CINEMA

***** Top Gun: Maverick *****

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Sunday, March 19, 2023 09:12
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VIEWED: 3598
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022 10:03 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Gobs of spoilers are possible, I will try to avoid posting any in this thread.

First off, getting a seat. I planned to see the 10:00am show (Tuesday), which is the earliest showtime at this Cinema. Place opens at 9:30, so I parked at 9:15, 2nd car in the lot. I got distracted, entered doors at 9:35 when dozens of cars were in lot. Dozen folks in line for tickets, dozen more at consessions. When I paid there were less than 10 seats left in Stadium Seating, I got the last seat remaining in my row. This was 20 min before showtime. Not sure if my showing was Sold Out. This Cinema has 18 screens, 2 are Ultra Super Duper Deluxe screen, and both were showing Maverick. Plus 4 regular screens. A fresh showing was scheduled about every 1/2 hour from 10 to 10. When my show let out after noon, 3 of the day's upcoming shows were Sold Out, like 6, 6:30, 7:30.


This is the best film I've seen in a while, pretty sure since Free Guy. This might be better than Free Guy, and Edge of Tomorrow - but this is not Sci-Fi, so it's not an even comparison.
I wasn't sure if it would be worthwhile, but I was interested in it.
If you are wondering how Maverick compares to Top Gun, try thinking of it this way: Top Gun was merely the seed, and Maverick is the full bloom.
The whole story is much better than the original, and it doesn't even fully develop until later.
At this point, I'm thinking it is better than any of the Star Wars films (including Rogue One), and also any of the Star Treks - unless maybe the reboot in 2009.

If this is an inkling of how TC is treating the Edge of Tomorrow sequel, I am so jazzed about that.

In the Military genre, Top Gun set some high marks, and about 4 years later Hunt For Red October followed and upped the game. Saving Private Ryan was building the genre, but the story was different. Maverick pushes the genre as much as the original did in it's time, and I can't think of a better effort outside of Sci-Fi.

Many recall that Kelly McGillis was 5 years older than Tom Cruise. But Jennifer Connelly is almost 9 years younger than TC.

You should go see it. In Cinema.

Wisely, one of the ads before the film was Air Force.

I heard report that stock price for AMC went up, attributed to Mavericks Box Office over the weekend.


More later.

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Wednesday, June 1, 2022 1:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I was trying to think of a comparable film experience.
I think that Galaxy Quest is a candidate, but minus the Sci-Fi and the Cheesiness.

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Tuesday, June 7, 2022 9:33 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:
Tom Cruise Makes Libs Cry with "Patriotic Success"


https://www.bitchute.com/video/ozQWECv8ywQ/

Top Gun: Maverick lands yet another box office record as it crosses $500 million

https://www.digitalspy.com/movies/a40199582/top-gun-maverick-box-offic
e-record-500-million/

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Tuesday, June 21, 2022 8:27 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


$10,984 per theater average on Opening Day, 27 May.
$7,745 per theater average on its 3rd day, Sunday 29 May. $36M for the day.

$7,579 per theater average on its 2nd Saturday, 4 June. $36M for the day.

$4,718 per theater average on its 3rd Saturday, 11 June.

$4,389 per theater average on its 4th Sunday, 19 June. (Barely 2nd, just behind dinosaurs @ $4,697, way more than gay robot dog.)


ETA:
$3,052 per theater average on its 5th Saturday, 25 June. (#1 for the day)

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Monday, June 27, 2022 10:06 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It's taken the top spot back.

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Monday, June 27, 2022 11:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It's taken the top spot back.

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Nope...

Looks like The-Numbers were premature with that prediction, but reading their article they said it was too close to call. Surprisingly, Elvis took the top spot for the weekend by about 1.5 Million. I'm actually surprised there's that many living Elvis fans that would go to see a movie in a post Plandemic world. Good news.


Lightyear was still an embarrassment though.

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Friday, July 1, 2022 11:06 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Maverick came in 2nd ($43.25M) in the first 6 days of last week, beating #1 ($44.74M) on 4 of those 6 days. Dinosaurs were 3rd, gay robot dog was 5th with $26M (with more screens than any other film).

As of Wednesday, had earned $534.5 M domestic.

Happy Birthday, Tom Cruise. Nice volleyball game.

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Saturday, July 2, 2022 3:10 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by jewelstaitefan:
Maverick came in 2nd ($43.25M) in the first 6 days of last week, beating #1 ($44.74M) on 4 of those 6 days. Dinosaurs were 3rd, gay robot dog was 5th with $26M (with more screens than any other film).

As of Wednesday, had earned $534.5 M domestic.

Happy Birthday, Tom Cruise. Nice volleyball game.
Update, for Tom's Birthday.
Maverick was 2nd ($47.25M) for last week, beating #1 ($48.32M) on 5 days. The only film in release which never fell below $1,000 per screen average on any day of release.

As of last Night, had earned $545.6 M domestic.
And, last night was #2 behind cartoons (which did not break $10k per screen average).

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Sunday, July 3, 2022 7:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It's looking increasingly less likely by the day that Gay Robot Dog Movie is going to even crack $200 Million domestically. With the lineup of movies set to come out, it might struggle to even make $150 Million.

Three weeks in and it hasn't even cracked $200 Million worldwide. That's because almost nobody else is showing it.

I hope a lot of people got fired over this.

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Monday, July 4, 2022 1:51 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It's looking increasingly less likely by the day that Gay Robot Dog Movie is going to even crack $200 Million domestically. With the lineup of movies set to come out, it might struggle to even make $150 Million.

Three weeks in and it hasn't even cracked $200 Million worldwide. That's because almost nobody else is showing it.

I hope a lot of people got fired over this.

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How could anybody get fired?
The Looney Libtard inmates are running the Asylum. And Walt Gayness World is supporting them.

Logical Cause and Effect does not compute for them. Everything is Disconnect.

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Monday, July 4, 2022 10:07 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by jewelstaitefan:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It's looking increasingly less likely by the day that Gay Robot Dog Movie is going to even crack $200 Million domestically. With the lineup of movies set to come out, it might struggle to even make $150 Million.

Three weeks in and it hasn't even cracked $200 Million worldwide. That's because almost nobody else is showing it.

I hope a lot of people got fired over this.

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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
How could anybody get fired?
The Looney Libtard inmates are running the Asylum. And Walt Gayness World is supporting them.

Logical Cause and Effect does not compute for them. Everything is Disconnect.


I'd say that eventually after losing enough money a company will do something to correct their course.

Apparently, Disney hasn't lost enough yet. They just signed up Bob SayGay for another 3 year contract. In related news, I hear Kathleen Kennedy still has a job too.

I guess there's a lesson they need to learn that we aren't done teaching them. They're not as bright as the folk at Netflix, apparently.

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Tuesday, July 5, 2022 12:40 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd say that eventually after losing enough money a company will do something to correct their course.

Apparently, Disney hasn't lost enough yet. They just signed up Bob SayGay for another 3 year contract. In related news, I hear Kathleen Kennedy still has a job too.

I guess there's a lesson they need to learn that we aren't done teaching them. They're not as bright as the folk at Netflix, apparently.


You'd think that message was coming in loud and clear.

Gay Robot Dog Movie just barely cleared $6.5 million on a holiday weekend with a 6th place showing that was barely half of what the 4th place movie made.

The-Numbers is questioning whether it will even be able to beat The Good Dinosaur, which was Pixar's worst performer at $123 Million domestic. It certainly isn't going to gross more worldwide than The Good Dinosaur did at $333 Million, since it hasn't even cracked $100 Million internationally yet.

It's pathetic that they're still pushing it onto 3,800 theaters. Top Gun made $6,655 per theater this weekend while this steaming pile of shit couldn't even clear $600.

Get woke, go broke, bitches.

Have fun with the new Bob tanking the company for the next 3 years. I'm sure your shareholders are thrilled with that announcement.

Idiots.

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Sunday, July 10, 2022 11:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Gay Robot Dog Movie couldn't even crack $3 Million domestic this weekend and dropped to 7th place in its 4th weekend. This movie is done. At only $112 Million domestic, the chances it beats The Good Dinosaur and saves itself from being the worst US box office for Pixar gets slimmer every day.

Despite the media running defense and pretending that they didn't expect a much better first weekend showing, Thor: Simp and Blunder defies all predictions and falls third place for opening weekend behind Terrible Dinosaur Cash Cow Movie, making this another Marvel turd that isn't getting any word of mouth help from non-Marvel cultists.

Meanwhile, Top Gun: Maverick is still showing a strong 3rd place. I don't see anything in the rest of the summer release schedule that's ringing any bells for me as far as a franchise I've heard of before. I'm wondering how long Top Gun will hold on in the theaters if the rest of the summer is weak.

We already know that Lightyear will be gone well before Top Gun is pulled from theaters. Is it possible that it will also outlast Thor?

It's already pulled in nearly $200 Million more than Dr. Strange (both in the US and worldwide), which is hanging in there at 10th place and a weekend performance of $262,000 in its 10th week. Keep in mind that Dr. Strange is the current record holder for largest opening weekend of 2022, and now it barely has 66% of the total take of Top Gun: Maverick in the US with 3 extra weeks under its belt.

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Thursday, July 14, 2022 3:41 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Top Gun: Maverick just cracked $600 Million domestic yesterday.

It's in first place for the year by $190 Million over Dr. Strange's Wandavision movie, and should easily pull away from here to $200 Million now that the Strange is making less than $20k per day compared to Top Gun's $2.5 Million.

It doesn't look as though Thor is going to do as well as Strange did, so unless the Minion's movie has some massive legs, Top Gun will be the movie to beat.

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Saturday, July 16, 2022 12:49 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I was finally able to see this a 2nd time, 1 1/2 weeks ago, on Tues 5 July. It was not hot out, and I hoped to find a show with seats, and celebrate TC's 60th Birthday.

When I got out of the theater, my phone had a google update forced on it, so it hasn't worked right since - well, since getting it in Jan (forced to) it hasn't worked right, but now even worse. Now it keeps deleting web pages all the time, and I can't really post here with it. I can log in, but I need to type posts blind, it won't let me see what I'm typing.
And the Library Chromebook garbage that I have checked out randomly deletes gobs of text or data when I'm posting or editing posts.


Anyhow, for that week my cinema had bumped back up to 12 or 13 shows per day of Maverick, while Gay Robot Dog was down to 2 per day, I think. This cinemaplex has 18 screens. I went to the Tuesday 1:15pm showing, and the Box Office showed no Sold Out times. There were 4 remaining seats for my show, and I got the last one in Stadium Seating. When I got out around 3:30, 2 of the evening shows were Sold Out.
The next week (last week), Maverick was down to 4 showings per day, while Thor had only 29 shows per day.


I should comment more about the film, also left over from my OP. later.

I heard that clueless Mickey Rourke has been whining that Maverick has over $1B worldwide.

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Saturday, July 16, 2022 8:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Top Gun: Maverick just cracked $600 Million domestic yesterday.

It's in first place for the year by $190 Million over Dr. Strange's Wandavision movie, and should easily pull away from here to $200 Million now that the Strange is making less than $20k per day compared to Top Gun's $2.5 Million.

It doesn't look as though Thor is going to do as well as Strange did, so unless the Minion's movie has some massive legs, Top Gun will be the movie to beat.


Whopping 80% drop for THOR from previous Friday! Nothing close to that has ever happened for any Marvel movie before it.

Unfortunately, it looks like it's still going to be making some money for Disney, but I think it's finally safe to say that stamping MARVEL on a movie isn't the money printing press that it used to be. Good luck getting all your woke reboot characters that nobody cares about off the ground now that you already burned through your A-List catalog and all the actor's contracts have run out.

I didn't even realize it when I'd posted about Maverick being the movie to beat this year, but on July 11th, The Numbers had already predicted this:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252230830-2022-market-prediction-Mave
rick-gives-theatrical-business-a-giant-lift


In other news, Gay Robot Dog Movie can't even crack $400,000 on a Friday and sits in 10th place now. It still needs $9 Million domestic to not be Pixar's biggest flop.

Place your bets.

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Wednesday, July 20, 2022 6:55 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The only reason that Gay Robot Dog Movie remains in 10th place this week is because Disney has still blackmailed 1,350 theaters into showing a movie that nobody wants to see.

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

11th place movie Marcel the Shell with Shoes On took $92,000 yesterday compared to Lightyear's $224,000, but it was only shown in 153 theaters.



I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that Lightyear WILL make the $7 Million domestic it still needs to not be the worst performing Pixar movie ever (domestically), but only because they'll drag this piece of shit to the artificially created finish line they put 2 months out from now, no matter how empty theaters are until they get that number.

Those poor movie theater owners.

No company should have that much power.

It will still be a HUGE loss for Disney, however. As of writing this post, it has only made $13 Million more than its production budget of $200,000,000 worldwide. It would have needed to make half a BILLION to break even after theater costs and the marketing budget. It won't even get half of that.


Meanwhile, Maverick is still pulling in $2 Million + on an ordinary Tuesday afternoon, 54 days into its phenomenal run.

No other movie is going to touch Top Gun in 2022.

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Saturday, July 23, 2022 11:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Gay Robot Dog Movie falls off the top 10 to 12th place this weekend and couldn't even bring in as much money on Friday night as it did Monday night. You don't see that too often.

It's sitting at 116 Million right now, and with barely a $200k haul on a Friday night I'm pulling back my prediction that Disney will make sure this stays in theaters long enough to beat Pixar's formerly worst domestic showing (The Good Dinosaur's $123+ Million).

I don't even see any way to justify this at this point. They just reduced it to 850 movie theaters from 1350, and it's still way more than it should have. At this point I wonder if Pixar is even going to survive after this massive historic flop in this economy.



Gayest Thor Movie Ever (as called by Liberal Media Outlets) didn't even come close to raking in 10% of what it did its first Friday night, and we already see how disappointing the final results were for Wandavision: The Movie compared to stuido and media projections. And Gay Thor already started out quite a bit lower than Dr. Strange did and took a bigger fall in the 2nd weekend too. But even worse for Gay Thor is that the international box office is just a few million more than the US Box office so far. Dr. Strange 2 at least was able to extract the US take plus an additional $113 Million from international audiences. It seems that in most foreign territories outside of Australia and South Korea, the post opening weekend international box office has been pretty pathetic.



Meanwhile, after 57 days, Maverick still nabs 5th place.

I fully expect it to outlast all 4 movies that are currently beating it before falling out of the theaters.


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Sunday, July 24, 2022 4:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Meanwhile, after 57 days, Maverick still nabs 5th place.

I fully expect it to outlast all 4 movies that are currently beating it before falling out of the theaters.


Later yesterday after writing this, the numbers for Saturday came in and Maverick sneaked back into 4th place for the day, but at least right now it looks like Where the Crawdads Sing took 4th place back on Sunday and will barely eek out a win for the weekend. I expect it to lose to Maverick on Monday and every day going forward from here.

With DC's League of Super Pets coming out next weekend, I also expect it to eat into the Minions movie's take and drop it under Maverick as well.

My guess for next weekend's top 5 at the US Box Office:

1. Nope
2. Vengeance
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. DC League of Super Pets
5. Top Gun: Maverick

That's an early guess though, without much to base it on. I haven't actually seen any real reviews for Nope yet, and there really hasn't been much buzz around Vengeance or Super Pets from any source that remains reputable in 2022. The media seems to love Jordan Peele even though he's an overrated hack just like M Knight Shamalyan was. (I do find it humorous when the media keeps calling him the next M Knight as if that were a compliment in current year).

I'm firm on Maverick being 5th place next weekend though, and would not be surprised to see it taking in more than at least two of those other 4 movies two weekends from now. I still think it won't get higher than 5th place after that though given how long its run has been in the theaters. Even though the movies coming out in August don't look like anything special, theaters aren't exactly cheap these days and I think the number of people who wanted to see Maverick on the big screen and still haven't are pretty small and how many times are you going to go see the same movie over and over again?

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Tuesday, July 26, 2022 6:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looks like Nope is getting a thrashing in the reviews, and and anybody who doesn't proclaim to the heavens that it's the bestest movie ever made is a racist.

lol

Jordan Peele is a hack.



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Thursday, July 28, 2022 10:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My guess for next weekend's top 5 at the US Box Office:

1. Nope
2. Vengeance
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. DC League of Super Pets
5. Top Gun: Maverick

That's an early guess though, without much to base it on. I haven't actually seen any real reviews for Nope yet, and there really hasn't been much buzz around Vengeance or Super Pets from any source that remains reputable in 2022. The media seems to love Jordan Peele even though he's an overrated hack just like M Knight Shamalyan was. (I do find it humorous when the media keeps calling him the next M Knight as if that were a compliment in current year).

I'm firm on Maverick being 5th place next weekend though, and would not be surprised to see it taking in more than at least two of those other 4 movies two weekends from now. I still think it won't get higher than 5th place after that though given how long its run has been in the theaters. Even though the movies coming out in August don't look like anything special, theaters aren't exactly cheap these days and I think the number of people who wanted to see Maverick on the big screen and still haven't are pretty small and how many times are you going to go see the same movie over and over again?


Well... I guess before I write a top five I should do a little more research.

1. DC's League of Super Pets is going to be the obvious 1st place this weekend, and I had it at 4th. Not only does it have The Rock and Kevin Heart voice acting, but it's being released is a whopping 4,314 locations in the US. If that's not a post-pandemic record for a debut, it's pretty damn close. Also, in current year, if I haven't heard anything about a likely blockbuster movie until a day before it gets released, that probably means that it's pretty decent and Twitter isn't preemptively calling people Istaphobes if they don't go and see it.

That being said, I'm sure Minions is going to take the biggest hit this week because of this release, and expect DC's LoSP to fall quickly off the charts after 45 days since it will be streaming on HBO Max at that time (If it hadn't already).

2. There's no way that Vengeance is taking 2nd place either. I'm not sure why The-Numbers had it listed as a (WIDE) release since it's not even getting 1,000 theaters in its first weekend.

3. Where the Crawdads Sing has surprised me. After falling behind Maverick on Sunday, it's pulled ahead every single day since. I don't think that there are a whole bunch of feminists that are rushing to the theaters to see it though. It's probably doing so well because there is a dearth of serious adult flicks out right now. I'm still going to say that Maverick will pull in more this weekend than Crawdads though, as it's more likely that the adults going to see this one without the kids in tow are doing it during the middle of the week when the prices are cheaper and everything is quieter. Also, Vengeance will probably be in competition with this one, even though it's a dark comedy.

4. Nope is not getting very good scores from the audience, and what would be considered middling reviews for a Peele movie from the critics. Given the new information about DC's movie above, I have to downgrade this from 1st place, and I expect to see it take a pretty big hit in its 2nd weekend.


New Top Five prediction for the weekend:


1. DC League of Super Pets
2. Nope
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. Minions: Rise of Gru
5. Top Gun: Maverick

I really don't think that Vengeance can even break the top five. Maverick is still going to be shown in 3,008 theaters this weekend and Vengeance only gets 998.

I'm also playing it safe and giving Minions the 4th spot over Maverick even though League of Super Pets will be its direct competition, but I think it will be very close. It took in double what Maverick did just yesterday, it's going to be in more than 500 more theaters than Maverick, and it only went down 40% last weekend from the previous weekend.


Oh. And Gay Robot Dog Movie got 12th place yesterday and barely brought in $100k. It's being cut in half and only shown in 470 theaters this weekend.

I'm calling it official. It WILL be Disney/Pixar's WORST US Box office in history. And the fact that nobody overseas bothered to see it too means that it got crushed internationally. It's current, pathetic $214 Million worldwide barely even covers the production cost and will end up making more than $100 Million less internationally than The Good Dinosaur's $333 Million.

HUGE, HUGE, HUGE loss for Disney here.

I wonder if that's why Disney+ and HULU are not going to be showing any Democratic Party ads that involve Climate Change, Transgender "issues", Abortion or Gun Control.

Are they finally learning their lesson?

We shall see.



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Friday, July 29, 2022 9:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
New Top Five prediction for the weekend:

1. DC League of Super Pets
2. Nope
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. Minions: Rise of Gru
5. Top Gun: Maverick




Well...

Regardless of what happens now, I'm happy with the fact that my revised top 5 perfectly mirrors the top five list The-Numbers put out nearly 24 hours after my prediction.






You guys looking for new talent?

How about putting somebody on staff that loves talking about movies but doesn't actually watch any of them.



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Saturday, July 30, 2022 12:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Friday's take. So far, so good...

1 DC League of Super Pets ... $9,300,000
2 Nope ..................... $5,840,000
3 Thor: Love and Thunder .... $3,751,000
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru .. $3,310,000
5 Top Gun: Maverick ......... $2,400,000

Looks like a 70% drop for Nope from Friday to Friday, making my prediction that it was going to drop like a stone its 2nd week come true.

Feminist's Crawdad flick came close to Maverick though... 5th place will be a tight race this weekend.

6. Where the Crawdads Sing .. $2,335,000


It also looks like Vengeance despite it's sub-1000 theaters is faring better than The-Numbers predicted. They thought it would take 11th place for the weekend, but as of now it's sitting at 8th place in front of Jurassic Turd at 9th, and Paws of Fury which is sitting at 12th.

It's the little movie that could.

9 Vengeance ................... $650,000

Until I hear about some dumb woke bullshit or find out that B.J. Knovak is just another fake Hollywood woke turd like most of the rest of them, I'll root for it.



I think in the case of Paws, The-Numbers neglected to factor in how damaging DC's Super Pets and the Minions movie would be on a weekend where 3 kids movies were trying to hit the top 10 all at once.

In the case of Vengeance, I think it probably ate more into Nope's profits than Crawdad's. The-Numbers had Nope at a -54% drop for the 2nd weekend when so far it's been a -70% drop. (It won't remain that high is my prediction. In the past I've seen other movies that I've been rooting for failure end up with a much nicer weekend drop number post-Friday's numbers. I'll split the difference and predict a 62% drop for Nope for the weekend).


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Saturday, July 30, 2022 8:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Interesting note I just discovered about Maverick.

There have only been 5 movies released all year that did better for their opening weekend than Maverick did on its second weekend. 4 of the 5 were the titles that ranked higher opening weekends than Maverick's opening weekend. The 5th one was the Minions movie.

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Monday, August 1, 2022 9:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Friday's take. So far, so good...

1 DC League of Super Pets ... $9,300,000
2 Nope ..................... $5,840,000
3 Thor: Love and Thunder .... $3,751,000
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru .. $3,310,000
5 Top Gun: Maverick ......... $2,400,000


Weekend Take:

1 DC League of Super Pets ... $23,003,441
2 Nope ...................... $18,588,875
3 Thor: Love and Thunder .... $13,176,531
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru .. $10,963,545
5 Top Gun: Maverick ......... $8,407,590

Quote:
It also looks like Vengeance despite it's sub-1000 theaters is faring better than The-Numbers predicted. They thought it would take 11th place for the weekend, but as of now it's sitting at 8th place in front of Jurassic Turd at 9th, and Paws of Fury which is sitting at 12th.

It's the little movie that could.

9 Vengeance ................... $650,000

Until I hear about some dumb woke bullshit or find out that B.J. Knovak is just another fake Hollywood woke turd like most of the rest of them, I'll root for it.


Vengeance still ended up losing 9th place to Jurassic Turd, but not by much. Made the Top 10.

Quote:
The-Numbers had Nope at a -54% drop for the 2nd weekend when so far it's been a -70% drop. (It won't remain that high is my prediction. In the past I've seen other movies that I've been rooting for failure end up with a much nicer weekend drop number post-Friday's numbers. I'll split the difference and predict a 62% drop for Nope for the weekend).


Final drop for Nope was 58%.


DC Super Pets only pulled in $23 Million and was expected to reach nearly $40 Million. They can't be too happy with those numbers. That means in its first weekend it took in what it would have hoped the best case scenario for a second weekend drop in their first weekend. Probably will end up being a flop with only $23 Million domestic and $41 Million worldwide on a $90 Million production budget.

I still haven't heard anything negative or positive on this one, so unless I hear otherwise I think this is simply a case of DC/WB being punished for all of their previous woke bullshit, and not anything having to do specifically with this movie.

Time to fire some 30-Somethings and get some real talent back in the DC offices.

Quote:
I'm firm on Maverick being 5th place next weekend though, and would not be surprised to see it taking in more than at least two of those other 4 movies two weekends from now. I still think it won't get higher than 5th place after that though given how long its run has been in the theaters. Even though the movies coming out in August don't look like anything special, theaters aren't exactly cheap these days and I think the number of people who wanted to see Maverick on the big screen and still haven't are pretty small and how many times are you going to go see the same movie over and over again?


And The Numbers now expects Top Gun to be in the Top 10 for at least 20 weeks since the Summer season is over and they don't expect another blockbuster hit until the new Halloween movie comes out in October.

If Minions and Thor have the same week to week drop that they've been having along with the same for Maverick, they will both fall below Maverick on the list next weekend. I'm giving a 99% chance of that to Minions and a 70% chance of that for Thor. It would be another week or two or three after that before Nope and Pets falls below Maverick though.

I'm wondering if we might even see it have another weekend higher than 5th place if the new movies before Halloween can't make bank and the existing top four fall too fast for them to make up for it.


Anybody see anything in the release schedule they think will do well between now and October 14th?

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

The only real standout is what looks to be a re-release of Spiderman: No Way Home with different scenes in it called (The More Fun Stuff Version). Hell I might even go and see that one again in September... Assuming that by "More Fun Stuff" they don't bastardize a perfect ending and bring Aunt May back and make everything right in the world for Peter with Doc's Magical McGuffinnnnz. (Seriously, SONY... If that's the plan just scrap this re-release right now).

There's also a re-release of Avitar in mid-September. They may be able to capitalize on some nostalgia there too.

The Brad Pitt release next week might do alright.


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Friday, August 5, 2022 9:09 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'm veering off of The-Number's predictions this week... Slightly.



My predictions for top 10.

1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Nope
4. Thor: Love and Thunder
5. Easter Sunday
6. Minions: Rise of Gru
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. Where the Crawdads Sing
9. Elvis
10. The Black Phone

Nothing is going to come close to Bullet Train this weekend, no matter if it's any good or not. A bit of trivia... It's the widest release of any movie Brad Pitt did in his entire career, which is pretty impressive post-plandemic.

I disagree with the-numbers on Nope taking 2nd place over Super Pets. Nope is being shown in 1,300 less theaters than Super Pets will be, which should easily overcome the hit it will take from Minions still doing as well as it is. Minions is also being shown in 170 more theaters than Nope is this weekend. Out of all of the movies in the top 10 this weekend, Nope would be the one most negatively impacted by Bullet Train as well as the other wide release Easter Sunday, demographically speaking.

I'm going to play it safe and put Thor and Minions above Maverick for one more weekend. I might regret that decision, but they both seem to be just a little too much above Maverick this week for them to fall behind just yet (while it is very possible that Maverick is only behind them during the weekdays now because parents taking their kids to matinees during the week are taking them to the two kid's movies... It's hard to say because they're all so close). While they'll both lose more viewers because of Super Pets this weekend, Maverick is also likely to lose some to Bullet Train. Interestingly enough though, on Thursday the Minions movie actually pulled in more than Thor did for the first time. I think Thor is going to drop like a stone like Dr. Strange 2 did going forward.

Easter Sunday is going to be pretty niche and will probably be forgotten about by September. But considering it is the first weekend and it has 400 more theaters than Maverick, I expect it to make a good deal more for at least its opening weekend.

This will be Maverick's lowest showing so far, but I expect it to outlast most of the movies on that list and gradually take the spots back from them, probably never rising above 5th place again, but only competing with new movies for at least the next month or two, which really don't seem all that impressive after Bullet Train and before the new Halloween movie in mid-October.


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Saturday, August 6, 2022 5:21 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I have seen 1 Sold Out showing of Minions. This is a cinema which practically shares a parking lot with IHOP - where kids eat free during Minions promotion.

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Saturday, August 6, 2022 10:38 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have seen 1 Sold Out showing of Minions. This is a cinema which practically shares a parking lot with IHOP - where kids eat free during Minions promotion.


Wow. That's a huge deal in 2022 economy. Especially for a kids movie that I didn't hear any woke crap about.

How often do restaurants even do free meals for kids anymore? I thought that was a relic of the past. That would be a fun day with the kids without breaking the bank.




Early results for last night are starting to trickle in. Looks like they're putting Thor at 4th place right now and Maverick at 5th place. I don't exactly know what that means when they don't have anything else except for Paws of Fury, Lightyear and Dr. Strange with a combined total last night of $73,000. I think it's time to retire all three of them.

If Maverick actually did get 5th place last night with $1,900,000, that's not indicative of a very good weekend for the theaters. I wonder what fell below it then? Thor has 4th with $2,200,000. No way that Bullet Train didn't run away with 1st place.

Could Nope have fallen to 6th place already? Was Easter Sunday a total flop? Did Super Pets have a disastrous 2nd Friday?



Edited to Add: Nope. It wasn't Nope. Nope's got 2nd place now with $2,520,000.

So what's got 2nd and 3rd, and what fell below 5th last night?




Whatever the results, it probably won't really matter too much in the long run. Friday night box office doesn't seem to predict how the weekend goes at all, which makes sense because the kids are largely out of the equation until Saturday.

It was probably DC's Super Pets and Minions that fell below 5th place for Friday night, which would mean that Easter Sunday took 3rd last night.

We'll see.



Edited to Add 2: I see what happened. Their columns aren't very well denoted. The (5) next to the movies on this list were the place they had last weekend. It must have just been confusing to look at since it was a very partial list I was looking at. Maverick didn't get 5th last night. It will get 7th place once Bullet Train and Super Pets are added to the list, as it is currently sitting at 5th place without them.

It looks like Easter Sunday just barely eeked out the win over Maverick last night but was also extremely close to coming in ahead of Minions.

That's got to be a really hard job for places like The-Numbers to do these sorts of predictions when you've got spreads like this. Without figures for Bullet Train and Super Pets, I'm looking at 5 movies that pulled in about $10.5 Million total but only have $600k difference between first place and last place.



Edited to Add 3: Bullet Train comes in with $12.62 Million. Easy first.

All that's left is to see where Super Pets landed. I'm really going to have a hard time believing The-Numbers that it loses the weekend to Nope. It pulled in $2.24 Million on Thursday night, which would have been enough to beat Thor on Friday night, and is only $280,000 less than Nope made last night. Nope barely cracked $1.5 Million Thursday night as well. Because of the kid factor, I think that even if Super Pets somehow loses to Nope Friday there's still no chance of Nope taking 2nd place for the weekend.

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Saturday, August 6, 2022 11:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yup. Super Pets gets easy 2nd place with $3.35 Million over Nope's $2.52 Million.

Like I said before, Friday night is not indicative of how the entire weekend will go, but here's where we are for Friday.

1. Bullet Train $12,620,000
2. DC League of Super Pets $3,350,000
3. Nope $2,520,000
4. Thor: Love and Thunder $2,200,000
5. Minions: Rise of Gru $2,090,000
6. Easter Sunday $2,030,000
7. Top Gun: Maverick $1,900,000
8. Where the Crawdads Sing $1,665,000
9. Elvis $1,150,000
10. The Black Phone $440,000

So far, I'm right about Nope losing to Super Pets, and because of how kids movies do on weekends compared to weekdays and going into the weekend with a $830k buffer, I'm pretty confident I'll win that one.

I was wrong about Easter Sunday so far though. I had it at 5th place over Minions, but it lost to Minions by $60k on Friday. $60k isn't much, but unless this is a family movie that parents are going to want to take their kids to see (I know nothing about this movie at all except the movie poster and that it's been called a "family movie"), it probably won't take Minions spot. It's still a lot more likely than Nope coming in 2nd for the weekend though, so maybe my prediction will hold after Sunday's numbers come in. And even though it's a family movie, I still believe that this movie is also taking ticket sales away from Nope, even if just in a small amount.

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 12:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It appears it was an interesting Saturday.

1 Bullet Train $9,600,000
2 DC League of Super Pets $4,440,000
3 Nope $3,400,000
4 Thor: Love and Thunder $3,114,000
5 Top Gun: Maverick $2,865,000
6 Minions: The Rise of Gru $2,790,000
7 Where the Crawdads Sing $2,205,000
8 Easter Sunday $1,800,000
9 Elvis $1,550,000
10 The Black Phone $600,000

1. At this point there's no way The-Numbers was right about Nope taking 2nd place, and I was right that Super Pets would beat it.

2. Not only did Easter Sunday fall to 8th place on Saturday, below Crawdads by quite a bit, but Top Gun: Maverick just leapfrogged both ES and Minions to take 5th place back for the day. It looks like Easter Sunday is already out for the count just halfway into its first weekend.

Perhaps my prediction early last week that Maverick would beat Minions this weekend was correct after all?


Totals for both Friday and Saturday this weekend:


1. Bullet Train $22,220,000
2. DC League of Super Pets $7,790,000
3. Nope $5,920,000
4. Thor: Love and Thunder $5,314,000
5. Minions: Rise of Gru $4,880,000
6. Top Gun: Maverick $4,765,000
7. Where the Crawdads Sing $3,870,000
8. Easter Sunday $3,830,000
9. Elvis $2,700,000
10. The Black Phone $1,040,000


1. If Maverick has a Sunday just slightly better than yesterday in relation to Minions, it will take 5th place again this weekend. Even if it doesn't, it will beat Minions next week for sure.

2. Unless people are waiting for Not Easter Sunday to go see Easter Sunday, I got this one really wrong when thinking it would get 4th place and The Numbers fared a little better having it at 6th place. Calling this one a first week loser against Maverick, giving Maverick another chance to stay in the top five even next weekend with Minions and Thor coming dangerously close to slipping behind, and Nope not that far behind them.

I'm thinking when I make my final predictions in the future I shouldn't taint my own gut judgement with The Numbers statistical evaluations. They're good at what they do with data, for sure, but I think if I continue doing this in the future I will put my final prediction up before I look at what theirs is on Friday. It's not exactly an outsider's prediction if I'm also factoring in their statistical judgement. I will look at things like the theater count and news articles for the buzz though.

Here's what my predictions look like with one day left to go.

GOOD 1. Bullet Train
GOOD 2. DC League of Super Pets
GOOD 3. Nope
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
BAD. 5. Easter Sunday
BAD. 6. Minions: Rise of Gru
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone

Here's what The Number's Predictions look like with one day left to go.

GOOD 1. Bullet Train
BAD. 2. Nope
BAD. 3. DC League of Super Pets
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
BAD. 5. Minions: Rise of Gru
BAD. 6. Easter Sunday
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone

If you put aside how wrong their predictions were for Nope and Super Pets, we got the same 4 movies wrong in the same 4 spots. Like I mentioned earlier though, it was really hard to place them because there is such a small amount of money between quite a few of the movies this week. But Easter Sunday ended up being a bad surprise.

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 12:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Next weekend's new WIDE releases as follows:

FALL: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15325794/

PG-13; Survival Thriller

Quote:
Best friends Becky and Hunter find themselves at the top of a 2,000-foot radio tower.


Probably not going to be anything special or anything most people will remember was a thing a month or two later.


Mack and Rita: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14330236/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

PG-13; Comedy

Quote:
A 30-year-old writer (Elizabeth Lail) spends a wild weekend in Palm Springs and wakes up to find she has magically transformed into her 70-year-old self (Diane Keaton).


Hmmmmmm... No comment on this one yet. Is Diane Keaton still a draw in 2022? Honestly, I wasn't even aware she was still alive. No offense. Good for her.


Bodies Bodies Bodies: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8110652/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

R; Comedy/Horror/Thriller

I like A24 for sure, but I hate this genre, so anything I have to say about it would be coming from a place of pretty extreme bias. It's probably not great though, simply because it was already released this weekend in only 6 theaters and is going to be opening wide next weekend (at a time where there were quite a few empty theater screens and they ended up being taken by Bullet Train, giving that movie Brad Pitt's widest opening weekend release ever).

We'll have to see how many theaters "WIDE" means for this movie. I fully expect it to do about as well as Vengeance did, with a spot in the low top 10 temporarily then quickly falling off the chart.


All in all, I don't think any of them will even hit the Top 5 in first weekend, which is just more good news for the longevity of Maverick, and would likely see Maverick bumped up a spot or two.



Early predictions for next weekend... (These will certainly change when we see what the theater counts are going to be)

1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Nope
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies

If Bodies, Bodies, Bodies does well, Easter Sunday, The Black Phone and Elvis will not make the Top 10. If BBB is a stinker, Elvis will take the 10th spot.

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 10:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Full Weekend Projections are in...

1 Bullet Train $30,125,000
2 DC League of Super Pets $11,200,000
3 Nope $8,500,000
4 Thor: Love and Thunder $7,600,000
5 Minions: The Rise of Gru $7,110,000
6 Top Gun: Maverick $7,030,000
7 Where the Crawdads Sing $5,650,000
8 Easter Sunday $5,250,000
9 Elvis $4,000,000
10 The Black Phone $1,460,000



Unless anything changes when the real dollar amounts roll in tomorrow or Tuesday, here's the reults of the predictions.

Mine:

GOOD 1. Bullet Train
GOOD 2. DC League of Super Pets
GOOD 3. Nope
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
BAD. 5. Easter Sunday............(Actual 5th: Minions: Rise of Gru)
BAD. 6. Minions: Rise of Gru.....(Actual 6th: Top Gun: Maverick)
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick........(Actual 7th: Where the Crawdads Sing)
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing..(Actual 8th: Easter Sunday)
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone

The Numbers

GOOD 1. Bullet Train
BAD. 2. Nope.....................(Actual 2nd: DC League of Super Pets)
BAD. 3. DC League of Super Pets..(Actual 3rd: Nope)
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
GOOD 5. Minions: Rise of Gru
BAD. 6. Easter Sunday............(Actual 6th: Top Gun: Maverick)
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick........(Actual 7th: Where the Crawdads Sing)
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing..(Actual 8th: Easter Sunday)
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone

I'd think the only one that even has any possibility of changing would be Maverick and Minions since there's only $80k difference between them. Everything else should be safely out of range of pulling an upset.


With this new info, I'm already changing my predictions for next week. If there's only $900,000 between Nope and Maverick already, I'm bumping Maverick up to 3rd place next weekend.

1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Nope
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies OR Elvis

These might change depending on what I hear about the 3 new releases, but as far as movies already released this weekend, I'm firm on this being the order they place unless some insane theater count changes happen.

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Tuesday, August 9, 2022 2:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
With this new info, I'm already changing my predictions for next week. If there's only $900,000 between Nope and Maverick already, I'm bumping Maverick up to 3rd place next weekend.

1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Nope
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies OR Elvis

These might change depending on what I hear about the 3 new releases, but as far as movies already released this weekend, I'm firm on this being the order they place unless some insane theater count changes happen.


There was actually $1.5 Million difference between Nope and Maverick, not just $900k. I'm still putting Maverick above Nope next week based off of the weekly drops. Even with a conservative estimate, giving +8% favor to Nope and -7% handicap against Maverick, Nope still loses by $1 Million next weekend.

I'll look closer to the weekend, but the only change in the top 5 that I think could be a possibility is Minions actually doing better than Thor.

It's hard to really predict anything about Fall and the Keaton flick. I'm seeing some real negative buzz about Keaton's movie, with insults about it looking out of touch like some 90's movie. The Bodies movie seems to be met with pure derision.

Fall actually has me pretty intrigued after looking deeper into it. I don't know anybody who's in it, but assuming that the two leads are good actresses that can sell it, this might be another "Bottle Movie" like Locke, Phone Booth, Circle and Devil. I actually really like that genre, personally. I don't know how that would translate in the box office though. I'm interested in learning more about it.

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Tuesday, August 9, 2022 9:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There was actually $1.5 Million difference between Nope and Maverick, not just $900k. I'm still putting Maverick above Nope next week based off of the weekly drops. Even with a conservative estimate, giving +8% favor to Nope and -7% handicap against Maverick, Nope still loses by $1 Million next weekend.

I'll look closer to the weekend, but the only change in the top 5 that I think could be a possibility is Minions actually doing better than Thor.


That prediction didn't take long to pan out...

Monday's Box Office top 6:

1 Bullet Train $2,690,972
2 DC League of Super Pets $1,519,703
3 Nope $1,091,145
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru $1,090,450
5 Top Gun: Maverick $1,056,561
6 Thor: Love and Thunder $1,001,197


Thor falls to 6th place from 4th, falling behind both Minions and Maverick, making $50k less than Maverick which took back 5th from 6th.

Minions steals 4th back from it's 5th place weekend showing, netting less than $35k more than Maverick.

Nope holds on to 3rd place by the skin of its teeth, making only $695 (yes, six hundred and ninety-five dollars) more than Minions.


I'm now 100% certain that unless any of the three new flicks being released Friday have a spectacular showing, Top Gun: Maverick is taking back the 3rd place spot. I still don't think Super Pets could ever drop enough next weekend for Maverick to take back 2nd place.



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Wednesday, August 10, 2022 12:28 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I stopped in for a film at a local cineplex, with 18 screens.
did not see any Sold Out shows. Maverick is back up to 6 showings per day, 4 in one screen, and another screen has 2 matinee shows.
Nope had one screen, the smallest in the building. While walking past, it looked like it had less than 30 seats total in it.

Maverick had previously been down to 4 shows per day, and then 5 shows per day. I think both of those weeks I saw Sold Out shows.

Temps are the coolest here in weeks, so not as much hiding in a movie theater happening.

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Wednesday, August 10, 2022 1:06 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I stopped in for a film at a local cineplex, with 18 screens.
did not see any Sold Out shows. Maverick is back up to 6 showings per day, 4 in one screen, and another screen has 2 matinee shows.
Nope had one screen, the smallest in the building. While walking past, it looked like it had less than 30 seats total in it.

Maverick had previously been down to 4 shows per day, and then 5 shows per day. I think both of those weeks I saw Sold Out shows.

Temps are the coolest here in weeks, so not as much hiding in a movie theater happening.


That's interesting. Thanks for the info.

I was actually thinking that overall we might see one of those more rare expansions of older movies adding a few hundred additional theaters nationally. Easter Sunday turned out to be a turd so that's going to lose a lot quickly and your observation about Nope seems to be in line with what I'm seeing. They should both free up some spots for Maverick. I think it's even possible that Minions might even pick up a few more theaters unless one of next weeks movies gets a ton of them.

I expect there to be little to no change for Bullet Train and Super Pets. There really wouldn't be any reason to expect their counts to go down because there isn't any blockbusters coming out next week, and I don't see how they'd go up since they're already at 4,357 and 4,332, respectively.


The cooler weather might make 3 weeks in a row where The-Numbers is way over the actual weekend box office take with their predictions if they don't temper them.



I still haven't really heard anything about the 3 new flicks that I haven't had to go out of my way to find. Info for Fall is almost non-existent, and it happens to be the only one I think I'll actually watch one day unless I find out it's not the "Bottle Movie" genre I think it might be from the little info I've gleaned. I'm looking forward to seeing the theater counts on Thursday.

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Wednesday, August 10, 2022 10:33 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There was actually $1.5 Million difference between Nope and Maverick, not just $900k. I'm still putting Maverick above Nope next week based off of the weekly drops. Even with a conservative estimate, giving +8% favor to Nope and -7% handicap against Maverick, Nope still loses by $1 Million next weekend.

I'll look closer to the weekend, but the only change in the top 5 that I think could be a possibility is Minions actually doing better than Thor.


That prediction didn't take long to pan out...

Monday's Box Office top 6:

1 Bullet Train $2,690,972
2 DC League of Super Pets $1,519,703
3 Nope $1,091,145
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru $1,090,450
5 Top Gun: Maverick $1,056,561
6 Thor: Love and Thunder $1,001,197


Good news for Minions... It just took 3rd from Nope today.

1 Bullet Train Sony Pictures $3,851,738
2 DC League of Super Pets $2,139,435
3 Minions: The Rise of Gru $1,388,785
4 Nope $1,263,300
5 Top Gun: Maverick $1,215,382
6 Thor: Love and Thunder $1,203,009

Tuesday is cheap ticket day though which is good for the kids. The two kids movies almost did as well as Bullet Train did today. I don't expect Minions to stay ahead of Maverick through the weekend. It will probably get 4th or 5th place tomorrow. Still going to say that Super Pets has at least one more weekend above Maverick.

It looks like Thor and Nope are probably done at this point.

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Thursday, August 11, 2022 12:39 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well... Not that I was going to see it in the theater anyway, but I certainly wouldn't now.

https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/10/23299565/fall-2022-movie-fucks-gone
-ai-technology-flawless-f-bomb

Quote:
Fork me: ‘Fall’ movie removed more than 30 F-bombs with deepfake dub technology


I'll wait for the director's cut, although what little there is to read about it otherwise sounds pretty good.

Supposedly, Keaton's movie has been scaled back to a Limited Release, but The Numbers isn't showing that yet. I'll have to see tomorrow what the theater counts are, but that's going to bring it way down on the list.

Variety says that Bodies, Bodies, Bodies is going to do good. They think it will do better than Fall, Nope and Thor, so even if it's a surprise hit I wouldn't expect it to do better than Maverick. Everybody else seems to think it sucks and it only has a 5.9 on IMDB right now.



Edited to Add: I just watched the trailer for Fall. Yeah. I'm going to watch that one. Hopefully the R-Rated cut gets put out after it's out of the theaters.

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Friday, August 12, 2022 7:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

I was actually thinking that overall we might see one of those more rare expansions of older movies adding a few hundred additional theaters nationally. Easter Sunday turned out to be a turd so that's going to lose a lot quickly and your observation about Nope seems to be in line with what I'm seeing. They should both free up some spots for Maverick.


2 out of 3 ain't bad...

1. Maverick adds 421 theaters this weekend to 3,181, making it the 3rd largest theater count.

2. Nope loses 258 theaters for a total of 2,758, making it the 8th largest count.

3. Easter Sunday inexplicably adds 1 whole theater, for the 4th largest count at 3,176. I'm calling some woke bullshit shenanigans there since it's been bouncing between 8th and 9th place all week since Saturday, after opening in 6th place. No other explanation for that. It will continue to do poorly despite the huge theater count and I doubt that it will even make top 10 for the weekend.


New release theater counts:

1. Mack & Rita 1,900
2. Fall - 1,548
3. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies 1,200

Top gun took 3rd place last night by $20k over Nope (4th), which was $81k over Thor (5th), which was $7k over Minions (6th).


These were my predictions for the weekend on the 7th:

Quote:

1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Nope
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies OR Elvis


Without having read the predictions from The Numbers today, this is still the list I'm going with. And Maverick will take back 3rd place.

I don't think that Mack & Rita will do better than Fall, despite the additional 352 theaters. That would probably be where I get it wrong if I do though.


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Friday, August 12, 2022 7:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The numbers be hating on Mack & Rita more than me, and don't even give it a spot in the top 10. We agree on Easter Sunday though, despite it having 4th place in theater counts.

Here's their predictions...

1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. Nope
5. Minions: Rise of Gru
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Where the Crawdads Sing
8. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
9. Elvis
10. Fall

We'll see what happens, but I think TN is way off base this week. They do mention at the bottom of the article that Top Gun: Maverick "could" take 3rd place this weekend though.

They also mention that ET is getting a re-release to 389 IMAX theaters and could pull in $3 Million. I wasn't aware of that until now. That could screw up either of our 8th to 10th place predictions.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252420830-Weekend-predictions-Bullet-
Train-favorite-to-top-slow-weekend

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Saturday, August 13, 2022 7:46 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Cinematographer behind Top Gun: Maverick shares behind the scenes footage, stories from the set, and all the ins and outs of selecting and working with the gear.



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, August 13, 2022 9:53 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


My top 5 should be solid unless Nope takes a shit and falls out of it, at which point I think Minions will join it, and Thor should still be on there.

That's probably as well as I do though. The three smallish new movies were hard to predict with no real background in how these predictions go or insider access that isn't made available to the public until after the release.

Mack and Rita got slammed with 40% All Critics and 53% verified audience on RT.

Fall does much better with 79% All Critics and 83% verified audience.

Bodies, Bodies, Bodies gets 86% All Critics and 81% verified audience.


No numbers are in yet for Friday, but Mack & Rita has no chance of hitting number 7 for the weekend. And as much as I hate the Bodies genre, there is a large amount of youth that hasn't had a SAW or Paranormal Activity movie for a while that are going to flock to those 1,200 theaters... So it will probably come in on top of Fall as well.

I still think Fall will come in above Elvis though, and Elvis is going to be saved from falling off the top 10 because of Mack & Rita doing even more poorly than I thought it would after reading some early preview reviews. The people likely to see that movie would probably more likely go see Crawdads for the first time or re-watch it (or even see Elvis) than see Keaton doing the whole Freaky Friday gimmick. I don't think that a movie like Mack & Rita really even has an audience anymore in the 2020's.

So the bottom five will probably look more like this:

6 Minions: Rise of Gru
7. Where the Crawdads Sing
8. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
9. Fall
10. Elvis

I'm still pulling for Fall to beat Bodies. Just found out that Bodies has some idiot from SNL in it which makes me like it even less than I did already. The only positive it gets from me is that it's an A24 flick, and I've liked anything else they've put out that I've seen.


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Saturday, August 13, 2022 10:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well... So far, my Top 5 was spot on...

Quote:
1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Nope
5. Thor: Love and Thunder


Not only did Maverick come in 3rd place (When The Numbers predicted 7th place), but it looks like it was only $15k shy of Super Pets. It might actually pull a 2nd place finish this weekend. I'm doubtful of that though because more kids will be seeing movies on the weekend. But it's safely above Nope by $390k and Thor by $506k.

Top Gun will pass Super Pets sometime this week and for sure next weekend.



Bottom 5 predicitons... Not so good.


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My top 5 should be solid unless Nope takes a shit and falls out of it, at which point I think Minions will join it, and Thor should still be on there.
...
So the bottom five will probably look more like this:

6 Minions: Rise of Gru
7. Where the Crawdads Sing
8. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
9. Fall
10. Elvis


I was right about Minions so far at 6th, but that's where it ends.

Bodies, Bodies, Bodies took 7th place with the highest per-theater take out of all movies being shown this week.

Crawdads was pushed to 8th because of this.

Fall didn't even make the top 10. :( I don't know what's going on with this one. It doesn't even show up on the projected take list at all, even below number 13 with all of the movies that made so little that they won't even bother giving it a place number until the actual take is verified. Maybe there's still hope? Or maybe nobody saw it?

Elvis somehow took 9th place.

And Easter Sunday looks like it is benefiting from that one extra theater and somehow managed to take 10th place.

We'll see where everything stands for the weekend on Monday. Looks like Maverick is still flying high though.

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Sunday, August 14, 2022 3:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Not only did Maverick come in 3rd place (When The Numbers predicted 7th place), but it looks like it was only $15k shy of Super Pets. It might actually pull a 2nd place finish this weekend. I'm doubtful of that though because more kids will be seeing movies on the weekend. But it's safely above Nope by $390k and Thor by $506k.

Top Gun will pass Super Pets sometime this week and for sure next weekend.


Maverick comes in 3rd on Saturday too, with an estimated $15k less than Super Pets again, for a total of $30k shy of 2nd place so far. Nothing is close enough to take 3rd place though.

Quote:
Fall didn't even make the top 10. :( I don't know what's going on with this one. It doesn't even show up on the projected take list at all, even below number 13 with all of the movies that made so little that they won't even bother giving it a place number until the actual take is verified. Maybe there's still hope? Or maybe nobody saw it?


The numbers for Fall finally came in. It took 9th place on Thursday night, but has been at 11th place Friday and Saturday.

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Monday, August 15, 2022 10:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Top Gun: Maverick gets 2nd place for the weekend!!!!

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

The projections were all wrong, and it ended up beating Super Pets by $48,000.

Thor and Minions now around $2 Million behind Maverick and will never catch up again.


Maverick might just end up being in 2nd place for the foreseeable future too, until October.

How long do you suppose it will be before it's beating Bullet Train? BT took in about 47% more than Maverick this weekend.


Fall ended up snagging the 10th spot, beating out Easter Sunday by $105k too.



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Tuesday, August 16, 2022 4:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


My larger local cinema has 18 screens, and 2 are the super dooper ultra extremist deluxe fancy ones. I think they are the highest capacity as well.
Today one of the 2 had 4 showings of Bullet Train (compared to both of these screens last week)

The other one had 3 showings of Maverick.
Plus another regular screen had a fourth showing.

I don't recall ever before seeing a 3 month old movie returning the the super dooper screens, more than 2 months after leaving them.

Cinema on the other side of town still has 4 showings of Maverick today. It does not have super doopers.

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Tuesday, August 16, 2022 7:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nice. I still have yet to see it. My buddy and I keep talking about it but it hasn't happened yet. Maybe it's back in the big screen around here he was talking about going to before he said it wasn't there anymore.


Just checked the daily take for yesterday and it's still comfortably in 2nd. Beat Super Pets by more yesterday than it did over the entire weekend.

Even more hilarious is that Nope took 4th from Thor. At this rate, there's a very good chance that Thor leaves the theaters with less money than the Minions movie made. It's still $18 Million behind Minions and it only made $2,200 more than Minions yesterday.

More Disney stock crashing for Second to bounce on.




On and Fall is 10th and still beating Easter Sunday by quite a bit.


Oh... and speaking of Gay Robot Dog Movie, it made $57,270 this weekend, and was swimming at the bottom of the list of movies that The-Numbers doesn't even bother giving a place number to. The ET re-release made almost twice that on a Monday.

Did I mention that it was Disney/Pixar's worst performing movie ever?

I guess it truly wasn't made for anybody.

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Saturday, August 20, 2022 11:54 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Maverick lost all of the theaters it gained last week. Not sure why when it's still doing so well. My guess is that once the Dragon Ball movie starts plummeting it will get some of them back. Anime movies usually do really well out of the gates but don't have any longevity to them, and Dragon Ball Z is no Spirited Away.

Dragon Ball takes easy 1st place with $6.4 Million. Beast comes in 2nd with $4.2 Million. Bullet Train takes a big hit and gets third with $2.2 Million and Maverick gets 4th with $1.5 Million.

The-Numbers predicts Maverick gets 5th place this weekend below Super Pets, but they've always underestimated Maverick. My guess is it retains 4th place and by next weekend it will make more than Bullet Train does.

Next week sees the release of "The Invitation" and "Three Thousand Years of Longing". I doubt either of those will do better than the top two from this weekend, so Maverick should easily be in the top 5 again next weekend too.

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Sunday, August 21, 2022 7:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looks like I was right about Maverick's 4th place weekend and The Numbers got it wrong again. With projections, they're saying that Maverick took $75k more than Super Pets. It was going to be a lot more than that, but Super Pets looks to have had a very strong Sunday and took more than half of the Friday/Saturday deficit back from Maverick.

It's way too early to call anything, but I think there could be a chance that Maverick overtakes Bullet Train as well next weekend. BT is down 40% from last weekend while Maverick is only down 17%, most of which could be attributed to the inexplicable reduction in theaters this weekend.

The Numbers had this to say about Maverick this weekend:

Quote:
Pretty much every other movie in the top 10 ended up around where the model predicted. In fact only Top Gun: Maverick will fall more than 10% away from what our model predicted, and (if you haven’t noticed already) it’s something of a special case. In fact, it’s so far outside the normal range for a movie in its 13th week in theaters that it’s warping our model as it goes. That’s something I’ll be looking at, and probably making an adjustment for in the next few weeks.


I think you should. I've been right and you've been wrong about Maverick for a month now. You've got all the models and insider info at your disposal and I'm just some random dude that doesn't even watch movies.

They also said this, which I find both amazing and hilarious at the same time, especially since it's post Plandemic box office numbers we're counting here in 2022:

Quote:
The big news for Maverick this weekend is that it’s now the 6th-highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office, after it overtook Avengers: Infinity War on Friday.


NOTE: This ONLY Domestic numbers. I'd have to look to see worldwide counts were and match them up to this statement.


But this means that Maverick, even with it's much lower opening weekend take than most recent super hero flicks now has beaten every single one of them in the box office except for Avengers: End Game, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Black Panther.

It will beat Black Panther within the next 2 weeks, almost certainly. Taking 5th place overall and only trailing behind the two largest super hero movies ever.

I'm going to guess that unless we see a re-release of Maverick sometime next year (which may VERY well happen), that it won't beat No Way Home since NWH is getting a re-release of its own next weekend with additional scenes. Assuming those scenes don't ruin the movie, I expect the re-release to do better than online outfits are predicting that it will.

But unless that Maverick re-release does happen, I think it's pretty safe to say that it's not going to end up taking in over $858 Million Domestically and beating Avengers: End Game. It's doing great, but that's a long climb from its current $683 Million.

I think it's still got a pretty good chance to snipe 4th place from Avatar though, which took in $760 Million. But to be fair, Avatar made its money back in 2009 when the dollar went quite a bit further than it does today. Also, Avatar is getting a re-release of its own on September 23rd, and although I've never seen it or care to, it would be foolish to think that the re-release isn't going to do well.

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Monday, August 22, 2022 9:09 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
The big news for Maverick this weekend is that it’s now the 6th-highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office, after it overtook Avengers: Infinity War on Friday.


NOTE: This ONLY Domestic numbers. I'd have to look to see worldwide counts were and match them up to this statement.


I didn't have to do much research there. The-Numbers also tracks Worldwide box office. It had only linked their Domestic counts in the article though.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/all-time

Maverick is 12th overall on the Worldwide chart right now.

It should have no problem knocking off Frozen II in a few weeks for 11th.

I think it will have a decent chance to move up two more to bump off The Avengers and Furious 7, but that would depend entirely on how well it is still doing internationally, and The Numbers just puts those figures as a lump sum for each country and doesn't do a weekly breakdown, so it would take a little work from that site to figure out how much it's still doing overseas. It would need to make $112 Million more to take 9th place.

That's probably where it would end though without a re-release. At that point it would still need an additional $140 Million to take 8th place from The Lion King, at which point taking 7th place would be possible with just 18 Million more.


My prediction is that it will be able to take 9th place, which would put it only behind 3 Comic Book Movies on the International list. Avengers: End Game and Infinity War, and Spider-Man: No Way Home.


PLACEHOLDER: $720,000,000 is the current International figure for Maverick as of the morning of 08/22/2022. We'll see where that number is next week.

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