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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
The Mid-Term Elections 2018
Tuesday, October 9, 2018 8:53 PM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Tuesday, October 9, 2018 9:54 PM
1KIKI
Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.
Wednesday, October 10, 2018 7:43 AM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: I think that just like 2016, anyone who's pro-Trump /pro-republican is going to keep mum about their opinions, and be under-counted.
Wednesday, October 10, 2018 8:35 AM
Thursday, October 11, 2018 1:28 PM
Thursday, October 11, 2018 8:23 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Friday, October 12, 2018 7:34 PM
Friday, October 12, 2018 8:05 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Quote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2010 The Democratic Party suffered massive defeats in many national and state level elections, with many seats switching to Republican Party control. Although the President's party usually loses congressional, statewide and local seats in midterm elections, the 2010 midterm election season featured some of the biggest losses since the Great Depression. The Republican Party gained 63 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, recapturing the majority, and making it the largest seat change since 1948 and the largest for any midterm election since the 1938 midterm elections. The Republicans gained six seats in the U.S. Senate, expanding its minority, and also gained 680 seats in state legislative races,[4][5][6] to break the previous majority record of 628 set by Democrats in the post-Watergate elections of 1974.[6] This left Republicans in control of 26 state legislatures, compared to the 15 still controlled by Democrats. After the election, Republicans took control of 29 of the 50 State Governorships.
Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:15 AM
Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:40 AM
SECOND
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Saturday, October 13, 2018 12:30 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Looking at all the polls for the House of Representatives elections: 10% chance Democrats gain more than 56 seats 80% chance Democrats gain 17 to 56 seats. 10% chance Democrats gain fewer than 17 seats. But the chance Republicans keep control is 20.9%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Chance Republicans keep control of the Senate is 81.3%. 10% chance Republicans gain more than 4 seats. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
Saturday, October 13, 2018 2:38 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Saturday, October 13, 2018 3:36 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Polls are tricky things. The respondents have to be selected randomly and without any oversampling, the questions have to be neutral and specific, and people have to answer honestly. In 2016 democrats were oversampled, and people didn't want to come out and say they were voting for Trump. It's hard to say how much of that might be going on now, in 2018. But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost the House. I've posted the link twice already, but it's historically the norm for the party of the president to lose substantial numbers from Congress in off-year elections.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I have seen your link. Shall I infer you have not seen my responses or discussion of them?
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: These pseudo-quasi-arguments in your links are quite ancient.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Each election cycle, Liberals drag them out of the closet, wipe the dust off, and claim they are fresh arguments, while ignoring the past 30 years of historical evidence that these pretense of arguments are flat. Have you not read my posts, or are you just hoping everybody will ignore them?
Saturday, October 13, 2018 11:19 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Monday, October 15, 2018 8:38 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
Monday, October 15, 2018 10:58 PM
Tuesday, October 16, 2018 1:57 AM
Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:30 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP now showing 205D to 199R The gap is closing considerably. I wonder what the October surprise will be. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:37 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196. As of today, changes are: Daily Kos D206 R201 538 D214 R202 So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D214 R202 Cook D208 R196 Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed. 3 weeks to go.
Tuesday, October 16, 2018 8:58 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP now showing 205D to 199R The gap is closing considerably. I wonder what the October surprise will be. Do Right, Be Right. :)RCP used to be what? On what date?
Tuesday, October 16, 2018 11:18 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP now showing 205D to 199R The gap is closing considerably. I wonder what the October surprise will be. Do Right, Be Right. :)RCP used to be what? On what date? 206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Tuesday, October 16, 2018 11:26 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196. As of today, changes are: Daily Kos D206 R201 538 D214 R202 So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D214 R202 Cook D208 R196 Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed. 3 weeks to go.Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.
Wednesday, October 17, 2018 4:11 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP now showing 205D to 199R The gap is closing considerably. I wonder what the October surprise will be. Do Right, Be Right. :)RCP used to be what? On what date? 206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between. Do Right, Be Right. :)Interesting.
Wednesday, October 17, 2018 8:50 PM
Wednesday, October 17, 2018 9:46 PM
REAVERFAN
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I am still thinking SuperMajority, here we come. Thanks Fienstein, Shumer, Floozy-Ford.
Wednesday, October 17, 2018 9:51 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Anybody hear about Florida Governor race? Dems and Soros, Bloomberg are supporting Bernie candidate Gillam. This guy is on 2 Prime topics, putting 100% of people on Medicare, and Impeach Trump. Running for Governor. Medicare currently has 15% participation, with 100% of people contributing, and is scheduled to become insolvent in 2026 - 8 years from now. No need to calculate the Financial Illiteracy required to think shifting to 100% Recipient participation will solve all of the Medicare problems. Just conjure how the Federal Program of Medicare is a viable campaign issue for Governor. Same for Impeach Trump. How stupid do Socialists think Democrat Voters are?
Wednesday, October 17, 2018 9:58 PM
Quote:Originally posted by reaverfan: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Quote:Not even in here.
Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:33 PM
Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:37 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, changes are: Daily Kos D206 R201 538 D214 R202 So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D214 R202 Cook D208 R196 3 weeks to go.
Friday, October 19, 2018 8:48 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, changes are: Daily Kos D206 R201 538 D214 R202 So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D214 R202 Cook D208 R196 3 weeks to go. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50 CNN D206 R201 D45 R49 Optimus D202 R210 Politico D209 R200 D45 R50 538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV) Cook D208 R197 D44 R47 I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking. And I will also add the Senate Predictions above. Those show Tammy Baldwin with a 10 point lead, 52-42. Most of the above pundits have moved WI Gov from Dem win to tossup now.
Saturday, October 20, 2018 1:54 AM
Saturday, October 20, 2018 8:25 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.
Saturday, October 20, 2018 8:30 AM
Saturday, October 20, 2018 8:42 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by reaverfan: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:03 AM
Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:14 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol Russia!!!!!! I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now. What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets. Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:49 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Reregistered as a "Democratic", huh? Not really sure what that means for him in the long run. Donald Trump was a Democratic all of his life until he ran for President. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol Russia!!!!!! I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now. What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets. Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you. Do Right, Be Right. :) I will feel no pain, 6ix. The GOP has a noteworthy chance of increasing its control in the Senate, and to a lesser extent, the House. If the GOP does well in this election, which I hope they don't, they will be giving the wealthy another tax cut. That will be my multi-million dollar consolation prize when the Democrats lose. Too bad you won't get a prize, 6ix, but ha-ha for me!
Saturday, October 20, 2018 10:06 AM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?The poll for 2016 is still there at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ On November 6, 2016, 538 gave Trump a 35% chance of winning. Why FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anyone else: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
Quote:Originally posted: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Saturday, October 20, 2018 10:27 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Enjoy it. Maybe you'll stop bitching for a while and you can go brag to somebody who cares. I don't care about money beyond being able to pay the bills. I'll be enjoying all of my free time while you're obsessing over stupid shit. :) Do Right, Be Right. :)
Saturday, October 20, 2018 11:17 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Thanks for posting. I have no dog in this fight. California is a big blue state and I don't see that changing any time soon. I'm mostly curious how this turns out from a predictive standpoint (who gets it right?), and also from a national political standpoint. Do the democrats win back any power positions? But mostly I've been very busy. I've been training my replacement and re-writing the SOPs before I move into another group. So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.
Saturday, October 20, 2018 3:38 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/ note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, changes are: Daily Kos D206 R201 538 D214 R202 So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D214 R202 Cook D208 R196 3 weeks to go. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50 CNN D206 R201 D45 R49 Optimus D202 R210 Politico D209 R200 D45 R50 538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV) Cook D208 R197 D44 R47 I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking. And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.Cook changed again D208 R196 D44 R48 And 538 D216 R199
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/ note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, changes are: Daily Kos D206 R201 538 D214 R202 So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D214 R202 Cook D208 R196 3 weeks to go. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50 CNN D206 R201 D45 R49 Optimus D202 R210 Politico D209 R200 D45 R50 538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV) Cook D208 R197 D44 R47 I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking. And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/ note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. As of today, changes are: Daily Kos D206 R201 538 D214 R202 So that is Daily Kos D206 R201 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D214 R202 Cook D208 R196 3 weeks to go.
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/ note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Saturday, October 20, 2018 4:15 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup.
Sunday, October 21, 2018 5:56 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. D206 R201 D44 R50 Daily Kos D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN D202 R210 Optimus D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico D216 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups MO, NV) D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Sunday, October 21, 2018 6:33 PM
SIGNYM
I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.
Sunday, October 21, 2018 6:46 PM
Quote:Originally posted by SIGNYM: I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.
Sunday, October 21, 2018 6:55 PM
Sunday, October 21, 2018 9:59 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by SIGNYM: I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out. You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now. And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies?
Monday, October 22, 2018 12:27 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by SIGNYM: I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out. You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now. And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies? I don't think, at least in general, that they're lying. Even to themselves. They just have no idea how to truly make polls at this point, in this political climate. I think during the next 6 years that polls are going to start being a lot more accurate. As more people say "fuck it" and stop worrying about idiots like Reaverfan and T calling them a Nazi and they just speak their minds, they're not going to continue to be secretive about who they support and why. My guess is that similar to 2016, the polling data for 2018 is far under-representative of the support on the right because people still aren't admitting that they're voting against Democrats. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Monday, October 22, 2018 8:26 AM
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