barbie's international balances may bounce around, but this table is using the stated observation of 47.5% Domestic and 52.5% International.

All figures not tagged with % are Millions of Dollars.
For Barbie figures, the same figures are both $Millions, but also % of Production Budget.
1st column is Date.
2nd column is SoF Single Day BO.
3rd column is Single Day BO % of Budget.
4th and 5th are Total Cummulative Box Office, and then % of Budget.
6th and 7th are Last 7 Days of Box Office, and then % of Budget. All for Sound of Freedom.
8th column is Barbie single Day Domestic Box Office.
9th column is the % of Budget gain on SoF % for the same day.
10th column is the Total of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
11th column is the total of the Last 7 Days of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
12th is the % gain on SoF for the same Last 7 Day period.
13th column - 18th columns are the same things, but for Worldwide Box Office.



0000________Sound of Freedom_______ | _______________Barbie_______________________
000/00000 Domestic Box Office 00000\ / Domestic Box Office 0 Worldwide Box Office \
00000000 1 Day Acuml Total Last L 7D 0000 Gain 0000Lst7 Gain0000 Gain00000Lst7 Gain
00001Day %Budg Total %Budg 7Day %Bdg 1Day onSoF Ttl Day SoF 1Day onSoF Ttl Day SoF
27J 2.57 18.4% 136.5 0975% 31.9 228% 21.2 +2.8% 258 236 +8% 44.5 26.1% 542 496 268%
28J 3.77 26.9% 140.3 1002% 30.0 214% 29.0 +2.1% 287 239 25% 60.9 34.0% 603 502 288%
29J 4.81 34.4% 145.1 1036% 27.4 196% 34.5 +0.1% 322 204 +8% 72.5 38.1% 676 428 232%
30J 4.23 30.2% 149.3 1066% 24.9 178% 29.4 -0.8% 351 189 11% 61.7 31.5% 737 397 219%
31J 2.00 14.3% 151.3 1081% 23.7 169% 15.0 +0.7% 366 178 +9% 31.5 17.2% 769 374 205%
1 A 2.06 14.7% 153.4 1096% 22.4 160% 15.3 +0.6% 381 167 +7% 32.1 17.4% 800 351 191%
2 A 1.56 11.1% 155.0 1107% 21.0 150% 12.8 +1.7% 394 157 +7% 26.9 15.8% 827 330 180%
3 A 1.44 10.3% 156.4 1117% 19.9 142% 11.8 +1.5% 406 148 +6% 24.8 14.5% 853 311 169% 185
4 A 2.21 15.8% 158.6 1133% 18.3 131% 16.5 +0.7% 423 135 +4% 34.7 18.9% 888 284 153% 218
5 A 2.87 20.5% 161.5 1154% 16.4 117% 19.5 -1.0% 442 120 +3% 40.9 20.4% 928 252 135% 176
6 A 2.48 17.7% 164.0 1171% 14.6 104% 17.0 -0.7% 459 108 +4% 35.7 18.0% 964 227 123% 170
7 A 1.08 07.7% 165.1 1179% 13.7 098% 09.1 +1.4% 468 102 +4% 19.1 11.4% 983 214 116% 160


July 30 was the first day that Barbie made less Domestic BO % of Budget than SoF did.
Then again on 5 and 6 August.

Took me a few days to build this table, but finally got it.


Given the constraints of this ancient website, that is an impressive table.

Quote:

It is currently taking about 7 days for Barbie WWBO to gain 100% on SoF.
Barbie will have Japan release this week.



Odd. SMB got a very late release in Japan as well. I doubt very much Barbie will get a significant bump from Japan like SMB did though.


Quote:

Barbie only has about 2 weeks of summer remaining, then it will likely plateau, or flatline. Not sure if it will be able to catch SMB once summer ends.


Yeah. I don't think it's going to outright flatline out of the blue, but you can already see the numbers coming back down to earth. It could stay in theaters as long as a movie like Guardians 3 did, with ever diminishing returns until it's making about $30 per theater.

Quote:

SoF doesn't need gobs of international sales to gain 100% more - only $14M.


Yeah. It could very well still beat M3GAN and take number 1. But that depends on if the international release is "REAL" or not. If it gets 700+ theaters in places like UK and Australia like Barbie did, it should not have any problems finishing out the year in first place. However, if this is simply a formality and they're going to just dump this movie in only about 50 theaters in each international location, the international box office numbers are only going to amount to a few million dollars.

Time will tell. It's a shame that the international release dates are so late and aren't even going to start until all the hype in the US has long died down.

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Friday, August 11, 2023 12:16 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
In List-Making news:

I still couldn't add any movies to the lists of actual money gained/lost on completed films for last week because some long-time movies are still stubbornly holding on to theater counts. Guardians 3 is still in 33 theaters and has grossed $25,402 since Friday. The Little Mermaid is still in 90 theaters and has grossed $61,262 since Friday. Super Mario Bros added 56 theaters back for a total of 152 theaters and has grossed $35,115 since Friday. The Flash is in 26 theaters and has grossed $68,653 since Friday.

Just pull them out already. In total, including all weekend, the 4 movies haven't even made in $171k. It's costing more at this point to pay the employees and keep the lights and A/C running for these showings.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.




Hey... Maybe we finally get to reconcile one of these movies and their total gains/losses after this weekend? Bruce's theater counts on the movies that are nearly out of the theater have been known to be wrong before though. It had looked like The Flash was out of theaters 2 weeks ago but it still held on.

It looks as though it's Guardians 3 that is finally being retired with no theaters on the list.

The Flash is still going to be shown in 16 theaters, SMB in 98 and The Little Mermaid in 65.

I don't get it.

A this point even Miles Morales should be yanked with how little per theater it's making, as well as Asteroid City and Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken. And I don't even care about those last two since they didn't even generate enough money to make it on any of my lists for 2023.

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Friday, August 11, 2023 4:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Thursday's Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+2%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,200% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,067% (+7%)

SoF needs 159% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 276% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 133% above Barbie.

SoF only makes $822k on Thursday, but was more than enough to go up another 7% like I said it would.

Barbie gets $7.15 Million and adds 7% as well. Should be about another 8% yesterday international though, for a grand total of around 38% as my guess so far for unreported international numbers. So after Monday-Thursday, the real difference between SoF and Barbie is likely 95% now.

The Super Mario Bros Movie wackiness continues. $2 Million more added back to the total today from yesterday, so we went up 2%. Make up your mind Bruce.

No movement at all with Insidious with it's first sub-$100k domestic day and no new international numbers in yet. It's basically dead at this point. But might still have some surprise international numbers like SMB keeps getting. Nothing that should matter in relation to Barbie or SoF in the long run though.

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Friday, August 11, 2023 4:23 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


As of this moment, Talk To Me still does not have any Box Office reported for last Friday, 4 August, just projections.

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Friday, August 11, 2023 4:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
But I have still been noticing trends, and I'll make a table to help show this.
I fully expect most folk will not have interest in this, but I think it is curious. Not only because Sound of Freedom is such a wonderful film, but also because it is breaking the mold, much like Maverick did last year.

Barbie has been benefitting from strong summer weekday sales, which SMB did not have. (SMB is a Seth Rogan film?) SoF has had strong Saturday and Sunday figures, the days when honest working folk are not working.

Over the weekend, Barbie made 53.0% of it's Production Budget. Sound of Freedom made 54.0% of it's Production Budget.

I m using $14M as the Production Budget figure for Sof, and $100M for Barbie. Barbie's international balances may bounce around, but this table is using the stated observation of 47.5% Domestic and 52.5% International.

All figures not tagged with % are Millions of Dollars.
For Barbie figures, the same figures are both $Millions, but also % of Production Budget.
1st column is Date.
2nd column is SoF Single Day BO.
3rd column is Single Day BO % of Budget.
4th and 5th are Total Cummulative Box Office, and then % of Budget.
6th and 7th are Last 7 Days of Box Office, and then % of Budget. All for Sound of Freedom.
8th column is Barbie single Day Domestic Box Office.
9th column is the % of Budget gain on SoF % for the same day.
10th column is the Total of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
11th column is the total of the Last 7 Days of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
12th is the % gain on SoF for the same Last 7 Day period.
13th column - 18th columns are the same things, but for Worldwide Box Office.



0000________Sound of Freedom_______ | _______________Barbie_______________________
000/00000 Domestic Box Office 00000\ / Domestic Box Office 0 Worldwide Box Office \
00000000 1 Day Acuml Total Last L 7D 0000 Gain 0000Lst7 Gain0000 Gain00000Lst7 Gain
00001Day %Budg Total %Budg 7Day %Bdg 1Day onSoF Ttl Day SoF 1Day onSoF Ttl Day SoF
27J 2.57 18.4% 136.5 0975% 31.9 228% 21.2 +2.8% 258 236 +8% 44.5 26.1% 542 496 268%
28J 3.77 26.9% 140.3 1002% 30.0 214% 29.0 +2.1% 287 239 25% 60.9 34.0% 603 502 288%
29J 4.81 34.4% 145.1 1036% 27.4 196% 34.5 +0.1% 322 204 +8% 72.5 38.1% 676 428 232%
30J 4.23 30.2% 149.3 1066% 24.9 178% 29.4 -0.8% 351 189 11% 61.7 31.5% 737 397 219%
31J 2.00 14.3% 151.3 1081% 23.7 169% 15.0 +0.7% 366 178 +9% 31.5 17.2% 769 374 205%
1 A 2.06 14.7% 153.4 1096% 22.4 160% 15.3 +0.6% 381 167 +7% 32.1 17.4% 800 351 191%
2 A 1.56 11.1% 155.0 1107% 21.0 150% 12.8 +1.7% 394 157 +7% 26.9 15.8% 827 330 180%
3 A 1.44 10.3% 156.4 1117% 19.9 142% 11.8 +1.5% 406 148 +6% 24.8 14.5% 853 311 169% 185
4 A 2.21 15.8% 158.6 1133% 18.3 131% 16.5 +0.7% 423 135 +4% 34.7 18.9% 888 284 153% 218
5 A 2.87 20.5% 161.5 1154% 16.4 117% 19.5 -1.0% 442 120 +3% 40.9 20.4% 928 252 135% 176
6 A 2.48 17.7% 164.0 1171% 14.6 104% 17.0 -0.7% 459 108 +4% 35.7 18.0% 964 227 123% 170
7 A 1.08 07.7% 165.1 1179% 13.7 098% 09.1 +1.4% 468 102 +4% 19.1 11.4% 983 214 116% 160
8 A 1.17 08.4% 166.2 1187% 12.8 091% 09.6 +1.2% 478 096 +5% 20.2 11.8% A04 202 111% 149
9 A 0.90 06.4% 167.1 1194% 12.1 086% 07.4 +1.0% 485 091 +5% 15.5 09.1% A19 191 105% 139
10A 0.82 05.9% 168.0 1200% 11.5 082% 07.1 +1.2% 492 086 +4% 14.9 09.0% A33 181 099% 130
Quote:


July 30 was the first day that Barbie made less Domestic BO % of Budget than SoF did.
Then again on 5 and 6 August.

--------------------
Took me a few days to build this table, but finally got it.

It is currently taking about 7 days for Barbie WWBO to gain 100% on SoF.
Barbie will have Japan release this week.

Thursday is the first day that the prior 7-Day period has Barbie's WWBO gaining less than 100% on SoF.
And SoF makes 1200% of it's Budget.

ETA: This is incorrect, and I was not able to delete it quickly. I should have not posted it. I am leaving it in place due to some discussion which follows.
I just noticed that Barbie actually does well on Sat & Sun with International, meaning the summer weekdays do not help as much in other countries. I don't know the cultural customs of cinema elsewhere.

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Friday, August 11, 2023 5:50 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362
8 Aug 1.170
9 Aug 0.900 7 $ 0303
10Aug 0.822 5 $ 0276


Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.

Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.

My suspicion for Wednesday was premature.
2 days later, on Friday, Mansion dropped to $724 per theater, and SoF held at 744 per theater.
On Sunday, Mansion had $763 per, and Sof had $836 per.

Bruce pointed out that the entire Box office, for the entire spectrum of movies, was down 11% from expected.

Mansion had lower $per than SoF on Monday and Wed, no Mansion figures for Thu.
No A24 figures, but now Bruce has placed rankings for the past 7 days.

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 10:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I just noticed that Barbie actually does well on Sat & Sun with International, meaning the summer weekdays do not help as much in other countries. I don't know the cultural customs of cinema elsewhere.



There is insufficient data to make that claim. We haven't seen any updates to international numbers for Barbie since Sunday/Monday, and we don't know how Bruce calculates anything.

If you're referring to the fact that there are countries on the International tab with dates of 8/8, 8/9 and even 8/11 on them, I could see where that could be confusing, but as far as any NEW money being added to the international total there has not been any new money since Sunday's $118 Million and the additional $31 Million that was added on Monday morning. The only gains that Barbie has had since that $31 Million addition to the International total were its Domestic gains from Monday to Thursday.

What I'm assuming here is that not only does Bruce reconcile whatever he can with the previous week on Sunday, but he is also given some new studio projections for the following week from some of the countries outside of the US where it's been shown, similar to how we'll get Saturday/Sunday projections by around noon on Saturday here in the states. However, unlike how the US box office shows the actual numbers fairly quickly after projections are given, the International numbers lag very far behind that and are handled very opaquely. In fact, I'd say that we're in a position where we just have to take Bruce's and the Studios' words on the international numbers altogether because outside of them being posted there's no other actual evidence presented to us that any of those numbers are even real in the first place, and we're never given any explanation about projections and reconciliation.

This would certainly explain all the strangeness I started to notice in many of the top 50 worldwide movies, particularly at the end of their runs. Some weeks a movie will make $3 Million stateside and yet by the end of that week the Worldwide Gross went down $1 Million. Then a month later that same movie makes $200k Domestic and it goes up $6 Million Worldwide.

I now believe that this stuff happens all the time to every movie. Most folk just wouldn't notice it since almost nobody is paying as close attention to any of this as we are doing. Hell... It took me quite a long time to notice it myself, and really it only becomes very obvious when big-budget flicks near the end of their runs. Look through my posts and you'll see me mention this quite a few times about Super Mario Bros and Guardians 3. It even happened with the lower-budget The Bogeyman, with that movie posting some insane gains of around $10 Million one week late into its run when it didn't make much at all here in the states.

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 11:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Mansion had lower $per than SoF on Monday and Wed, no Mansion figures for Thu.



They're up now. Haunted Mansion had $283 compared to SoF's $276 on Thursday. It made about $134k more than SoF.

Bruce's prediction for the weekend is $4,990,000 for Sound of Freedom and $5,220,000 for Haunted Mansion.

That could go either way, since his predictions for the 3 days on both movies are only about half the difference between Haunted Mansion and Sound of Freedom on Cheap Seat Tuesday alone.

In any event, we're probably only around a week from Haunted Mansion being another mega-budget movie that never makes as much per day as Sound of Freedom before the end of both of their runs. Maybe less.

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 4:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362 7
8 Aug 1.170 6 $ 0393 8
9 Aug 0.900 8 $ 0303 7
10Aug 0.822 7 $ 0276 9


Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.

Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.
-----------------
My suspicion for Wednesday was premature.
2 days later, on Friday, Mansion dropped to $724 per theater, and SoF held at 744 per theater.
On Sunday, Mansion had $763 per, and Sof had $836 per.

Bruce pointed out that the entire Box office, for the entire spectrum of movies, was down 11% from expected.

Mansion had lower $per than SoF on Monday and Wed, no Mansion figures for Thu.
No A24 figures, but now Bruce has placed rankings for the past 7 days.

Talk To Me figures finally posted for the past week, about 2 hours ago. So I updated.

Last week, I balked when Angel Studios projected that Sunday would make less than Friday - for the first time in their run. And I will have the same reaction if they do the same this weekend.
Still no SoF for last night.

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 6:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


So do you understand what I've said about international numbers? Do you have any arguments to my view on them?

Talk To Me wasn't even on my radar, especially since Bruce didn't have any figures for it until now. The only reason that I'd have even taken notice of it was because of its relation to SoF, if not for you mentioning it.

It just occurred to me that as the year goes on, there's probably going to be quite a few flicks that would have made my lists that won't make my lists anymore, since I'm not really focusing on anything that didn't make the top 50 worldwide.

Right now, if you look at the top worldwide list for 2023, there are already 5 movies that I'm tracking that have fallen out of the top 50. Magic Mike's Last Dance (53), 65 (54), Knock at the Cabin (55), Mummies (56), Jesus Revolution (57).

Talk to me is at 67 now, and likely won't make $65 Million to get to number 50. But at the same time, it appears that it only had a budget of $5, so the 620% that it's already made on PB vs. WWBO in only 15 days is impressive and should be represented.

I've also missed putting the major flop Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken and its $70 Million budget vs. $42 Million Worlwide take because it's only gotten as high as 64. (I was rooting for that one, but sadly it didn't do well at all).

I may have to expand the list of movies that I'm covering at some point. I did already add Haunted Mansion and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem to my lists last week even though they were nowhere near the top 50 just because I knew they would make it. They're now at 48 and 49.

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Saturday, August 12, 2023 10:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It looks as though I probably won't be able to officially update the list today since Bruce still doesn't have Sound of Freedom numbers up after 9PM. Weird.

I'm going to do it anyhow though with my best guesstimate of what SoF did today. Since it was so close to the next million, I doubt very much it made so little that it can't be rounded up to $2 Million above yesterday, and I also doubt it made enough to be rounded up to $3 Million as well, so +14% for the day it is unless the numbers come out and prove that wrong.

(I was wrong. SoF got $1,330,601 on Friday, so it gets a 7% increase for the day).


Friday's Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,207% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,077% (+10%)

SoF needs 152% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 269% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 130% above Barbie. (Probably only 80% with unreported international numbers)


I'm going to give another 12% international for Friday night to Barbie, so after the international numbers from Monday to Friday are added, it's likely about 1,127%.



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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 13, 2023 10:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I was wrong. SoF made $1,330,601 on Friday, so the 2nd round up can't happen on Friday. So it will get 7% for Friday and the 14% on Saturday.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 13, 2023 11:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce's predictions for SoF were pretty good this weekend at $4,990,000. It's projected to have made $4,832,374.

Friday: $1,339,700; Saturday: $1,940,819; Sunday: $1,551,855

This means that if Angel Studio's projections for the weekend are correct, and so are Paramounts for MI7, that MI7 did somehow manage to outperform SoF for a single day on Saturday. We'll see if that happened when the real numbers come out on Monday.


Quote:


They're up now. Haunted Mansion had $283 compared to SoF's $276 on Thursday. It made about $134k more than SoF.

Bruce's prediction for the weekend is $4,990,000 for Sound of Freedom and $5,220,000 for Haunted Mansion.

That could go either way, since his predictions for the 3 days on both movies are only about half the difference between Haunted Mansion and Sound of Freedom on Cheap Seat Tuesday alone.

In any event, we're probably only around a week from Haunted Mansion being another mega-budget movie that never makes as much per day as Sound of Freedom before the end of both of their runs. Maybe less.



Haunted Mansion did a little better than Bruce's $5,220,000 thought it would:

Friday: $1,530,000; Saturday: $2,400,000; Sunday: $1,684,000 = $5,614,000

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Sunday, August 13, 2023 11:13 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Saturday/Sunday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+29%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,101% (+24%)

SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 135% above Barbie. (Probably only 58% with unreported international numbers)


*Super Mario Bros projections aren't in yet, and no new international numbers appear to be either. It only made $7k at Friday's box office though so it's safe to say it's a 0% gain until some new international wackiness happens when those numbers are readjusted.

No new numbers to Insidious overseas. It's projected to have made $475k this weekend domestic.

I'm going to give another 27% international for Saturday and Sunday to Barbie for a total of 77% more for the week once the international numbers come in on Sunday/Monday. so after the international numbers from Monday to Friday are added, it's likely about 1,178%.

Barbie will have overtaken Insidious for 4th place once the international numbers are in.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 13, 2023 6:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Saturday/Sunday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+29%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,101% (+24%)

SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 135% above Barbie. (Probably only 58% with unreported international numbers)


*Super Mario Bros projections aren't in yet, and no new international numbers appear to be either. It only made $7k at Friday's box office though so it's safe to say it's a 0% gain until some new international wackiness happens when those numbers are readjusted.

No new numbers to Insidious overseas. It's projected to have made $475k this weekend domestic.

I'm going to give another 27% international for Saturday and Sunday to Barbie for a total of 77% more for the week once the international numbers come in on Sunday/Monday. so after the international numbers from Monday to Friday are added, it's likely about 1,178%.

Barbie will have overtaken Insidious for 4th place once the international numbers are in.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.



It looks like Bruce got his international numbers in for Barbie:

Saturday/Sunday Numbers (Post International Update):

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+0%)
4. Barbie - 1,184% (+83%)
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+19%)


SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 52% above Barbie. (6% less than my after-international prediction)

Insidious gets a 19% bump from international accounting. I should just probably call it "accounting" from now on with the international numbers because there's no way it got a 19% bump from ticket sales overseas in the last week when it didn't even earn $1 Million in the states this week. This must be some more of that late-game built-in international jenk that happens to movies.

Barbie slightly outpaced my prediction of 77% more with International numbers and came in with 83% additional. This is, of course, assuming that Bruce doesn't add additional numbers to the movie again on Monday like he did last week. I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet he doesn't do that this time because he put the international gains for last week into print this time, and it's why I even knew he had them since I wasn't going to look at numbers anymore today and wait for tomorrow when I can update the lists.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/254810830-Weekend-projections-its-ano
ther-Barbenheimer-weekend-at-the-box-office




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Monday, August 14, 2023 11:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Barbie's Production Budget was $145 Million. Not the $100 Million that Bruce says it was on The-Numbers.com. That was the original budget before reshoots and other things caused it to balloon to $145 Million. To see citations for this, look at this post in the Barbie and Oppenheimer thread:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=36&tid=65670&mid=11790
48#1179048


Here are the updated percentage numbers with that new knowledge.

Quote:

Saturday/Sunday Numbers (Post International Update):

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+0%)
4. Barbie - 1,184% (+83%)
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+19%)


SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 52% above Barbie. (6% less than my after-international prediction)




Saturday/Sunday Numbers (Post Actual Barbie Production Budget Update):

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+0%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 817% (-367%)

SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 419% above Barbie.

This knocks Barbie back down well below Insidious to 5th place. Barbie doesn't drop any lower than 5th place on the list with this revelation, however, since 6th place belongs to Evil Dead Rise with only 768%.

Barbie doesn't have a chance anymore of hitting #1 on this list. In fact, I think it would be lucky to rise high enough to unseat Insidious. Not only did it lose 367% immediately with the real budget taken into account, but it also means that every percentage point it moves up going forward will cost more money than it was up until this point.


I will not go back and make adjustments to the previous 4 weekly lists, but I will be sure to adjust all of them accordingly with this new data when I get around to making the new weekly lists tonight or tomorrow, as this will have effects on other lists as well.

For instance, this will drop Barbie to 5th place on the Production Budget vs. Worldwide Opening Weekend and put it behind Sound of Freedom which gets 4th place with 300% vs. Barbie's drop from 356% down to only 246%. It will also have taken 4 days for Barbie to break even instead of only 3, which will drop it 1 place behind Evil Dead Rise and they will switch their 4th and 5th place showings on List 4.

*****

With $18 Million to beat SMB and $34 Million to beat M3GAN and likely not a single other movie this year which will get close to topping the list, if Sound of Freedom does even moderately well overseas it now has a clear path to the top of the list for Production Budget vs. Worldwide Gross.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 5:33 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6
12Aug 1.965
13Aug 1.551

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362 7
8 Aug 1.170 6 $ 0393 8
9 Aug 0.900 8 $ 0303 7
10Aug 0.822 7 $ 0276 9
11Aug 1.351

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.

Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.
-----------------
My suspicion for Wednesday was premature.
2 days later, on Friday, Mansion dropped to $724 per theater, and SoF held at 744 per theater.
On Sunday, Mansion had $763 per, and Sof had $836 per.

Bruce pointed out that the entire Box office, for the entire spectrum of movies, was down 11% from expected.

Mansion had lower $per than SoF on Monday and Wed, no Mansion figures for Thu.
No A24 figures, but now Bruce has placed rankings for the past 7 days.
--------------------
Talk To Me figures finally posted for the past week, about 2 hours ago. So I updated.

Last week, I balked when Angel Studios projected that Sunday would make less than Friday - for the first time in their run. And I will have the same reaction if they do the same this weekend.
Still no SoF for last night.

I had said that SoF would surpass the Domestic BO of Indy5 on Saturday, but it waited until Sunday to do so.

If trends continue, I expect SoF to gain another 50% this week (end 20 Aug), and another 30% the next week (end 27 Aug), making it about 1315%.
Using Oppy as a guide, 1/5 of the International Box Office comes from UK, Australia, Mexico. i expect $18M from these 3, which would make it about 1445% when these are tallied. Australia starts trickling in after 24 Aug, and UK/Mexico after 1 Sep.

I do understand that barbie has a Production Budget of $145M. However, my other table is done to show the numerical trends I had noticed, and I will continue that without changing the denominator, to demonstrate the trend.
If Barbie had continued the trend, I had seen that Barbie would overtake SoF in 2 weeks, and then 2 weeks later would fall below SoF again. That would be IF the summer weekdays continued past 20 Aug, and SoF had no Box office from International.



The weekend predictions had the Box Office falling by 50%, about $105M. But the projections indicate about $111M Box office, so that would be an increase. Bruce had mentioned that he was tinkering with his formulas for weekend predictions, but he thought that would affect Barbie more than others.

Bruce predicted less drop for Barbie than SoF, I thought that was incorrect.
Compared to predictions, the projections for Barbie are higher than those for SoF. I thought that fishy.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 5:37 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I just noticed that Barbie actually does well on Sat & Sun with International, meaning the summer weekdays do not help as much in other countries. I don't know the cultural customs of cinema elsewhere.



There is insufficient data to make that claim. We haven't seen any updates to international numbers for Barbie since Sunday/Monday, and we don't know how Bruce calculates anything.

If you're referring to the fact that there are countries on the International tab with dates of 8/8, 8/9 and even 8/11 on them, I could see where that could be confusing, but as far as any NEW money being added to the international total there has not been any new money since Sunday's $118 Million and the additional $31 Million that was added on Monday morning. The only gains that Barbie has had since that $31 Million addition to the International total were its Domestic gains from Monday to Thursday.

What I'm assuming here is that not only does Bruce reconcile whatever he can with the previous week on Sunday, but he is also given some new studio projections for the following week from some of the countries outside of the US where it's been shown, similar to how we'll get Saturday/Sunday projections by around noon on Saturday here in the states. However, unlike how the US box office shows the actual numbers fairly quickly after projections are given, the International numbers lag very far behind that and are handled very opaquely. In fact, I'd say that we're in a position where we just have to take Bruce's and the Studios' words on the international numbers altogether because outside of them being posted there's no other actual evidence presented to us that any of those numbers are even real in the first place, and we're never given any explanation about projections and reconciliation.

This would certainly explain all the strangeness I started to notice in many of the top 50 worldwide movies, particularly at the end of their runs. Some weeks a movie will make $3 Million stateside and yet by the end of that week the Worldwide Gross went down $1 Million. Then a month later that same movie makes $200k Domestic and it goes up $6 Million Worldwide.

I now believe that this stuff happens all the time to every movie. Most folk just wouldn't notice it since almost nobody is paying as close attention to any of this as we are doing. Hell... It took me quite a long time to notice it myself, and really it only becomes very obvious when big-budget flicks near the end of their runs. Look through my posts and you'll see me mention this quite a few times about Super Mario Bros and Guardians 3. It even happened with the lower-budget The Bogeyman, with that movie posting some insane gains of around $10 Million one week late into its run when it didn't make much at all here in the states.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

I was in error. I thought I noticed something which was not actually there. I should have deleted that, but ran out of time. You are correct.

Because you have brought it up, I have not deleted it from the original post.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 6:01 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I was in error. I thought I noticed something which was not actually there. I should have deleted that, but ran out of time. You are correct.

Because you have brought it up, I have not deleted it from the original post.



Noted, and I did reply to you in the other thread as well.


They just got the official numbers up for the weekend about 15 minutes ago. I'll probably get around to updating the 4 lists tonight. I might even branch out further than the top 50 to add some notable movies that wouldn't otherwise make the lists with only looking at the top 50 worldwide this late in the year.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 8:08 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
But I have still been noticing trends, and I'll make a table to help show this.
I fully expect most folk will not have interest in this, but I think it is curious. Not only because Sound of Freedom is such a wonderful film, but also because it is breaking the mold, much like Maverick did last year.

Barbie has been benefitting from strong summer weekday sales, which SMB did not have. (SMB is a Seth Rogan film?) SoF has had strong Saturday and Sunday figures, the days when honest working folk are not working.

Over the weekend, Barbie made 53.0% of it's Production Budget. Sound of Freedom made 54.0% of it's Production Budget.

I m using $14M as the Production Budget figure for Sof, and $100M for Barbie. Barbie's international balances may bounce around, but this table is using the stated observation of 47.5% Domestic and 52.5% International.

All figures not tagged with % are Millions of Dollars.
For Barbie figures, the same figures are both $Millions, but also % of Production Budget.
1st column is Date.
2nd column is SoF Single Day BO.
3rd column is Single Day BO % of Budget.
4th and 5th are Total Cummulative Box Office, and then % of Budget.
6th and 7th are Last 7 Days of Box Office, and then % of Budget. All for Sound of Freedom.
8th column is Barbie single Day Domestic Box Office.
9th column is the % of Budget gain on SoF % for the same day.
10th column is the Total of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
11th column is the total of the Last 7 Days of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
12th is the % gain on SoF for the same Last 7 Day period.
13th column - 18th columns are the same things, but for Worldwide Box Office.



0000________Sound of Freedom_______ | _______________Barbie_______________________
000/00000 Domestic Box Office 00000\ / Domestic Box Office 0 Worldwide Box Office \
00000000 1 Day Acuml Total Last L 7D 0000 Gain 00000Lst Gain0000 Gain000000Lst Gain
00001Day %Budg Total %Budg 7Day %Bdg 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF
27J 2.57 18.4% 136.5 0975% 31.9 228% 21.2 +2.8% 258 236 +8% 44.5 26.1% 542 496 268%
28J 3.77 26.9% 140.3 1002% 30.0 214% 29.0 +2.1% 287 239 25% 60.9 34.0% 603 502 288%
29J 4.81 34.4% 145.1 1036% 27.4 196% 34.5 +0.1% 322 204 +8% 72.5 38.1% 676 428 232%
30J 4.23 30.2% 149.3 1066% 24.9 178% 29.4 -0.8% 351 189 11% 61.7 31.5% 737 397 219%
31J 2.00 14.3% 151.3 1081% 23.7 169% 15.0 +0.7% 366 178 +9% 31.5 17.2% 769 374 205%
1 A 2.06 14.7% 153.4 1096% 22.4 160% 15.3 +0.6% 381 167 +7% 32.1 17.4% 800 351 191%
2 A 1.56 11.1% 155.0 1107% 21.0 150% 12.8 +1.7% 394 157 +7% 26.9 15.8% 827 330 180%
3 A 1.44 10.3% 156.4 1117% 19.9 142% 11.8 +1.5% 406 148 +6% 24.8 14.5% 853 311 169% 185
4 A 2.21 15.8% 158.6 1133% 18.3 131% 16.5 +0.7% 423 135 +4% 34.7 18.9% 888 284 153% 218
5 A 2.87 20.5% 161.5 1154% 16.4 117% 19.5 -1.0% 442 120 +3% 40.9 20.4% 928 252 135% 176
6 A 2.48 17.7% 164.0 1171% 14.6 104% 17.0 -0.7% 459 108 +4% 35.7 18.0% 964 227 123% 170
7 A 1.08 07.7% 165.1 1179% 13.7 098% 09.1 +1.4% 468 102 +4% 19.1 11.4% 983 214 116% 160
8 A 1.17 08.4% 166.2 1187% 12.8 091% 09.6 +1.2% 478 096 +5% 20.2 11.8% A04 202 111% 149
9 A 0.90 06.4% 167.1 1194% 12.1 086% 07.4 +1.0% 485 091 +5% 15.5 09.1% A19 191 105% 139
10A 0.82 05.9% 168.0 1200% 11.5 082% 07.1 +1.2% 492 086 +4% 14.9 09.0% A33 181 099% 130
11A 1.35 09.7% 169.3 1209% 10.7 076% 10.0 +0.3% 502 080 +4% 21.0 11.3% A54 168 092% 116
12A 1.96 14.0% 171.3 1224% 09.8 070% 13.2 -0.8% 516 073 +3% 27.7 13.7% A84 153 083% 099
13A 1.55 11.1% 172.8 1235% 08.8 063% 10.6 -0.5% 526 067 +4% 22.3 11.2% B05 141 078% 086
Quote:


July 30 was the first day that Barbie made less Domestic BO % of Budget than SoF did.
Then again on 5 and 6 August.

--------------------
Took me a few days to build this table, but finally got it.

It is currently taking about 7 days for Barbie WWBO to gain 100% on SoF.
Barbie will have Japan release this week.



Over the weekend, Barbie Domestic earned 33.8% of $100M, and SoF earned 34.8% of $14M.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 10:58 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


UPDATED LISTS: Late-Evening of 08/14 on The-Numbers...

LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend including all American made films currently in the global top 50, or those that were earlier in the year and have been pushed off.

1 Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2 The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3 M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4 Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
5 Barbie / Budget: $145,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 246%
6 Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
7 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
8 The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
9 Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
10 Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
11 John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
12 Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
13 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
14 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
15 Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
16 Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
17 Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
18 Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
19 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
20 Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 / Budget: $290,000,000 / WWO: $235,000,000 81%
21 Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
22 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $52,000,000 / 74%
23 The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
24 The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
25 Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
26 No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
27 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
28 Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
29 AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
30 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
31 The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $75,000,000 / 38%
32 Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
33 Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
34 Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%

SPECIAL MENTION:
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

Winners:

1. M3GAN made 1,475% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros Movie made 1,359% of its production budget of $100 Million.
3. Sound of Freedom made 1,236% of its production budget of $14 Million.
4. Insidious: The Red Door made 1,163% of its production budget of $16 Million.
5. Barbie made 819% of its production budget of $145 Million.
6. Evil Dead Rise made 768% of its production budget of $19 Million. [FINAL]
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse made 683% of its production budget of $100 Million.
8. Oppenheimer made 648% of its production budget of $100 Million.
9. Scream IV made 483% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
10. Mummies made 442% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
11. John Wick: Chapter 4 made 432% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
12. The Pope's Exorcist made 405% of its production budget of $18 Million. [FINAL]
13. Creed III made 365% of its production budget of $75 Million. [FINAL]
14. Jesus Revolution made 353% of its production budget of $15 Million. [FINAL]
15. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 made 338% of its production budget of $250 Million. [FINAL]
16. Knock at the Cabin made 275% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
17. Cocaine Bear made 254% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
18. The Boogeyman made 234% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
19. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania made 232% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
20. The Little Mermaid made 225% of its production budget of $250 Million.
21. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts made 224% of its production budget of $195 Million. [FINAL]
22. Elemental made 222% of its production budget of $200 Million.
23. Fast X made 211% of its production budget of $340 Million. [FINAL]
24. Meg 2: The Trench made 200% of its production budget of $129 Million.


Losers* (The movies who haven't doubled their production budget to cover marketing budgets and theater takes. Unless marked with [FINAL], they still have an opportunity to leave the Losers list.):

1. Haunted Mansion made 48% of its production budget of $158 Million.
2. Shazam: Fury of the Gods only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny made 123% of its production budget of $300 Million.
4. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
5. Magic Mike's Last Dance only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
6. AIR only made 129% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem made 134% of its production budget of $70 Million.
8. The Flash only made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
9. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 made 180% of its production budget of $290 Million.
11. No Hard Feelings made 187% of its production budget of $45 Million.



LIST 3: TOTAL STUDIO PROFITS AFTER MOVIE EXITS BOX OFFICE (BASED OFF 2X RULE OF THUMB):

[Worldwide Box Office - (Production Budget *2)]


1. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 + $345,095,527
2. John Wick: Chapter 4 + $232,249,673
3. M3GAN + $156,902,618
4. Creed III + $124,448,615
5. Evil Dead Rise + $108,017,671
6. Scream IV + $98,834,132
7. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania + $63,635,303
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts + $46,595,127
9. Fast X + $38,989,106
10. The Pope's Exorcist + $36,913,467
11. Mummies + $29,172,225
12. Jesus Revolution + $23,150,304
13. Cocaine Bear + $19,301,105
14. Knock at the Cabin + $14,712,293
15: The Bogeyman + $12,351,335

TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,350,368,501

*NOTE: Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts appear to have ended their Domestic run on August 10th. It looks as though The Flash did as well, but we've been fooled by The Flash before. I've added them all here for now, but like I've said before I'm going to have to go back at some point a few months from now and make sure the international numbers didn't change the final counts.

Losers
1. The Flash - $131,881,839
2. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $117,807,638
3. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $92,105,230
4. AIR - $50,551,734
5. 65 - $33,758,973
6. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $33,729,498

TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$459,750,588

TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$890,617,913

*NOTE: This is the total Worldwide Box Office profits using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb. I will eventually get around to adding the 2.5x Rule of Thumb for comparison. I may wait until the year is over so I'm not re-doing all that math every time Bruce adds or subtracts international numbers after the movie finishes its run.



LIST 4: DAYS IT TOOK FOR THE FILM TO BREAK EVEN (FOR 2.0X RULE OF THUMB):

Short Explanation: Take the movie's % of Domestic/International, consider that the constant split for the entire run of the movie. Use those percentages to figure out what day it made enough in the US to have made twice the production budget with the international figure on that day. Tie breaker for days goes to the movie that made the most money above two times the production budget.

(The least scientific of the three lists, but all we can work with given the abysmal state of keeping track of international numbers in 2023)

Also, until a movie is finished, this list would bounce around all over the place, so I'm not going to update any of these numbers going forward until a movie is [FINAL] and the movie will just stay in whatever place it falls on the day I put it on this list until the movie ends its theatrical run.

1. Insidious: The Red Door: 1 Day / $15M Domestic : $14M Needed (45%D / 55%I)
2. M3GAN: 1 Day / $12M Domestic : $12M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
3. Super Mario Bros. Movie: 3 Days / $113M Domestic : $84M Needed (42%D / 58%I)
4. Evil Dead Rise: 3 Days / $19M Domestic : $17M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
5. Barbie: 4 Days / $162M Domestic : $133M Needed (46%D / 54%I)
6. Miles Morales 2: 4 Days / $120M Domestic : $112M Needed (56%D / 44%I)
7. Oppenheimer: 4 Days / $95M Domestic : $88M Needed (44%D / 56%I)
8. Scream IV: 4 Days / $48M Domestic : $45M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
9. Sound of Freedom: 5 Days / $34M Domestic : $28M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
10. The Pope's Exorcist: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (27%D / 73%I) [FINAL]
11. John Wick: Chapter 4: 5 Days / $86M Domestic : $86M Needed (43%D / 57%I) [FINAL]
12. Creed III: 9 Days / $94M Domestic : $86M Needed (57%D / 43%I) [FINAL]
13. Jesus Revolution: 10 Days / $30M Domestic : $29M Needed (98%D / 2%I) [FINAL]
14. Meg 2: The Trench: 10 Days / $54M Domestic: $54M Needed (21%D / 69%I)
15. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: 11 Days / $220M Domestic : $215M Needed (43%D / 57%I)
16. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: 12 Days / $107M Domestic : $107M Needed (37%D / 63%I)
17. Knock at the Cabin: 15 Days / $27M Domestic : $27M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
18. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: 17 Days / $187M Domestic : $184M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
19. Cocaine Bear: 17 Days / $52M Domestic : $50M Needed (72%D / 28%I) [FINAL]
20. Mummies: 20 Days / $2M Domestic : $2M Needed (8%D / 92%I) [FINAL]
21. Fast X: 23 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (20%D / 80%I) [FINAL]
22: The Bogeyman: 23 Days / $37M Domestic : $36M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
23. The Little Mermaid: 30 Days / $268M Domestic : $265M Needed (53%D / 47%I)
24. Elemental: 38 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (34%D / 66%I)


2023 LIKELY EVENTUAL WINNERS:
1. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 - $422M in total vs $580M needed.
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $94M in total vs $140M needed.


2023 MOVIES LIKELY (OR CERTAINLY IF FINAL) TO NEVER BREAK EVEN:
1. Haunted Mansion - $76M of $316M needed.
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $370M of $600M needed.
3. The Flash - $268M of $400M needed. [FINAL]
4. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $132M of $250M needed. [FINAL]
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $208M of $300M needed. [FINAL]
6. AIR - $90M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
7. 65 - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
8. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
9. No Hard Feelings - $84M of $90M needed.


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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 11:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I didn't feel like taking the time to add any new movies yet for this week.

Movies that are on my radar and their worldwide ranking are as follows:

Asteroid City: 57
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken: 63
80 for Brady: 64
Talk to Me: 66
Renfield: 71
Guy Ritchie's The Covenant: 78


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Tuesday, August 15, 2023 2:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


UPDATED LISTS: This is after the 08/14 update. I decided to add any US produced movie in the top 80 Worldwide as of today, as long as I could find a production budget for it.

LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

As of 08/15/2023, this list includes Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend for all American made films currently in the global top 80 that had Production Budget info available.

1. Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3. M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4. Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
5. Barbie / Budget: $145,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 246%
6. Talk to me / Budget: $4,500,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 222%
7. Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
9. The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
10. Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
11. Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
12. John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
13. Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
14. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
15. The Blackening / Budget: $5,000,000 / WWO: $6,000,000 / 120%
16. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
17. Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
18. Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
19. Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
20. Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
21. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
22. Mission Impossible: Dead Reck Pt1 / Budget: $290,000,000 / WWO: $235,000,000 / 81%
23. Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
24. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant M / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $52,000,000 / 74%
25. The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
26. The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $128,000,000 / 64%
26. The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
27. Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
28. Book Club: The Next Chapter / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 50%
29. No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
30. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Th / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
31. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
32. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
33. AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
34. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
35. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
36. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
37. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
38. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
39. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
40. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
41. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant / Budget: $55,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 13%
42. Renfield / Budget: $86,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 12%

*NOTE: I had to bump The Flash up on this list. I had it at Number 35 with a worldwide opening of $75 Million vs the $200M production budget (38%). For the 3-day weekend (excluding the holiday), it actually made $128M worldwide for a 26th place showing with 64%.

I'll remove this note on the next list.

As always, I strive for perfection on this list, but if you see that I got anything wrong please provide links and I will fix the problem. Thanks!



I CAN'T FIND OPENING WEEKEND STATS FOR THESE MOVIES:
Asteroid City / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Missing / Budget: $7,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Operation Fortune / Budget: $50,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?

*NOTE: I couldn't even find production budgets for the Demon Slayer anime film or the Woody Harrelson movie Champions, so I'm not even putting them on the lists unless I do. If anybody happens upon any info for either of those movies, or the opening weekend numbers for those two and the movies listed above, send me a link and I'll update the list.



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

WINNERS:
1. M3GAN made 1,475% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros Movie made 1,359% of its production budget of $100 Million.
3. Sound of Freedom made 1,236% of its production budget of $14 Million.
4. Insidious: The Red Door made 1,163% of its production budget of $16 Million.
5. Barbie made 819% of its production budget of $145 Million.
6. Talk to Me made 800% of its production budget of $4.5 Million.
7. Evil Dead Rise made 768% of its production budget of $19 Million. [FINAL]
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse made 683% of its production budget of $100 Million.
9. Oppenheimer made 648% of its production budget of $100 Million.
10. Missing made 642% of its production budget of $7 Million. [FINAL]
11. Scream IV made 483% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
12. Mummies made 442% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
13. John Wick: Chapter 4 made 432% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
14. The Pope's Exorcist made 405% of its production budget of $18 Million. [FINAL]
15. Creed III made 365% of its production budget of $75 Million. [FINAL]
16. The Blackening made 360% of its production budget of $5 Million. [FINAL]
17. Jesus Revolution made 353% of its production budget of $15 Million. [FINAL]
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 made 338% of its production budget of $250 Million. [FINAL]
19. Knock at the Cabin made 275% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
20. Cocaine Bear made 254% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
21. The Boogeyman made 234% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
22. Ant Man & the Wasp: Quantum made 232% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
23. The Little Mermaid made 225% of its production budget of $250 Million.
24. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts made 224% of its production budget of $195 Million. [FINAL]
25. Elemental made 222% of its production budget of $200 Million.
26. Fast X made 211% of its production budget of $340 Million. [FINAL]
27. Meg 2: The Trench made 200% of its production budget of $129 Million.


LOSERS:
The movies which haven't doubled their production budget to cover marketing budgets and theater takes. Unless marked with [FINAL], they still have an opportunity make the Winners list.

1. Renfield made 31% of its production budget of $86 Million. [FINAL]
2. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant made 36% of its production budget of $55 Million. [FINAL]
3. Haunted Mansion made 48% of its production budget of $158 Million.
4. Operation Fortune made 56% of its production budget of $50 Million. [FINAL]
5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 60% of its production budget of $70 Million.
6. Are You There God? IM, M made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million. [FINAL]
7. Shazam: FotG only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
8. Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 123% of its production budget of $300 Million.
9. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
10. Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
11. AIR only made 129% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
12. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM made 134% of its production budget of $70 Million.
13. The Flash only made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
14. Dungeons & Dragon: HAT only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
15. Book Club: TSC made 140% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
16. 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million. [FINAL]
17. Mission Impossible: DR Part 1 made 180% of its production budget of $290 Million.
18. No Hard Feelings made 187% of its production budget of $45 Million.
19. Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million. [FINAL]
20. Asteroid City made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million.


LIST 3: TOTAL STUDIO PROFITS AFTER MOVIE EXITS BOX OFFICE (BASED OFF 2X RULE OF THUMB):

[Worldwide Box Office - (Production Budget *2)]

1. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 + $345,095,527
2. John Wick: Chapter 4 + $232,249,673
3. M3GAN + $156,902,618
4. Creed III + $124,448,615
5. Evil Dead Rise + $108,017,671
6. Scream IV + $98,834,132
7. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania + $63,635,303
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts + $46,595,127
9. Fast X + $38,989,106
10. The Pope's Exorcist + $36,913,467
11. Missing +$31,100,756
12. Mummies + $29,172,225
13. Jesus Revolution + $23,150,304
14. Cocaine Bear + $19,301,105
15. Knock at the Cabin + $14,712,293
16. The Bogeyman + $12,351,335
17. The Blackening +$7,707,207

TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,389,176,464

*NOTE: Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts appear to have ended their Domestic run on August 10th. It looks as though The Flash did as well, but we've been fooled by The Flash before. I've added them all here for now, but like I've said before I'm going to have to go back at some point a few months from now and make sure the international numbers didn't change the final counts.

LOSERS:
1. Renfield -$145,273,677
2. The Flash - $131,881,839
3. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $117,807,638
4. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $92,105,230
5. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant -$89,622,587
6. Operation Fortune -$72,452,850
7. AIR - $50,551,734
8. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret -$38,501,808
9. 65 - $33,758,973
10. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $33,729,498
11. Book Club: The Second Chapter -$11,868,555
12. 80 for Brady -$7,733,910
13. Plane -$2,144,650


TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$827,348,625

TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$561,827,839

*NOTE: This is the total Worldwide Box Office profits using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb. I will eventually get around to adding the 2.5x Rule of Thumb for comparison. I may wait until the year is over so I'm not re-doing all that math every time Bruce adds or subtracts international numbers after the movie finishes its run.



LIST 4: DAYS IT TOOK FOR THE FILM TO BREAK EVEN (FOR 2.0X RULE OF THUMB):

Short Explanation: Take the movie's % of Domestic/International, consider that the constant split for the entire run of the movie. Use those percentages to figure out what day it made enough in the US to have made twice the production budget with the international figure on that day. Tie breaker for days goes to the movie that made the most money above two times the production budget.

(The least scientific of the three lists, but all we can work with given the abysmal state of keeping track of international numbers in 2023)

Also, until a movie is finished, this list would bounce around all over the place, so I'm not going to update any of these numbers going forward until a movie is [FINAL] and the movie will just stay in whatever place it falls on the day I put it on this list until the movie ends its theatrical run.

1. Insidious: The Red Door: 1 Day / $15M Domestic : $14M Needed (45%D / 55%I)
2. M3GAN: 1 Day / $12M Domestic : $12M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
3. Super Mario Bros. Movie: 3 Days / $113M Domestic : $84M Needed (42%D / 58%I)
4. Evil Dead Rise: 3 Days / $19M Domestic : $17M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
5. Talk to Me: 3 Days / $9M Domestic : $8M Needed (86%D / 14%I)
6. Barbie: 4 Days / $162M Domestic : $133M Needed (46%D / 54%I)
7. Miles Morales 2: 4 Days / $120M Domestic : $112M Needed (56%D / 44%I)
8. Oppenheimer: 4 Days / $95M Domestic : $88M Needed (44%D / 56%I)
9. Scream IV: 4 Days / $48M Domestic : $45M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
10. Sound of Freedom: 5 Days / $34M Domestic : $28M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
11. The Pope's Exorcist: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (27%D / 73%I) [FINAL]
12. Missing: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (73%D / 27%I)
13. John Wick: Chapter 4: 5 Days / $86M Domestic : $86M Needed (43%D / 57%I) [FINAL]
14. Creed III: 9 Days / $94M Domestic : $86M Needed (57%D / 43%I) [FINAL]
15. Jesus Revolution: 10 Days / $30M Domestic : $29M Needed (98%D / 2%I) [FINAL]
16. Meg 2: The Trench: 10 Days / $54M Domestic: $54M Needed (21%D / 69%I)
17. The Blackening: 10 Days / $10M Domestic : $10M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: 11 Days / $220M Domestic : $215M Needed (43%D / 57%I)
19. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: 12 Days / $107M Domestic : $107M Needed (37%D / 63%I)
20. Knock at the Cabin: 15 Days / $27M Domestic : $27M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
21. Ant Man & the Wasp: Q: 17 Days / $187M Domestic : $184M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
22. Cocaine Bear: 17 Days / $52M Domestic : $50M Needed (72%D / 28%I) [FINAL]
23. Mummies: 20 Days / $2M Domestic : $2M Needed (8%D / 92%I) [FINAL]
24. Fast X: 23 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (20%D / 80%I) [FINAL]
25: The Bogeyman: 23 Days / $37M Domestic : $36M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
26. The Little Mermaid: 30 Days / $268M Domestic : $265M Needed (53%D / 47%I)
27. Elemental: 38 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (34%D / 66%I)

2023 LIKELY EVENTUAL WINNERS:
1. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 - $522M in total vs $580M needed.
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $94M in total vs $140M needed.

2023 MOVIES LIKELY (OR CERTAINLY IF FINAL) TO NEVER BREAK EVEN:
1. Haunted Mansion - $76M of $316M needed.
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $370M of $600M needed.
3. Renfield - $27M of $172M needed. [FINAL]
4. The Flash - $268M of $400M needed. [FINAL]
5. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $132M of $250M needed. [FINAL]
6. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $42M of $140M needed.
7. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $208M of $300M needed. [FINAL]
8. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - $20M of $110M needed. [FINAL]
9. Operation Fortune - $28M of $100M needed. [FINAL]
10. AIR - $90M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
11. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret - $21M of $60M needed. [FINAL]
12. 65 - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
13. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
14. Book Club: The Second Chapter - $28M of $40M needed. [FINAL]
15. 80 for Brady - $40M of $48M needed. [FINAL]
16. No Hard Feelings - $84M of $90M needed.
17. Plane - $48M of $50M needed. [FINAL]
18. Asteroid City - $48M of $50M needed. (It's still in 63 theaters as of 08/15, but I think it ran out of time)

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023 3:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Monday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,359% (+1%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+0%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 822% (+5%)
6. Talk to Me - 800% (Only as of Sunday... Monday's numbers haven't come in yet).

SoF needs 124% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 414% above Barbie.
SoF is 436% above Talk to Me.

The 1% addition to SMB happened over the weekend. Weird international stuff again, I'm sure.

As I predicted last week, we've now got our first day that SoF didn't get any percentage increase while rounding to the nearest Million. It should go up 7% tomorrow no problem though. We'll probably see another 0% day for SoF on Wednesday.

I've added Talk To Me on this list. The numbers haven't come out for Monday yet, but as of Sunday (its 17th day in the theaters) it was already at 800%, just behind Barbie. And with the $4.5 Million budget that it had, it's probably going to be pulling around 20% per day all week just on the Domestic front. It probably won't end up threatening any of the top 3, but it should pass up Barbie by this weekend.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 3:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Tuesday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,359% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,243% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 826% (+4%)
6. Talk to Me - 800% (Only as of Sunday... No numbers for Monday/Tuesday yet).

SoF needs 117% to beat SMB. (About $17 Million)
SoF needs 233% to beat M3GAN. (About $33 Million)
SoF is 417% above Barbie.
SoF is 443% above Talk to Me. (More like 405% once the numbers for Mon/Tues come in).


I forgot it was cheap seat Tuesday, so SOF pulled in more than I thought it would based off of Monday's numbers. It will still have two days this week without a percentage increase, but instead of Wednesday, it should be Thursday that sees no increase.

Insidious is down to less than $60k on CTS, so I don't expect Domestic numbers to help bring that up again in its life in the theaters. The only thing that is going to bump (or take away from) it's current 1,163% will be reconciliation of International numbers.

Talk to Me still has no new numbers since Sunday. It's probably sitting up around +35% to +40% from 800% though once they finally come in.

The revelation that Barbie actually cost $145 Million made this race a lot less exciting. No amount of international numbers is going to help it become nearly as profitable percentage wise as the top 4 contenders now.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 7:28 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Yesterday still showed $1.191B, and today shows $1.197B Worldwide Box Office for Barbie, which would have been under the $100M budget figure 1191% and 1197%

I have been looking at the Worldwide figures for the last couple days, and have been noticing some things.
Do you know what is the definition of the "Rest of the World" figure?

Did you see that Barbie debuted in UAE on 10 August, and from 10-13 August made $1.9M, averaging almost $10,000 per theater for that period?


Sound of Freedom opens in South Africa this Friday, and new date for Brazil is listed as 21 Sept.


Also,the graph at The Numbers for SoF shows it has been more than double the projected range since 24 Jul - 20 days after it's release.


I was going to mention on 7 Aug that the trend would indicate that SoF would do $2.4M on Sunday, instead of the $2.0 projected. And it did do even more than that, it did $2.487M for that day.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 7:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I didn't feel like taking the time to add any new movies yet for this week.

Movies that are on my radar and their worldwide ranking are as follows:

Asteroid City: 57
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken: 63
80 for Brady: 64
Talk to Me: 66
Renfield: 71
Guy Ritchie's The Covenant: 78


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How you do anything is how you do everything.

I recall that Asteroid City was Limited Release for at least 1 week, possibly more before Wide Release.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 7:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6
12Aug 1.965
13Aug 1.551

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362 7
8 Aug 1.170 6 $ 0393 8
9 Aug 0.900 8 $ 0303 7
10Aug 0.822 7 $ 0276 9
11Aug 1.351

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.

Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.
-----------------
My suspicion for Wednesday was premature.
2 days later, on Friday, Mansion dropped to $724 per theater, and SoF held at 744 per theater.
On Sunday, Mansion had $763 per, and Sof had $836 per.

Bruce pointed out that the entire Box office, for the entire spectrum of movies, was down 11% from expected.

Talk To Me figures finally posted for the past week, about 2 hours ago. So I updated.

Last week, I balked when Angel Studios projected that Sunday would make less than Friday - for the first time in their run. And I will have the same reaction if they do the same this weekend.
Still no SoF for last night.

I had said that SoF would surpass the Domestic BO of Indy5 on Saturday, but it waited until Sunday to do so.

If trends continue, I expect SoF to gain another 50% this week (end 20 Aug), and another 30% the next week (end 27 Aug), making it about 1315%.
Using Oppy as a guide, 1/5 of the International Box Office comes from UK, Australia, Mexico. i expect $18M from these 3, which would make it about 1445% when these are tallied. Australia starts trickling in after 24 Aug, and UK/Mexico after 1 Sep.

I do understand that barbie has a Production Budget of $145M. However, my other table is done to show the numerical trends I had noticed, and I will continue that without changing the denominator, to demonstrate the trend.
If Barbie had continued the trend, I had seen that Barbie would overtake SoF in 2 weeks, and then 2 weeks later would fall below SoF again. That would be IF the summer weekdays continued past 20 Aug, and SoF had no Box office from International.



The weekend predictions had the Box Office falling by 50%, about $105M. But the projections indicate about $111M Box office, so that would be an increase. Bruce had mentioned that he was tinkering with his formulas for weekend predictions, but he thought that would affect Barbie more than others.

Bruce predicted less drop for Barbie than SoF, I thought that was incorrect.
Compared to predictions, the projections for Barbie are higher than those for SoF. I thought that fishy.

Last weekend was $105M predicted, $111M projected, and $115 actual.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 8:22 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Yesterday still showed $1.191B, and today shows $1.197B Worldwide Box Office for Barbie, which would have been under the $100M budget figure 1191% and 1197%

I have been looking at the Worldwide figures for the last couple days, and have been noticing some things.
Do you know what is the definition of the "Rest of the World" figure?



I don't see one anywhere, but I suspect that it is unconfirmed projections from all non-US/Canadian countries beyond the dates given.

Sometimes you see countries listed on there that have a zero balance as if they've never taken in any money at all. But when I've looked into which countries those are on a movie (any movie... not just Barbie) I've found it VERY hard to believe that those countries alone would account for the "rest of world" figure that is stated, so I think maybe he just uses that as a bucket to throw in all projections, even for countries that have already been counted up until a certain day.

I could be wrong, but that's my take on it.

Quote:

Did you see that Barbie debuted in UAE on 10 August, and from 10-13 August made $1.9M, averaging almost $10,000 per theater for that period?


I didn't. Although I did see that it got a late release in Japan just like SMB did. But I suspect that it won't see nearly as large a bump from Japan as SMB did when it also released very late there compared to nearly everywhere else.

Quote:

Sound of Freedom opens in South Africa this Friday, and new date for Brazil is listed as 21 Sept.



Oh. Cool. I do see South Africa and Brazil on The-Numbers now. They weren't on there before.

I saw you mentioned quite a lot of other countries that were going to show it. Do you have a source for that since there's now only 6 listed on the International tab?

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 8:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I didn't feel like taking the time to add any new movies yet for this week.

Movies that are on my radar and their worldwide ranking are as follows:

Asteroid City: 57
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken: 63
80 for Brady: 64
Talk to Me: 66
Renfield: 71
Guy Ritchie's The Covenant: 78


--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

I recall that Asteroid City was Limited Release for at least 1 week, possibly more before Wide Release.



This is correct. It's why I can't find an opening weekend stat for the movie, and even if I could it wouldn't be very useful.

Not sure if you noticed, but I added pretty much every US produced movie that is currently in the Top 80 Worldwide for 2023 now. I didn't add Champions and an Anime flick though because I couldn't even find production budget numbers for either of them anywhere, and without that I can't even put them on any of my lists.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023 8:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I saw you mentioned quite a lot of other countries that were going to show it. Do you have a source for that since there's now only 6 listed on the International tab?
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.




Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If this linky works
newsweek.com/sound-freedom-movie-begins-global-rollout-astonishing-domestic-success-1815650
https://www.newsweek.com/sound-freedom-movie-begins-global-rollout-ast
onishing-domestic-success-1815650


It reports SoF budget was $14.5M - however this is certainly a Fake News site, and perhaps their Maths are prejudiced.

The article also reports International release dates.

18 Aug
South Africa

24 Aug
Australia, New Zealand

31 Aug
Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Belize, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica

1 Sep
UK, Ireland

11 Oct
Spain



Other than Brazil, France, Italy, Germany, China, the biggest markets seem to be covered. Some of those likely need greater translation or dubbing, since most of the cast already spoke Spanish.

This linky also reports that RT has a 99% rating among audience members. Updated as of 31 July.

I can assume that a 100% score would be impossible from a group such as "audience."
But how common is it to have 99% score? I don''t pay enough attention to that system. And I don't have access to "updated" scores, only what the initial release ratings are.

Did you ever answer the comment about 99% here?


For the list of other countries, you need to look at that linky. There is something like a screenshot of something like a tweeter page there, it will not copy with the computers that I use now. But that is were I transcribed the list from. I think it was a page for Angel Studios, or Sound of Freedom, so I was confident they knew what they were talking about.

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 5:01 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
But I have still been noticing trends, and I'll make a table to help show this.
I fully expect most folk will not have interest in this, but I think it is curious. Not only because Sound of Freedom is such a wonderful film, but also because it is breaking the mold, much like Maverick did last year.

Barbie has been benefitting from strong summer weekday sales, which SMB did not have. (SMB is a Seth Rogan film?) SoF has had strong Saturday and Sunday figures, the days when honest working folk are not working.

Over the weekend, Barbie made 53.0% of it's Production Budget. Sound of Freedom made 54.0% of it's Production Budget.

I m using $14M as the Production Budget figure for Sof, and $100M for Barbie. Barbie's international balances may bounce around, but this table is using the stated observation of 47.5% Domestic and 52.5% International.

All figures not tagged with % are Millions of Dollars.
For Barbie figures, the same figures are both $Millions, but also % of Production Budget.
1st column is Date.
2nd column is SoF Single Day BO.
3rd column is Single Day BO % of Budget.
4th and 5th are Total Cummulative Box Office, and then % of Budget.
6th and 7th are Last 7 Days of Box Office, and then % of Budget. All for Sound of Freedom.
8th column is Barbie single Day Domestic Box Office.
9th column is the % of Budget gain on SoF % for the same day.
10th column is the Total of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
11th column is the total of the Last 7 Days of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
12th is the % gain on SoF for the same Last 7 Day period.
13th column - 18th columns are the same things, but for Worldwide Box Office.



0000________Sound of Freedom_______ | _______________Barbie_______________________
000/00000 Domestic Box Office 00000\ / Domestic Box Office 0 Worldwide Box Office \
00000000 1 Day Acuml Total Last L 7D 0000 Gain 00000Lst Gain0000 Gain000000Lst Gain
00001Day %Budg Total %Budg 7Day %Bdg 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF
27J 2.57 18.4% 136.5 0975% 31.9 228% 21.2 +2.8% 258 236 +8% 44.5 26.1% 542 496 268%
28J 3.77 26.9% 140.3 1002% 30.0 214% 29.0 +2.1% 287 239 25% 60.9 34.0% 603 502 288%
29J 4.81 34.4% 145.1 1036% 27.4 196% 34.5 +0.1% 322 204 +8% 72.5 38.1% 676 428 232%
30J 4.23 30.2% 149.3 1066% 24.9 178% 29.4 -0.8% 351 189 11% 61.7 31.5% 737 397 219%
31J 2.00 14.3% 151.3 1081% 23.7 169% 15.0 +0.7% 366 178 +9% 31.5 17.2% 769 374 205%
1 A 2.06 14.7% 153.4 1096% 22.4 160% 15.3 +0.6% 381 167 +7% 32.1 17.4% 800 351 191%
2 A 1.56 11.1% 155.0 1107% 21.0 150% 12.8 +1.7% 394 157 +7% 26.9 15.8% 827 330 180%
3 A 1.44 10.3% 156.4 1117% 19.9 142% 11.8 +1.5% 406 148 +6% 24.8 14.5% 853 311 169% 185
4 A 2.21 15.8% 158.6 1133% 18.3 131% 16.5 +0.7% 423 135 +4% 34.7 18.9% 888 284 153% 218
5 A 2.87 20.5% 161.5 1154% 16.4 117% 19.5 -1.0% 442 120 +3% 40.9 20.4% 928 252 135% 176
6 A 2.48 17.7% 164.0 1171% 14.6 104% 17.0 -0.7% 459 108 +4% 35.7 18.0% 964 227 123% 170
7 A 1.08 07.7% 165.1 1179% 13.7 098% 09.1 +1.4% 468 102 +4% 19.1 11.4% 983 214 116% 160
8 A 1.17 08.4% 166.2 1187% 12.8 091% 09.6 +1.2% 478 096 +5% 20.2 11.8% A04 202 111% 149
9 A 0.90 06.4% 167.1 1194% 12.1 086% 07.4 +1.0% 485 091 +5% 15.5 09.1% A19 191 105% 139
10A 0.82 05.9% 168.0 1200% 11.5 082% 07.1 +1.2% 492 086 +4% 14.9 09.0% A33 181 099% 130
11A 1.35 09.7% 169.3 1209% 10.7 076% 10.0 +0.3% 502 080 +4% 21.0 11.3% A54 168 092% 116
12A 1.96 14.0% 171.3 1224% 09.8 070% 13.2 -0.8% 516 073 +3% 27.7 13.7% A84 153 083% 099
13A 1.55 11.1% 172.8 1235% 08.8 063% 10.6 -0.5% 526 067 +4% 22.3 11.2% B05 141 078% 086
14A 0.59 04.2% 173.4 1238% 08.3 059% 04.8 +0.6% 531 063 +4% 10.1 05.9% B15 132 073% 082
15A 0.73 05.2% 174.1 1244% 07.9 056% 06.1 +0.9% 537 059 +3% 12.8 07.6% B28 124 066% 078
16A 0.56 04.0% 174.7 1237% 07.6 054% 04.5 +0.5% 542 056 +2% 09.5 05.5% B38 118 064% 073
Quote:


July 30 was the first day that Barbie made less Domestic BO % of Budget than SoF did.
Then again on 5 and 6 August.

--------------------
Took me a few days to build this table, but finally got it.

It is currently taking about 7 days for Barbie WWBO to gain 100% on SoF.
Barbie will have Japan release this week.



Barbie has not added International figures in days.
If trends continued, then according to this table, Barbie would not have enough to catch up to SoF in the next week. Barbie currently at 1201% of $100M denominator, and falling to less gains each day. Barbie behind SoF by 47% with these calculations, and currently takes 7 days to gain 64%.

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 6:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This linky also reports that RT has a 99% rating among audience members. Updated as of 31 July.

I can assume that a 100% score would be impossible from a group such as "audience."
But how common is it to have 99% score? I don''t pay enough attention to that system. And I don't have access to "updated" scores, only what the initial release ratings are.

Did you ever answer the comment about 99% here?


No. I know at some point I was able to sort something at RT by audience score back when I was looking at something regarding The Last of Us, but that was a while back and I don't know how I did it or if it's possible anymore.

Finding a list of 100% RT movies by critic is quite easy, but finding the list of highest rated by audience scores seems quite a bit more difficult. I won't give RT any ad revenue either, so they seem to limit my access to about 3 pages per day before they won't let me use the site anymore.

Quote:

For the list of other countries, you need to look at that linky. There is something like a screenshot of something like a tweeter page there, it will not copy with the computers that I use now. But that is were I transcribed the list from. I think it was a page for Angel Studios, or Sound of Freedom, so I was confident they knew what they were talking about.


I see it on your link now.

Quote:

The release scheduled announced by Angel Studios is as follows:

August 18: South Africa
August 24: Australia, New Zealand
August 31: Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Belize, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica
September 1: United Kingdom, Ireland
October 11: Spain

Angel Studios has confirmed that more countries are being added weekly.



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Thursday, August 17, 2023 7:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wednesday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (-1%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,250% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 829% (+3%)
6. Talk to Me - 800% (Only as of Sunday... No numbers after this yet).

SoF needs 109% to beat SMB. (About $16 Million)
SoF needs 226% to beat M3GAN. (About $32 Million)
SoF is 421% above Barbie.
SoF is 450% above Talk to Me. (More like 361% once the numbers for Mon-Thurs come in).

SMB lost another 1% again today. What else is new?

SoF gets its 7% for the day by rounding up. It will not happen again tomorrow, so 1,250% it is until Friday.

Talk to Me still has no new numbers since Sunday. My guess is that from Monday to Thursday night it made enough to round up to $40 Million from $36 Million, which means an 89% gain going into the weekend with around a $400k deficit to the next million. If it falls shy of this though, it will have a surplus with only a 69% gain from Monday to Thursday.

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 10:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Did you ever answer the comment about 99% here?



I did a little more research on this and it looks like I wasn't imagining things. People on Reddit say that you used to be able to rank a list of audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes, but they took that feature out because "audience scores can be manipulated".



There probably isn't a whole lot if any movies rated at 99 or 100%. Cool Hand Luke only gets 95%. Shawshank Redemption gets 98%. Schlinder's List gets 97%. Saving Private Ryan gets 95%. 12 Angry Men (1957) gets 97%. The Wizard of Oz gets 89%. Gone With the Wind gets 92%. The Terminator gets 89%. Terminator 2 gets 95%. Avengers: Endgame gets 90%.

Honestly, I'm quite surprised that Sound of Freedom has a 99% right now. Review Bombing regularly occurs from both sides, and Lefties hate this movie so much I find it almost inconceivable that out of 10,000+ reviews it's sitting at 99%.

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 11:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looks like I still won't be able to retire a lot of movies still stubbornly on the list. Super Mario Bros. is somehow still showing in 68 theaters this week despite only making a few thousand per day now. The Little Mermaid is hanging on with 40 theaters. Miles Morales 2 has 121 theaters.

It looks as though The Flash, Guardians 3 and the Transformers movie aren't making a comeback this week though, so it was probably legit that they were out of theaters last week.


Sound of Freedom drops to 2,100 theaters, while Haunted Mansion still has 2,180. Haunted Mansion is still outpacing SoF on a daily basis, but not by much. It shouldn't be long before it falls beneath SoF on a per-day basis. In any event, it will never make anywhere close to what SoF made Domestically, and with how little business it is doing overseas its chances of ever catching up to SoF would have been just about nil even if SoF wasn't going to start showing internationally. Just one more Disney flick with over 10 times the budget failing hard here.

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Friday, August 18, 2023 5:27 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6
12Aug 1.965 8 $ 0701 9
13Aug 1.551 7 $ 0554 9

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362 7
8 Aug 1.170 6 $ 0393 8
9 Aug 0.900 8 $ 0303 7
10Aug 0.822 7 $ 0276 9
11Aug 1.351 8 $ 0482 9
14Aug 0.590 8 $ 0211 9
15Aug 0.732 9 $ 0261 9
16Aug 0.562 7 $ 0201 8
17Aug

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.

Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.

Talk To Me figures finally posted for the past week, about 2 hours ago. So I updated.

Last week, I balked when Angel Studios projected that Sunday would make less than Friday - for the first time in their run. And I will have the same reaction if they do the same this weekend.
Still no SoF for last night.
--------------------
If trends continue, I expect SoF to gain another 50% this week (end 20 Aug), and another 30% the next week (end 27 Aug), making it about 1315%.
Using Oppy as a guide, 1/5 of the International Box Office comes from UK, Australia, Mexico. i expect $18M from these 3, which would make it about 1445% when these are tallied. Australia starts trickling in after 24 Aug, and UK/Mexico after 1 Sep.

I do understand that barbie has a Production Budget of $145M. However, my other table is done to show the numerical trends I had noticed, and I will continue that without changing the denominator, to demonstrate the trend.
If Barbie had continued the trend, I had seen that Barbie would overtake SoF in 2 weeks, and then 2 weeks later would fall below SoF again. That would be IF the summer weekdays continued past 20 Aug, and SoF had no Box office from International.



The weekend predictions had the Box Office falling by 50%, about $105M. But the projections indicate about $111M Box office, so that would be an increase. Bruce had mentioned that he was tinkering with his formulas for weekend predictions, but he thought that would affect Barbie more than others.

Bruce predicted less drop for Barbie than SoF, I thought that was incorrect.
Compared to predictions, the projections for Barbie are higher than those for SoF. I thought that fishy.


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Friday, August 18, 2023 7:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Thursday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,250% (+0%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 832% (+3%)
6. Talk to Me - 867% (+67% for Monday/Thursday Domestic)

SoF needs 109% to beat SMB. (About $16 Million)
SoF needs 226% to beat M3GAN. (About $32 Million)
SoF is 383% above Talk to Me.
SoF is 418% above Barbie.

Numbers for every relevant movie except for Sound of Freedom are in now. I'm confident stating that SoF didn't go up any percentage points Thursday because it would have needed over $760k to do so and that just isn't happening now.

Quote:

Talk to Me still has no new numbers since Sunday. My guess is that from Monday to Thursday night it made enough to round up to $40 Million from $36 Million, which means an 89% gain going into the weekend with around a $400k deficit to the next million. If it falls shy of this though, it will have a surplus with only a 69% gain from Monday to Thursday.


Talk to Me only got the 69% gain with the Monday through Thursday numbers putting it at $39,378,684, so it got rounded down. It will get a larger boost over the weekend because of this.


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Saturday, August 19, 2023 3:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Friday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,357% (-1%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,257% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 836% (+4%)
6. Talk to Me - 889% (+22%)

SoF needs 101% to beat SMB. (About $14 Million)
SoF needs 219% to beat M3GAN. (About $31 Million)
SoF is 368% above Talk to Me.
SoF is 421% above Barbie.

Super Mario Bros. bounces back down 1% again. What else is new?

SoF goes up 7%, but only with $686k projected on a Friday and a 49% drop from last week. A repeat of that tonight will get it up another percentage boost, but it's not likely to go up on both Saturday and Sunday. We're nearing the end of SoF's meaningful US Box Office run here.

It started in South Africa yesterday, but we might not see numbers on that for a while. It starts in Australia on the 24th and in Mexico on the 31st.

It's going to need to make roughly its production budget overseas to beat Super Mario Bros, and around 2.25 times its production budget overseas to beat Megan... Minus the few extra million it can scrape up here in the states over the next month or so before it puts up truly meaningless numbers here. It could probably still make half of its production budget in the states before its out of theaters if it's lucky.

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 4:13 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


When I started looking at The Numbers about the time SoF came out, I had thought the projections were from Bruce, as well as the predictions. Then I began to conjure that the projections (green figures) were from the studios, before they became black figures. 6ix also confirmed that he thought so too.

That is for Domestic Box Office.

For International, I'm not sure what is going on. I have not seen an actual definition of "Rest of the World" figures, which go up and down, sometimes daily. Some individual nations have their numbers go either up or down.
Are all of these figures coming from the studios? or from their contract distributors in those countries? Or are the studios reporting some of the numbers, and then Bruce makes up numbers in between, to sort of smooth out the bumps, like extrapolation and interpolation?

I have been starting to take note of these figures, only for Barbie, from the past week. Some things I've noticed, but some things remain elusive.

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 4:16 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Thursday figures were not posted last night, until this morning:

Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6
12Aug 1.965 8 $ 0701 9
13Aug 1.551 7 $ 0554 9

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362 7
8 Aug 1.170 6 $ 0393 8
9 Aug 0.900 8 $ 0303 7
10Aug 0.822 7 $ 0276 9
11Aug 1.351 8 $ 0482 9
14Aug 0.590 8 $ 0211 9
15Aug 0.732 9 $ 0261 9
16Aug 0.562 7 $ 0201 8
17Aug 0.438 7 $ 0156 8

Quote:

If trends continue, I expect SoF to gain another 50% this week (end 20 Aug), and another 30% the next week (end 27 Aug), making it about 1315%.
Using Oppy as a guide, 1/5 of the International Box Office comes from UK, Australia, Mexico. i expect $18M from these 3, which would make it about 1445% when these are tallied. Australia starts trickling in after 24 Aug, and UK/Mexico after 1 Sep.

I do understand that Barbie has a Production Budget of $145M. However, my other table is done to show the numerical trends I had noticed, and I will continue that without changing the denominator, to demonstrate the trend.
If Barbie had continued the trend, I had seen that Barbie would overtake SoF in 2 weeks, and then 2 weeks later would fall below SoF again. That would be IF the summer weekdays continued past 20 Aug, and SoF had no Box office from International.


Bruce's predictions for the weekend do not show SoF in the Top Ten.

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 4:27 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
But I have still been noticing trends, and I'll make a table to help show this.
I fully expect most folk will not have interest in this, but I think it is curious. Not only because Sound of Freedom is such a wonderful film, but also because it is breaking the mold, much like Maverick did last year.

Barbie has been benefitting from strong summer weekday sales, which SMB did not have. (SMB is a Seth Rogan film?) SoF has had strong Saturday and Sunday figures, the days when honest working folk are not working.

Over the weekend, Barbie made 53.0% of it's Production Budget. Sound of Freedom made 54.0% of it's Production Budget.

I m using $14M as the Production Budget figure for Sof, and $100M for Barbie. Barbie's international balances may bounce around, but this table is using the stated observation of 47.5% Domestic and 52.5% International.

All figures not tagged with % are Millions of Dollars.
For Barbie figures, the same figures are both $Millions, but also % of Production Budget.
1st column is Date.
2nd column is SoF Single Day BO.
3rd column is Single Day BO % of Budget.
4th and 5th are Total Cummulative Box Office, and then % of Budget.
6th and 7th are Last 7 Days of Box Office, and then % of Budget. All for Sound of Freedom.
8th column is Barbie single Day Domestic Box Office.
9th column is the % of Budget gain on SoF % for the same day.
10th column is the Total of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
11th column is the total of the Last 7 Days of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
12th is the % gain on SoF for the same Last 7 Day period.
13th column - 18th columns are the same things, but for Worldwide Box Office.



0000________Sound of Freedom_______ | _______________Barbie_______________________
000/00000 Domestic Box Office 00000\ / Domestic Box Office 0 Worldwide Box Office \
00000000 1 Day Acuml Total Last L 7D 0000 Gain 00000Lst Gain0000 Gain000000Lst Gain
00001Day %Budg Total %Budg 7Day %Bdg 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF
27J 2.57 18.4% 136.5 0975% 31.9 228% 21.2 +2.8% 258 236 +8% 44.5 26.1% 542 496 268%
28J 3.77 26.9% 140.3 1002% 30.0 214% 29.0 +2.1% 287 239 25% 60.9 34.0% 603 502 288%
29J 4.81 34.4% 145.1 1036% 27.4 196% 34.5 +0.1% 322 204 +8% 72.5 38.1% 676 428 232%
30J 4.23 30.2% 149.3 1066% 24.9 178% 29.4 -0.8% 351 189 11% 61.7 31.5% 737 397 219%
31J 2.00 14.3% 151.3 1081% 23.7 169% 15.0 +0.7% 366 178 +9% 31.5 17.2% 769 374 205%
1 A 2.06 14.7% 153.4 1096% 22.4 160% 15.3 +0.6% 381 167 +7% 32.1 17.4% 800 351 191%
2 A 1.56 11.1% 155.0 1107% 21.0 150% 12.8 +1.7% 394 157 +7% 26.9 15.8% 827 330 180%
3 A 1.44 10.3% 156.4 1117% 19.9 142% 11.8 +1.5% 406 148 +6% 24.8 14.5% 853 311 169% 185
4 A 2.21 15.8% 158.6 1133% 18.3 131% 16.5 +0.7% 423 135 +4% 34.7 18.9% 888 284 153% 218
5 A 2.87 20.5% 161.5 1154% 16.4 117% 19.5 -1.0% 442 120 +3% 40.9 20.4% 928 252 135% 176
6 A 2.48 17.7% 164.0 1171% 14.6 104% 17.0 -0.7% 459 108 +4% 35.7 18.0% 964 227 123% 170
7 A 1.08 07.7% 165.1 1179% 13.7 098% 09.1 +1.4% 468 102 +4% 19.1 11.4% 983 214 116% 160
8 A 1.17 08.4% 166.2 1187% 12.8 091% 09.6 +1.2% 478 096 +5% 20.2 11.8% A04 202 111% 149
9 A 0.90 06.4% 167.1 1194% 12.1 086% 07.4 +1.0% 485 091 +5% 15.5 09.1% A19 191 105% 139
10A 0.82 05.9% 168.0 1200% 11.5 082% 07.1 +1.2% 492 086 +4% 14.9 09.0% A33 181 099% 130
11A 1.35 09.7% 169.3 1209% 10.7 076% 10.0 +0.3% 502 080 +4% 21.0 11.3% A54 168 092% 116
12A 1.96 14.0% 171.3 1224% 09.8 070% 13.2 -0.8% 516 073 +3% 27.7 13.7% A84 153 083% 099
13A 1.55 11.1% 172.8 1235% 08.8 063% 10.6 -0.5% 526 067 +4% 22.3 11.2% B05 141 078% 086
14A 0.59 04.2% 173.4 1238% 08.3 059% 04.8 +0.6% 531 063 +4% 10.1 05.9% B15 132 073% 082
15A 0.73 05.2% 174.1 1244% 07.9 056% 06.1 +0.9% 537 059 +3% 12.8 07.6% B28 124 066% 078
16A 0.56 04.0% 174.7 1248% 07.6 054% 04.5 +0.5% 542 056 +2% 09.5 05.5% B38 118 064% 073
17A 0.44 03.1% 175.1 1251% 07.2 051% 03.8 +0.7% 545 053 +2% 08.1 05.0% B46 111 060% 070
Quote:


July 30 was the first day that Barbie made less Domestic BO % of Budget than SoF did.
Then again on 5 and 6 August.

--------------------
Took me a few days to build this table, but finally got it.

It is currently taking about 7 days for Barbie WWBO to gain 100% on SoF.
Barbie will have Japan release this week.
-------------------
Barbie has not added International figures in days.
If trends continued, then according to this table, Barbie would not have enough to catch up to SoF in the next week. Barbie currently at 1201% of $100M denominator, and falling to less gains each day. Barbie behind SoF by 47% with these calculations, and currently takes 7 days to gain 64%.

In the last couple days, Barbie figures from UK dropped (changed to lesser numbers).

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 8:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
When I started looking at The Numbers about the time SoF came out, I had thought the projections were from Bruce, as well as the predictions. Then I began to conjure that the projections (green figures) were from the studios, before they became black figures. 6ix also confirmed that he thought so too.

That is for Domestic Box Office.



I've heard them referred to by Bruce and others as "Studio Projections", so I believe this is a fact.

Quote:

For International, I'm not sure what is going on. I have not seen an actual definition of "Rest of the World" figures, which go up and down, sometimes daily. Some individual nations have their numbers go either up or down.
Are all of these figures coming from the studios? or from their contract distributors in those countries? Or are the studios reporting some of the numbers, and then Bruce makes up numbers in between, to sort of smooth out the bumps, like extrapolation and interpolation?



Any of that could be true. I don't really know how the international numbers work at all.

My suspicion is that Bruce just works with the information he's provided, however right or wrong it is. He does have a paid for tier that has access to what is supposedly a lot more data than what he provides to everyone. You might get some of your answers if you had that subscription. But given that his site gets mentioned in movie review articles and he charges for some of his data, I don't imagine that he's the one who's knowingly providing false numbers or "guessing". One might argue that is sometimes seemingly left-handed bias that shows could be damaging to his reputation, but I don't think that would be even 1/1000th as damaging to his project as somebody finding out he was faking international numbers would be.

I'd attribute the lack of knowing what's going on internationally to two things:

1. A lot of countries don't have their shit together.

2. Studios love that level of obfuscation. For decades upon decades the people didn't have anywhere near the level of knowledge of their financials at their fingertips like they do today, so they can be scrutinized to a much greater degree now then ever before. I would think the more that remains hidden the happier that would make them.

Quote:

I have been starting to take note of these figures, only for Barbie, from the past week. Some things I've noticed, but some things remain elusive.



If you've looked at my daily posts, Super Mario Bros. is all over the damn place. I don't know if that number changes every day or not since I never bother writing it down, but it's been as high as 1,359% and as low as 1,356% and has bounced up and down quite a bit with none of that being attributed to the several thousand per day it's still earning in the US.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 1:17 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Sunday has fewer theaters than Saturday.

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 4:51 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


On Aug 18, 2023, 3:47 PM, Donald Trump posted about this story at https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110912577276499871

‘Sound of Freedom’ actor applauds Trump: ‘I believe Donald Trump was selected by God Almighty’

“Sound of Freedom” star Jim Caviezel discussed President Donald Trump during an interview on “War Room” this week, where he talked about the smashing success of the independent film that has brought awareness to the horrors of child sex trafficking.

During his interview on “War Room,” Caviezel stated that President Trump “will be at peace and at rest” when he watches the film because “you, more than anyone, have done incredible things.”

Caviezel observed, “…Donald Trump, people talk about how private he is about his faith. Well, he’s getting it done for our Lord and Savior.”

The star also explained that he believed Trump had been selected by God to serve as president of the United States. He said, “I believe Donald Trump was selected by God Almighty, and I’m talking about the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit God. And he listened to the voice, and probably did not think he was the best guy, or maybe he thought he was the best guy. Because in my opinion he’s pretty great.”

President Trump is set to host a special screening of “Sound of Freedom” at the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster next week. He will be joined by Jim Caviezel and Mexican filmmaker and producer of the film, Eduardo Verastegui.

https://www.rsbnetwork.com/news/sound-of-freedom-actor-applauds-trump-
i-believe-donald-trump-was-selected-by-god-almighty
/

At last, I know why 6ixStringJack has been posting about this movie, which could be a two-part episode of Law & Order Special Victims Unit. No one would pay theater prices to see this, other than to show support for Trump. The more money the movie makes, the more support is shown for Trump.
https://www.nbc.com/law-and-order-special-victims-unit

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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