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Originally posted by rue:
"the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget"

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Who is Hari Seldon?

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Originally posted by rue:
What I wonder - if the 'players' use the model to seek an optimum solution *, does that change the dynamics of the model ?

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Originally posted by rue:
And that's where what you do is assume everyone is seeking an optimum.

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But anyway, this is one of those problems where one would think that if there's an obvious solution, it would be implemented. B/c there are so many problems with no solutions, why not solve the things you can ?

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How many here think Bush is angling for a way to bomb Iran --- no matter what ?

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Originally posted by rue:
In this case I think Iran isn't internally motivated to acquire bomb capability. It requires some serious purchasing power or internal investment - for know-how, materials and facilities.

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And after 9/11 people in Iran demonstrated in the streets in support of the US.

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The optimum for them would be - I think - to back off from the rhetoric they've been cornered into making - and the follow-on actions they might have to take.

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Defusing relations is one of those win/ win solutions.

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Jewish CFR President: $200 Oil If War With Iran

Richard Haass the President of the Council on Foreign Relations and Bilderberg luminary was interviewed by disinfobabe Katie Couric on the situation with Iran. A $200 oil price is certainly not out of the realm of possibility considering oil recently eclipsed the $90 a barrel mark. Oil was $30 a barrel before the Bush Gang's 2nd invasion of Iraq.

www.roguegovernment.com/news.php?id=4723

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"If President Bush copied Julius Caesar by ordering his army to empty Iraq of Arabs and repopulate the country with Americans, he would achieve immediate results: popularity with his military; enrichment of America by converting an Arabian Iraq into an American Iraq (therefore turning it from a liability to an asset); and boost American prestiege while terrifying American enemies. He could then follow Caesar's example and use his newfound popularity with the military to wield military power to become the first permanent president of America, and end the civil chaos caused by the continually squabbling Congress and the out-of-control Supreme Court. President Bush can fail in his duty to himself, his country, and his God, by becoming “ex-president” Bush or he can become “President-for-Life” Bush: the conqueror of Iraq, who brings sense to the Congress and sanity to the Supreme Court. Then who would be able to stop Bush from emulating Augustus Caesar and becoming ruler of the world? For only an America united under one ruler has the power to save humanity from the threat of a new Dark Age wrought by terrorists armed with nuclear weapons. When the ancient Roman general Julius Caesar was struggling to conquer ancient Gaul, he not only had to defeat the Gauls, but he also had to defeat his political enemies in Rome who would destroy him the moment his tenure as consul (president) ended. Caesar pacified Gaul by mass slaughter; he then used his successful army to crush all political opposition at home and establish himself as permanent ruler of ancient Rome. The simple truth that modern weapons now mean a nation must practice genocide or commit suicide. Israel provides the perfect example. If the Israelis do not raze Iran, the Iranians will fulfill their boast and wipe Israel off the face of the earth. The wisest course would have been for President Bush to use his nuclear weapons to slaughter Iraqis until they complied with his demands, or until they were all dead."
—Jew Frank Gaffney, Jew Dick Cheney, Jew Richard Perle, Jew Elliott Abrams, CIA Director James Woolsey (Jew?), Family Security Matters Corporation aka Center for Security Policy Corporation (CSP) ak National Security Advisory Council Corporation, President-for-life Bush, August 2007
www.infowars.com/articles/ps/dictatorship_neocons_make_bush_dictator_o
f_the_world.htm

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
They should shoot the Jawas into space.

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Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."

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Originally posted by SignyM:
Mathematical Fortune-Telling
How well can game theory solve business and political disputes?
Julie J. Rehmeyer

Predicting the future is not very hard, according to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: a little mathematics is all you need. Figuring out how to manipulate a situation to achieve specific aims is a bit less straightforward, but Bueno de Mesquita says his mathematical tools can usually do that, too.

The New York University political science professor has developed a computerized game theory model that predicts the future of many business and political negotiations and also figures out ways to influence the outcome. Two independent evaluations, one by academics and one by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, have both shown that about 90 percent of his predictions have been accurate. Most recently, he has used his mathematical tools to offer approaches for handling the growing nuclear crisis with Iran.

Bueno de Mesquita provides the computer tools, but he relies on political or business experts to identify specific issues, their possible outcomes, and the key players.... Bueno de Mesquita finds that he can get experts to agree on what information the model needs as input, even when the experts disagree sharply on expected outcomes. .... "It's basic information that experts agree on and that you can even find in The Economist."

The details of his study of negotiation options with Iran are classified, but Bueno de Mesquita says that the broad outline is that there is nothing the United States can do to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear energy for civilian power generation. The more aggressively the U.S. responds to Iran, he says, the more likely it is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. The upshot of the study, Bueno de Mesquita argues, is that the international community needs to find out if there is a way to monitor civilian nuclear energy projects in Iran thoroughly enough to ensure that Iran is not developing weapons.

(A list of accurate but surprising predicitons can be found here)

... The main reason that the model generates more reliable predictions than experts do is that "the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget," he says. In the analysis of nuclear technology development in Iran, for example, experts identified 80 relevant players. Because no individual can keep track of all the possible interactions between so many players, human analysts focus on five or six key players. The lesser players may not have a lot of power, Buena de Mesquita says, but they tend to be knowledgeable enough to influence how key decision-makers understand the issues. His model can keep track of those influences when a human can't.

www.sciencenews.org/articles/20071027/mathtrek.asp

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Always look upstream.

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