DURANGOKID'S BLOG

DurangoKid

Earth That Was
Thursday, December 13, 2007

We're living the Earth That Was. This is the heyday. Energy is still cheap, resources are somewhat plentiful, most UnitedStatesians have what they need to get by. There are some changes in the wind. It's now known that conventional oil peaked in May 2005. In about three years unconventional oil will do the same. When petroleum production does enter the phase of inevitable decline, what we know as "normal" will cease to exist. We'll all live Mal's hard scrabble existance, but it will all play out on Earth That Will Be. Those inhabitants of the Earth That Will Be will have to live within their means of renewable resources and solar flux. And they will be us. No doubt the "have mores" who have the most will form an Alliance and that alliance will merge with a Blue Sun Corp. We see it in the increasing privatization of government and the commons. Will those unable to discharge their debts end up like the Mudders? Will others form enclaves headed by the likes of Patience or Rance? When the fossil energy goes, we'll be forced to rely on are hands and heads to make a go of it. Not all will adapt. Not all will even find enough to eat. There will be scavangers, smugglers, traders, and others on the edge of the law. We may all get to be a Mal, a Jayne, or a Kaylee for real. I would recommend reading "Peak Everything" by Richard Heinberg. He seems to have the best take on what's to come when non-renewable resources are finally exhausted. The times will surely be interesting.

COMMENTS

Friday, December 14, 2007 8:19 AM

DRGEO


When I was in High School, about 1974, the Club of Rome used a very sophisticated computer model that forecast that Earth would exhaust its resources by the late 1990s. Peak oil is an idea that's been around for 20 years, but still hasn't been demonstrated beyond all doubt. It's been my experience that things were never as good as we thought they were not as bad as were afraid they'll be. There is certainly ample cause to be concerned, but there is no reason to believe that doom is inevitable either. Visions of a grim future have been a staple of science fiction since the genre has existed, and in all that time, none of these visions have really come to pass. I still enjoy the speculation, and the particular take it presents on the human future is one of the reasons I enjoy Firefly/Serenity. But, it's fiction -- just good old fashioned space opera meant to be enjoyed without any pretence that it's really about our future. Chin up! Things are going to be tough, but they always have been. No reason for despair.

Friday, December 14, 2007 7:20 AM

MSB


oooh I think I will start practicing to be Inara... just in case ;)


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