Quote:

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Originally posted by ecgordon:
Four more movies I have no interest in seeing. By the time the first sequel comes out most people will have forgotten about Avatar, if they haven't already.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by whozit:

I hope these don't suck.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by ecgordon:
Four more movies I have no interest in seeing.

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Select to view spoiler:

Quote:

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Originally posted by second:
But what sticks out now is that it looks like something, the product of a fertile visual imagination — James Cameron’s — that thrives on going for broke.

---

Quote:

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Originally posted by ecgordon:
Four more movies I have no interest in seeing.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:
But what sticks out now is that it looks like something, the product of a fertile visual imagination — James Cameron’s — that thrives on going for broke.

---

If broke is what Avatar 2 is going for, mission accomplished.

There will be no more Avatar movies after the second.

Maybe they'll reboot it 20 or 30 years from now after Cameron is dead.


Even if it somehow manages to dethrone Top Gun: Maverick as the largest grossing movie of 2022, it would still have to make another half-Billion dollars just to break even.

This box office failure will kill Cameron's career. A once great career that has been dying for 20 years now.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Even if it somehow manages to dethrone Top Gun: Maverick as the largest grossing movie of 2022 . . .

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Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yeah. I guess there's no accounting for stupid.

Congrats. Enjoy your sequels whenever they came out.

Eventually there was going to be a movie that came out that I was wrong about and you were right about.

But you see, unlike you, I will come back in here and admit I was wrong. I don't just disappear like you do.

This is how adults act, Second.

Thank you James Cameron, for presenting this learning opportunity for Second.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

This box office failure will kill Cameron's career. A once great career that has been dying for 20 years now.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Disney stock hasn't been this low since the middle of 2014, but I'm sure Avatar's disappointing opening weekend had nothing to do with that.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The big question about Lightyear is who is sticking it in who's butt for kids to see.

The second biggest question is has Disney tarnished their brand so badly that they will have their first Toy Story flop.

The third biggest question is will Disney learn from their mistakes when it doesn't meet expectations.

---

Expectations, 6ix? This is NOT Toy Story 5. Disney will be fine. The trailer for Lightyear hints that the scriptwriter saw Planet of the Apes. Buzz Lightyear travels at hyperspeed, left only 4 minutes ago, but returns 62 years, 7 months into the future. Things have changed for the worst, but it is not intelligent apes causing problems. Unlike Charlton Heston, who could not save the planet because he got beat up by gorillas, Chris Evans as Buzz Lightyear is gonna kick James Brolin's giant robot butt.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There are always expectations.

Disney hasn't met them with most of their recent flicks, especially the Marvel trash they've been putting out.

Let's see how badly they want to stop losing money. If they put any Leftist agenda shit in there you can bet that they're going to have their first Toy Story branded loser on their hands.



--------------------------------------------------

Me: "Remember Covid?"

Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There are always expectations.

Disney hasn't met them with most of their recent flicks, especially the Marvel trash they've been putting out.

Let's see how badly they want to stop losing money. If they put any Leftist agenda shit in there you can bet that they're going to have their first Toy Story branded loser on their hands.

---

6ix, you don't have money, which is why Disney doesn't produce entertainment to please you. You are worthless to Disney unless you have money to buy a ticket. That is how free market capitalism has always worked.

Disney’s decision to oppose Florida’s “don’t say gay” law is all about appealing to Disney’s consumers. Republicans who most yearn to make America “great” again — aging, rural, white men — are at the bottom of the consumer totem pole and lack the financial clout to swing the free market. Conservatives just can’t handle the fact that their political ideology is toxic to people who buy tickets for Disney World and Disney movies.

Fox News agitator Laura Ingraham had previously warned that if companies like Disney didn’t “stay in their lane” — focusing on maximizing profit, but shutting up about politics — “everything will be on the table” if Republicans return to power in November, including “your copyright and trademark protection, your special status within certain states, and even your corporate structure itself.” GOP Senator Marsha Blackburn denounced Disney’s criticism as “how the woke left extremists are using corporations to push their agenda.”

Here’s the irony, though: While Disney controls municipal functions in Reedy Creek, its special tax district, it also foots the bill — for the fire department, sewer treatment, and so on. The elimination of that special status thus will save Disney $163 million annually, passing on $1 billion in debt to taxpayers in Orange and Osceola counties and forcing massive local tax hikes. So what in the name of Adam Smith’s invisible hand is going on here?

https://newrepublic.com/article/166186/florida-republicans-revoke-disn
ey-special-tax-status-lost-faith-free-market

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:
6ix, you don't have money, which is why Disney doesn't produce entertainment to please you. You are worthless to Disney unless you have money to buy a ticket. That is how free market capitalism has always worked.

---

I have money. Not to spend on that though.

Why don't you post more links of your pirated Firefly stuff, you piece of shit?

Quote:

---

Disney’s decision to oppose Florida’s “don’t say gay” law is all about appealing to Disney’s consumers.

---

No it's not. It's pissing off the people who used to pay to see Disney.

Look at their stock prices.

Democrats and Leftists are done, buddy. Expect the new Bob to be fired from his position at Disney and a huge change in the corporate structure to occur over the next year. Disney is tired of losing money, pandering to a woke Titter mob that doesn't bring them any cash.

I didn't bother reading the rest of your bullshit, as per usual.

We'll see the box office results of this woke dumpster fire and I'll give you my I Told You Sos then.

You've accumulated quite a collection of them so far, haven't you?



--------------------------------------------------

Me: "Remember Covid?"

Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There are always expectations.

Disney hasn't met them with most of their recent flicks, especially the Marvel trash they've been putting out.

Let's see how badly they want to stop losing money. If they put any Leftist agenda shit in there you can bet that they're going to have their first Toy Story branded loser on their hands.

---

6ix, you don't have money, which is why Disney doesn't produce entertainment to please you. You are worthless to Disney unless you have money to buy a ticket. That is how free market capitalism has always worked.

Disney’s decision to oppose Florida’s “don’t say gay” law is all about appealing to Disney’s consumers. Republicans who most yearn to make America “great” again — aging, rural, white men — are at the bottom of the consumer totem pole and lack the financial clout to swing the free market. Conservatives just can’t handle the fact that their political ideology is toxic to people who buy tickets for Disney World and Disney movies.

---

I love it when time passes...


Lightyear didn't even place 1st in its opening weekend. I guess Disney didn't make it for anybody.

Darn those toxic white males who didn't go to see it!!!!

I guess the market that Disney panders to just torrented it like you did, you pirate.



Lightyear takes 2nd place to the Jurassic world reboot sequel trash movie that's been out for 2 weeks and almost takes third place behind Top Gun: Maverick which has been out for 7 weeks already.

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart



Disney is sitting at over $94 per share right now, which is half of what it was worth back in September of last year.

How do you suppose running another one of its biggest properties into the ground is going to treat shareholders come next week?



--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

---

And we never saw Second in that thread again...




And Lightyear's final total?

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lightyear-(2022)#tab=summary

$218,768,299 worldwide on a $200,000,000 production budget.

It LOST Disney over $200 Million after marketing and theater costs.

How are the DVD/BluRay sales going? They ain't helping none. $2,255,799. Wowie!





What about their super-ultra gay movie Strange World?

$65,567,174 worldwide on a hidden budget.

The budget was $135–180 million, as is estimated online. This one lost Disney $300 Million.



That's half a billion thrown right in the trash for just two woke agenda flicks. Avatar 2 would have to make $2.5 Billion just to make Disney whole after that loss.



FYI, Disney stock is at $88 right now. And that's after a rally.

Plenty of my predictions come true. Especially in the cinema.


And Disney doesn't really even get to call this one a win since it was its FOX subsidiary that was in charge of it. Just like No Way Home... the only Marvel flick in over a year that met expectations.

Every Marvel flick and TV show that came out in 2022 was a disappointment for Disney at best, and an abject failure losing hundreds of millions at worst.

Keep on making things that aren't made for me Disney and see where it gets you.

Quote:

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6ix, you didn’t notice that Disney stock follows the S&P 500, but with far greater volatility. S&P 500 was down 20% for 2022 and so Disney was down by even more. This is how Disney has always been.

---

FALSE

Disney's all-time high was March 12th of 2021 at $197.16. Today it is $88.97.

Disney stock is worth 45.13% of what it was worth on March 12th of 2021.

The S&P was $3943.34 on March 12th of 2021. Today it is at $3824.14.

The S&P is worth 96.98% of what it was worth on March 12th of 2021.




And don't talk to me about promises, shitheel. If you are even half the garbage person in real life that you are online, nobody in your life trusts you or thinks highly of you at all.

And this:

Quote:

---

Cameron will make the movies as written.

---

No. He doesn't. He already removed a 10 minute scene from Avatar 2 before you even saw it because "muh guns".

Yeah. The same guy who made his name with Aliens and Terminator, pulling the ladder up after him after he made his millions.

Fuck James Cameron.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

---

6ix, you didn’t notice that Disney stock follows the S&P 500, but with far greater volatility. S&P 500 was down 20% for 2022 and so Disney was down by even more. This is how Disney has always been.

---

FALSE

Disney's all-time high was March 12th of 2021 at $197.16. Today it is $88.97.

Disney stock is worth 45.13% of what it was worth on March 12th of 2021.

The S&P was $3943.34 on March 12th of 2021. Today it is at $3824.14.

The S&P is worth 96.98% of what it was worth on March 12th of 2021.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

---

6ix, you didn’t notice that Disney stock follows the S&P 500, but with far greater volatility. S&P 500 was down 20% for 2022 and so Disney was down by even more. This is how Disney has always been.

---

FALSE

Disney's all-time high was March 12th of 2021 at $197.16. Today it is $88.97.

Disney stock is worth 45.13% of what it was worth on March 12th of 2021.

The S&P was $3943.34 on March 12th of 2021. Today it is at $3824.14.

The S&P is worth 96.98% of what it was worth on March 12th of 2021.

---

Over the last 5 days the S&P 500 is up 0.17% and Disney is up 6.56%. That is "volatility". Over most time periods (a day, a week, a month, a year) Disney will move in the same direction as the S&P 500 but much more than the market index.

S&P 500 closed today at 3,842.85

Walt Disney Co closed today at $91.97

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?authuser=0&compa
rison=NYSE%3ADIS&window=5D

https://finbox.com/NYSE:DIS/explorer/indexes

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

I win again. And again, and again, and again...

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

I win again. And again, and again, and again...

---

6ix, you are Lucy from the Peanuts comics. A book used Lucy to illustrate a point about rationality: https://www.gocomics.com/peanuts/1955/01/20

Because you don't click links, 6ix, here is the dialog:

Lucy: Look, Charlie Brown! The snow is coming up!

Charlie Brown: It’s not coming up, Lucy. It’s falling down from the sky!

Lucy: Don’t be so stupid! That’s just the wind blowing it around! It’s coming up! It’s coming right up out of the ground!

Lucy: I was right! I was right!

Charlie Brown: I better go home. My stomach is beginning to hurt.

The Peanuts comic illustrated a point in Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters

Download the free book from the mirrors at https://libgen.unblockit.pet/search.php?req=Rationality+What+It+Is+Why
+It+Seems+Scarce+Why+It+Matters

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

This is probably why Avatar 2 succeeded. It's the first movie that the Leftoid woketards cheerleaded and actually paid to see in the theaters.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Well, good luck.

You couldn't get me to watch the free one. I've had 13 or so years to watch the first one for free and that never happened.

Maybe people are so bored of superhero flicks finally that it was actually a genius move to brake conventional wisdom and make the sequel 13 years later long after anybody usually cares.


I wish there were more young James Cameron types in Hollywood today. Not the white male apologist near-billionaire version we've got today, but the hungry perfectionist visionary that brought us the original two Alien and Terminator movies, and movies like The Abyss and Strange Days.

I won't be tuning in to see his Terminator reboot either.




At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how much Avitar 2 makes. The real number is how much it makes above the costs.

Disney/FOX needs to be honest with that number. Why are they still hiding it despite the current recorded revenue?

Could it be, perhaps, that they're still worried that in the end Top Gun Maverick will still have been a much greater investment for those involved than Avatar 2 ultimately ends up being? That would be terrible news for a company that has already lost so much money in 2022 through a long string of bad movie releases and more than half of their market capital drying up in the stock market.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Well, good luck.

You couldn't get me to watch the free one. I've had 13 or so years to watch the first one for free and that never happened.

Maybe people are so bored of superhero flicks finally that it was actually a genius move to brake conventional wisdom and make the sequel 13 years later long after anybody usually cares.


I wish there were more young James Cameron types in Hollywood today. Not the white male apologist near-billionaire version we've got today, but the hungry perfectionist visionary that brought us the original two Alien and Terminator movies, and movies like The Abyss and Strange Days.

I won't be tuning in to see his Terminator reboot either.




At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how much Avitar 2 makes. The real number is how much it makes above the costs.

Disney/FOX needs to be honest with that number. Why are they still hiding it despite the current recorded revenue?

Could it be, perhaps, that they're still worried that in the end Top Gun Maverick will still have been a much greater investment for those involved than Avatar 2 ultimately ends up being? That would be terrible news for a company that has already lost so much money in 2022 through a long string of bad movie releases and more than half of their market capital drying up in the stock market.

---

6ix, you define yourself by your resentments.

And yes, I mean “resentments” rather than “grievances.” Grievances are about things you believe you deserve, and might be diminished if you get some of what you want. Resentment is about feeling that you’re being looked down on, and can only be assuaged by hurting the people you, at some level, envy, such as Hollywood, Disney, James Cameron.

Consider the phrase (and associated sentiment), popular on the right, “owning the libs.” In context, “owning” doesn’t mean defeating progressive policies, say by repealing the Affordable Care Act. It means, instead, humiliating liberals personally — making them look weak and foolish, making their Disney movies (Avatar 2 and plain old Avatar) look like failures.

And does anyone doubt that resentment on the part of those who felt disrespected by Walt Disney and Hollywood was central to the rise of Donald Trump? Are there any pundits left who still believe that it was largely about “economic anxiety”?

I’m not saying that the decline of manufacturing jobs in the heartland was a myth: It really did happen, and it hurt millions of Americans. But the failure of Trump’s trade wars to deliver a manufacturing revival doesn’t seem to have turned off his base. Why?

The likely answer is that Trump’s anti-globalism, his promise to Make America Great Again, had less to do with trade balances and job creation than with a sense that snooty foreigners considered us chumps. (James Cameron is a Canadian. Avatar 2 was filmed in New Zealand. Disney is in California, the state viscerally hated by Trump and his voters.) “The world is laughing at us” was a consistent theme of Trump speeches, and his supporters surely imagined that the same was true of domestic globalist elites.

And I have a theory that Trump’s own underlying ludicrousness, his manifest lack of the intellectual capacity and emotional maturity to be president, was part of what endeared him to his base. You fancy liberals think you’re so smart? Well, we’ll show you, by electing someone you consider a clown!

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:
6ix, you define yourself by your resentments.

And yes, I mean “resentments” rather than “grievances.” Grievances are about things you believe you deserve, and might be diminished if you get some of what you want. Resentment is about feeling that you’re being looked down on, and can only be assuaged by hurting the people you, at some level, envy, such as Hollywood, Disney, James Cameron.

Consider the phrase (and associated sentiment), popular on the right, “owning the libs.” In context, “owning” doesn’t mean defeating progressive policies, say by repealing the Affordable Care Act. It means, instead, humiliating liberals personally — making them look weak and foolish, making their Disney movies (Avatar 2 and plain old Avatar) look like failures.

And does anyone doubt that resentment on the part of those who felt disrespected by Walt Disney and Hollywood was central to the rise of Donald Trump? Are there any pundits left who still believe that it was largely about “economic anxiety”?

I’m not saying that the decline of manufacturing jobs in the heartland was a myth: It really did happen, and it hurt millions of Americans. But the failure of Trump’s trade wars to deliver a manufacturing revival doesn’t seem to have turned off his base. Why?

The likely answer is that Trump’s anti-globalism, his promise to Make America Great Again, had less to do with trade balances and job creation than with a sense that snooty foreigners considered us chumps. (James Cameron is a Canadian. Avatar 2 was filmed in New Zealand. Disney is in California, the state viscerally hated by Trump and his voters.) “The world is laughing at us” was a consistent theme of Trump speeches, and his supporters surely imagined that the same was true of domestic globalist elites.

And I have a theory that Trump’s own underlying ludicrousness, his manifest lack of the intellectual capacity and emotional maturity to be president, was part of what endeared him to his base. You fancy liberals think you’re so smart? Well, we’ll show you, by electing someone you consider a clown!

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

---

Haha! I just read the article that you plagiarized here. Give me a minute. I'll find it.





....


Ah... There it is.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/jan/07/paul-krugman-republica
ns-are-making-the-us-small/

It's written by your boy Krugman too. I knew it wouldn't take long before he'd make an ass out of himself after showing he might have a redemption arc.

Let's see exactly what you stole from Krugman's article for your own here...

(Feel free, everyone, to compare the underlined paragraphs to Second's post above)

Quote:

---

Like many liberals, I'm feeling a fair bit of MAGAfreude: taking some pleasure in the self-destruction of the American right.

There has never been a spectacle like the chaos we've seen in the House of Representatives this week. It had been a century since a speaker wasn't chosen on the first ballot. The last time that happened, there was an actual substantive dispute: Republican progressives (they existed back then) demanded, and eventually received, procedural reforms that they hoped would favor their agenda.

This time, there has been no significant dispute about policy; Kevin McCarthy and his opponents agree on key policy issues like investigating Hunter Biden's laptop and depriving the Internal Revenue Service of the resources it needs to go after wealthy tax cheats. Long after he tried to appease his opponents by surrendering his dignity, the voting went on.

While the spectacle has been amazing and, yes, entertaining, neither I nor many other liberals are experiencing the kind of glee Republicans would be feeling if the parties' roles were reversed.

Liberals want the U.S. government to function, which means that we need a duly constituted House of Representatives, even if it's run by people we don't like. I don't think there are many on the U.S. left (such as it is) who define themselves the way so many on the right do: by their resentments.

Yes, I mean "resentments" rather than "grievances." Grievances are about things you believe you deserve, and might be diminished if you get some of what you want. Resentment is about feeling that you're being looked down on, and can only be assuaged by hurting the people you envy.

Consider the phrase (and associated sentiment), popular on the right, "owning the libs." In context, "owning" doesn't mean defeating progressive policies, such as by repealing the Affordable Care Act. It means, instead, humiliating liberals personally--making them look weak and foolish.

I won't claim that liberals are immune to such sentiments. But liberals have never seemed remotely as interested in humiliating conservatives as conservatives are in humiliating liberals. And a substantial part of what has been going on in the House seems to be that some Republicans who expected to own the libs after a red wave election have acted out their disappointment by owning Kevin McCarthy instead.

Does anyone doubt that resentment on the part of those who felt disrespected was central to the rise of Donald Trump? Are there any pundits left who still believe that it was largely about "economic anxiety"?

I'm not saying that the decline of manufacturing jobs in the heartland was a myth. It really did happen, and hurt millions of Americans. But the failure of Trump's trade wars to deliver a manufacturing revival doesn't seem to have turned off his base. Why?

The likely answer is that Trump's anti-globalism, his promise to Make America Great Again, had less to do with trade balances and job creation than with a sense that snooty foreigners considered us chumps. "The world is laughing at us" was a consistent theme of Trump speeches, and his supporters surely imagined that the same was true of domestic globalist elites.

And I have a theory that Trump's own underlying ludicrousness, his manifest lack of the intellectual capacity and emotional maturity to be president, was part of what endeared him to his base. You fancy liberals think you're so smart? Well, we'll show you, by electing someone you consider a clown!

The irony is that the MAGA movement has succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of sinister globalists (if any exist) in making America the opposite of great. Right now the world really is laughing at us, although it's terrified, too. America is still the essential nation on multiple fronts. When the world's greatest economic and military power seemingly can't even get a functioning government up and running, the risks are global.

Even with a speaker in place, how likely is it that the people we've been watching the past few days will agree to raise the debt ceiling, even if failing to do so creates a huge financial crisis? And there may be many other risks requiring emergency congressional action even before we get to that point.

The world is laughing even harder at Republicans, both the ultraright refuseniks and the spineless careerists like McCarthy who helped empower the crazies. For what shall it profit a man if he shall lose his own soul and still not gain enough votes to become speaker of the House?

I'm not sure what we are in store for, nor is anyone else. One thing is sure, however: America is already less great than it was when Nancy Pelosi ran the House, and it's shrinking by the day.

---

HOLY SHIT, DUDE.

As your Professor in the School of Hard knocks, you get an "F" for plagiarism.


See... I told you I read media from both sides. Maybe you should try it yourself instead of LITERALLY writing exactly what other people write, and apparently program your brain with.


I recommend that you just shut the fuck up and take the BIG FUCKING "L" now.

Before somebody starts doing some digging and finding out just how often you rip off other people's articles and pretend that they're your thoughts.

Oh... wait. They are your thoughts. They're just not Second Originals.



--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Who'd you steal that from?




Trust me dude. This is going to be fun. I'm going to get a lot of enjoyment figuring out where you steal all of your replies from going forward.

You're a fucking loser.




Meanwhile, in reality...

Top Gun: Maverick made $1.15 Billion profit.

Avatar 2 still is in the hole nearly $300 Million.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Who'd you steal that from?




Trust me dude. This is going to be fun. I'm going to get a lot of enjoyment figuring out where you steal all of your replies from going forward.

You're a fucking loser.




Meanwhile, in reality...

Top Gun: Maverick made $1.15 Billion profit.

Avatar 2 still is in the hole nearly $300 Million.

---

You are off by about one billion dollars, 6ix, in your profit calculation. In the U.S., the theaters take 50% of the gross. The rest is divided up with Tom Cruise, Paramount, Skydance, Don Simpson/Jerry Bruckheimer Films, and A Joseph Kosinski Film. How do you figure profit when 50% of the gross is divided so many different ways? There are tax reasons for all these people to claim they did NOT make a profit on this movie, that the other guys made it all. I am certain that the IRS has no idea what the profit truly is when everybody is lying to the IRS.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Theaters make VERY LITTLE off of the movies.

---

Quote:

---

To a certain extent, bad marketing on a good movie means that the theaters will bump the movie, and it can get squeezed out of the marketplace. But exhibitors make a much higher percentage of box office the longer a movie runs. If I remember correctly, the movie theater gives the studio 50% of the opening weekend's take, but eventually the percentage works its way down to as low as 10%. That gives theater owners a huge incentive to support a sleeper. Serenity was out there for at least a month; certainly long enough for word of mouth to reverse any failure to get the cast on Leno, or any weaknesses in the trailer, or what have you.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:
If I remember correctly

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:
If I remember correctly

---

He doesn't remember correctly.

That's good news for Avatar 2, because with how much Avatar 2 cost to make and market, it's going to need a hell of a lot more than 50% to break even or to come close to making what Maverick made after costs.

It's even better news for all of Disney's major flops in 2022 as well.

If Roger remembers correctly, Disney's in a lot worse shape than it would want you to believe.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Avatar 2 has its first sub-$3 Million day on it's 28th day in the theaters domestically.

It took Top Gun: Maverick 42 days to achieve that feat.


Is it going to beat Maverick in the US? It's got a $40 Million head start going into its 5th weekend over Maverick. Let's see what happens this weekend.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

---

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The-Numbers shaved its predictions for Avatar 2 domestically from $770 Million to $765 Million domestically, but I don't think it will even be close to that in the end.

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Maybe The-Numbers knows something that I don't, but that math doesn't add up. Unless Avatar 2 somehow has beyond-spectacular Saturdays and Sundays going forward, it's set to start losing its $40 Million lead starting today, January 21st, 2023... possibly bigly.

Even if it were to maintain that $40 Million lead somehow until it's out of theaters, it would still only end up with $748 Million by the end of its run domestically.

Unless there's something I'm unaware of here, I don't think that Avatar 2 will beat Maverick domestically with its current trajectory.

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While it’s topping the chart again, The Way of Water is continuing to lose steam in domestic markets. It’ll miss our model’s prediction by 28%, and the predicted final total for the domestic market declines from $765 million going into the weekend to $748 million today.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Day 36, Friday - $4,654,000 for Avatar 2; 7,186,162 for Maverick
Day 37, Saturday - $9,322,000 for Avatar 2; $9,767,396 for Maverick
Day 38, Sunday - $5,709,000 for Avatar 2; $8,933,634 for Maverick

That's $19,685,000 for Avatar 2 and $25,887,192 for Maverick on the same Friday/Saturday/Sunday.

Avatar 2's lead over Maverick just lost $6,202,192 on its 6th weekend.

The lead is now down to only $33,598,794 after day 38.

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Maverick pulled in $17,543,554 on the next Monday through Thursday.

My prediction for Avatar on the same Monday through Thursday will be $8.5 Million (and I will call this a GENEROUS prediction, because I REALLY want to call it $6.5 Million, but I don't want egg on my face and it's hard to gauge because of MLK last Monday), and if I'm right, that's another $9 Million deficit going into the 7th weekend, leaving Avatar 2 with only a $24.6 Million lead on Maverick before a 7th weekend where Maverick was just a few million shy of what Avatar 2 made in its 6th weekend.

Maverick had a LOT of longevity at this point in the run. Will Avatar 2?

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yesterday's loss for Avatar 2 wasn't a good example because, as stated before, that Monday was 4th of July for Maverick. But today's projection just came in at $2 Million for Avatar 2, and Maverick pulled in way more than double that figure on Day 40 at $4,461,739 for cheap ticket Tuesday.

They have been projecting low for Avatar 2, so that might end up being as much as $2.2 Million when we get the figure tomorrow. We could probably see as high as $7.5 Million for Avatar from Monday through Thursday, but that would still bring Avatar 2's lead down to $24 Million or just below unless it's got a bigger than expected Wednesday and Thursday.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Projection was extremely close for cheap seat Tuesday. $2,008,398 exact... Not the possible $2.2 Million I thought it might be.

More often than not, movies typically have a weaker Wednesday and Thursday than the do a Monday, and that includes the history of A2. Very good chance that my $6.5 Million prediction I was too reluctant to call will be the reality for the week instead of the $8.5 Million I ultimately called.

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We're looking at a good possibility of Avatar 2 only holding a $22.5 Million lead on Maverick going into the 7th weekend now, and the lead it held over Maverick being divided by half in a 2 week time period

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (Wednesday Evening):
My guess is that they'll drop it to around 3,600 theaters from 3,790 this weekend, and by next weekend it won't be playing in more than 3,200 theaters.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (Monday the 23rd):
Maverick pulled in $17,543,554 on the next Monday through Thursday.

My prediction for Avatar on the same Monday through Thursday will be $8.5 Million (and I will call this a GENEROUS prediction, because I REALLY want to call it $6.5 Million, but I don't want egg on my face and it's hard to gauge because of MLK last Monday), and if I'm right, that's another $9 Million deficit going into the 7th weekend, leaving Avatar 2 with only a $24.6 Million lead on Maverick before a 7th weekend where Maverick was just a few million shy of what Avatar 2 made in its 6th weekend.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
More often than not, movies typically have a weaker Wednesday and Thursday than the do a Monday, and that includes the history of A2. Very good chance that my $6.5 Million prediction I was too reluctant to call will be the reality for the week instead of the $8.5 Million I ultimately called.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (Thursday, Jan 26th):
My math must have been a little fuzzy there. Even with the lower numbers than I expected, A2's lead won't be under $22.5 Million after tonight. But there's almost zero chance that it will be more than $23 Million going into the weekend.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Also, it's a coin-flip whether or not Avatar 2 ends up with a better Weekend 7 than Maverick had. My guess for Avatar 2's 7th weekend is $13.5 Million which would leave it about $1.5 shy of winning the weekend, but no new releases that anybody cares about are set to come out this weekend.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Also, it's a coin-flip whether or not Avatar 2 ends up with a better Weekend 7 than Maverick had. My guess for Avatar 2's 7th weekend is $13.5 Million which would leave it about $1.5 shy of winning the weekend, but no new releases that anybody cares about are set to come out this weekend.

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Are Oscar nominations even a thing that people care about anymore?

The-Numbers seems to think so. They're predicting only an 18% drop in Avatar 2's take in the 7th weekend for $16.6 Million. My prediction would be a 33 % drop.

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