REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Alliance of West & China in real world - US/Chinese union !?

POSTED BY: JAYNEZTOWN
UPDATED: Monday, December 13, 2004 21:43
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Monday, December 13, 2004 6:40 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


So Joss had this crazy idea in his Tv-show/movie. A whole new frontier in the future, spaceships making illegal claims so they have enough food to eat and a crazy totalitarian government which seems to have grown out of the Alliance of USA and China, but is this all science fiction or is an alliance regime possible today ?

Maybe its happening right now

If you can find any examples of an alliance between the PRC and the West post 'em here, no matter how insignificant it may seem, it could be that the Joss story may one day come true.



Here are some examples

Quote:

...



October and November of 04 a Big Reversal on Taiwan

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The GOP and China has before been in a bit of a political conflict, however things took a massive U-turn when President Bush recently reversed his position of standing next to Taiwan...Powell went over to them to rub it in.

Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian has defended his island's sovereignty after U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell made clear that Washington did not consider the self-ruled island an independent state. ...
US Secretary of State Colin Powell emphasized, during his meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao, that the United States will unswervingly pursue the one-China policy and oppose any action aiming at "Taiwan independence".....
Taiwan is still recovering from something approaching a collective heart attack over remarks made by US Secretary of State Powell in Beijing




The falling Dollar and the Rise of other powerful currency such as the Euro and Chinese RMB Yuan,
maybe the future will have a single global currency that covers the East and West ?



Quote:

There is little doubt that the EU has become an economic superpower, the Euro zone has expanded and it has become a really powerful and influential trading bloc. We have seen the growth of the Euro and other nations are staring to join the European Union, The EU remains Australia's largest trading partner, with two-way trade between Australia and the EU totalling $A44.2 billion ...
For the fifth year running, coal was the most important export from Australia to the EU, decreasing slightly by 4.3% to $A2.0bn, and accounting for 13.8% of Australia's total exports to the EU. Australia's second most important export to the EU was non-monetary gold, which although somewhat erratic over the years, increased by 40.6% to $A1.3bn. Alcoholic beverages, principally wine, was the third most important export from Australia to the EU, increasing by 11.6% to $A1.2 billion and accounting for just under half of Australia's total exports of this item.
Australian imports from the EU increased by 10.8% to reach $A29.3 billion, or 23% of total, with the EU being the principal source of imports since 1994-95.... Current EU rules in areas such as banking, insurance and air transport contain reciprocity provisions which can be used in the absence of bilateral access commitments or multilateral obligations, although they have not been invoked. Subject to specific horizontal and sector-specific limitations, the Community has offered under the GATS to bind national treatment for establishment and conditions of operation for all financial services. In air and maritime transport, benefits such as cabotage rights are reserved for companies wholly or majority owned by member States or their nationals.......in May 10 new countries joined the Union, making it the third largest grouping of people in the world after China and India. Will it become a cohesive political force and can its members agree on the draft constitution ?
.... and freaking dollar is still going down! the strength the euro has gained over a few years is undeniable. It has became a powerful and steady currency which seems to be ahead of dollar right now. It wouldn't be too outlandish to imagine what would happen in a couple of years if things go the way they are going right now: daddy bush is screwing up with his war bullcrap, the euro is getting bigger and better and China's acquisition power is growing rapidly. Will any of the above mentioned will be left aside? the poll is running
The Euro and most other currencies are strengthening against the dollar because of George Bush’s disastrous economic policies which have produced unprecedented trade and budgetary deficits; which in turn have devalued the dollar.
Bush talks about America's "strong dollar policy," but really. Weak dollar means more exports, which means increased manufacturing

That a load of Bull, it's a Texan lie used to trick dumb yanks.
they're trying to make the Texan Bush economy look good. weak dollar only helps the major company exporters, they make a little profit because Germans, Canadians can now buy cheap Yanky goods.....

BUT is that what the US Economy is all about?


-America with its Weak dollar has lost millions of Jobs
-With a weak usless dollar ..The cost of security in Afghanistan and re-building Iraq skyrockets
-A lower dollar and American Firms and Companies can no longer expand in Germany the cost of American companies doing research in Canada goes up
-Foreign investors look at America with worry, they open a different bond package, have bank accounts outside the US, they save in more stable markets and look elsewhere to Pounds, Yen or Euro
-The money needed 4 Imports of Steel, Beef, Oil go up and up, ....the US is put under pressure, the economy starts to stumble.... There is no doubt the EU is becoming a powerhouse. This is the first time since the Roman empire that trade could go across the many borders of europe without having to pay repetitive taxes and tarriffs, and it is turning Europe into one of the strongest economies the world has ever seen, in a few decades when all the kinks are worked out, I'm sure Europe will resume its' previously held prestige of being the powerhosue of the world once more...only perhaps second to China.
Europe has become the world's number 1 Economy. People have often complained about the USA's policy and China's industrial output and how they put jobs at risk. But Look at Europe ever since that Euro came out the American economy has been going bad and the US dollar getting worse.Carl Lankowski at the US State Dept says "America looks forward to an enlarged EU" maybe he knows something I don't?
Think about it. Europe is getting bigger and bigger, think about all the financial benefits, the trade deals, the power of a single euro, cheap manufacturing labor from Latvia, it will bring in more wealth and cause both places to growth. There will be well educated scientists and programers Poland, more exports and resources from places slovakia. The one thing about the old soviet Empire is that the economy and banks were dreadful but the inventors, education and scientists were fantastic. This is the problem. As the Europe area expands it might become a threat to the USA's growth, push down the dollar a threaten US jobs. By 2007 Europe will be taking in even more nations.... "In some ways, the 19th-century version of the global capitalist system was more stable than the current one. It had a single currency, gold; today there are three major currencies crashing against each other like continental plates." - George Soros, The Crisis of Global Capitalism

The three currencies Soros was referring to are the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen. And he is right. But the dollar's fate will probably flow one way or another from China.

Now that you understand how deeply the United States is entrenched in deficit, you can understand why the US is pressuring China to "revalue" its currency. The US does not have the political will to do what it takes on the spending side of the equation to improve its financial position.

"For the first time in the post-World War II era, the United States faces a future in which every major category of federal spending is projected to grow at least as fast as, or faster than, the economy for many years to come. That means not just pension and health-care benefits for retiring 'baby boomers', or increasing interest payments as deficits and interest rates rise, but also appropriated or 'discretionary' spending for national defense, for foreign aid, and for domestic homeland-security programs," writes Peterson.

In a country where voters know they can vote themselves the goodies and have accepted the term "war on terror", it's highly unlikely the US can get its fiscal side under control for many years to come. Thus the howls for China to do something with its currency grow louder.

There is one major problem with the Chinese "revaluation" scenario: There are no guarantees that once China allows the dollar-yuan rate to move within a "more flexible band" that its currency will appreciate against the dollar or that it will significantly benefit US manufacturers. Here are four reasons:
First of all, the chances of some type of big-bang revaluation in the dollar-yuan rate are slim to none. Chinese policymakers do not believe the yuan is overvalued. And I believe the most they will do is slightly widen the trading band around the 8.28-yuan-per-dollar rate that now exists.
Second, if China utilizes a trade-weighted approach to calculating its trading band, which is likely, because the US is the largest trading partner, and because said band will move on a trade-weighted value, not China's fundamentals, the index will not fluctuate a great deal against the dollar.
Third, it's not necessarily a differential in exchange rates that will solve the competitive differences between China's exports and the rest of the world. With China's abundant supply of very cheap labor, state-of-the-art manufacturing capabilities and world-class infrastructure, it will take much more than a shift in exchange rates before the goods flow comes into balance.... As the Bush administration plans for its second term, it is faced with an urgent need to finance record deficits as it domestically cuts taxes. Vice President Cheney has publicly stated that deficits don't matter, but many economists don't share that view. Seventy percent of US economic activity is based on consumer spending, and for the past several years, US consumers have been living and spending beyond their means, digging into their savings to cover their spending.

On a national level, the US has depended mainly on the Chinese and Japanese central banks purchases of US treasury bonds to finance its deficit. A revaluation of the yuan upwards would amount to a devaluation of these bonds for the Chinese.
However, the US is limited in how much it can raise interest rates, as that would hurt domestic US activity, and consumer spending in particular. The US will have to use all means at its disposal to get Asian central banks to continue financing its deficit until US productivity and economic activity rises.
There are signs though, that the Asians want to cut their reliance and exposure to the US economy. The euro is now an attractive international reserve currency compared to the US dollar. On the trade policy front, the Asians are continuing to work on free trade agreements (FTAs) within the Asian zone, which will reduce their dependency on the US economy.
Since the Asian economies, with China in particular, are now the engines of world economic growth, a sizable part of the second Bush administration's time will be spent on convincing international institutional investors why they should continue to finance US debt at favorable terms....talks in February 2004 with Mr Li Ruo Gu, the Vice-Governor of the People's Bank of China. The subject over re-valuing the RMB was debated, with strong denials over any possibility of movement from Mr. Li under the current circumstances.
Comments in brief were as follows: "The US has developed the US dollar to being the world's major currency and must take full responsibility for this, in both the benefits and the downsides. Regarding the US economy, we do not take the view that it's problems are not caused or related to the current position of the RMB. We take the view that America 's current problems are caused by a massively increased expenditure coupled with tax cuts, and we feel that this policy is incorrect. We see no reason why China should change it's policy over the position of the RMB to cater for unwise American spending.
Regarding the trade deficit, part of the problem is also caused by American policies – they appear to be happy to buy from us, however unwilling to sell us products. Unless we can have better understanding and trade flow between our two countries it is likely the deficit will remain. China wants to buy US products but in many cases is forbidden from doing so, especially in IT sectors.
The matter over the RMB position is quite simple high school economics








Chinese and the West in Globalistaion


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Of course recently there has been much talk on Globalisation and the other global organisations and trade blocs that are affecting the world, the U.N, Interpol, the ICC, the EU, the IMF, the world Banks, NATO, OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, ITLOS International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea , the UNCTAD UN Conference on Trade and Development ...The Debate on Globalization constinues as people ask hasGlobalization Gone Too Far ?
The Chinese have wanted a strong position with the IMF and WTO, The World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting have been watching events change in the past while.... US needs to do more to reduce its deficits, the main engine driving the dollar to record lows, the head of the International Monetary Fund has said...Global legal trends are also staring to change and the New Interpol Chief Declares War on Guns, a report from Reuters said on October 2004.... Nato must prepare a new call-up reports the Financial Times in October






The growth of the China nation, its space technology and the US worried about new Satellites in space


Quote:

...China is likely to become the world's third largest trading power by the end of 2004, said the Ministry of Commerce.
According to a report jointly published on Friday by the ministry and its think tank, the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Co-operation, China is expected to chalk up a trade volume of US$1.1 trillion for the full year and rank it third in the world.
That will be an increase of more than 30 per cent year on year....

"China's economic growth will remain robust in 2005," she said, believing it will drive up the nation's appetite for raw materials such as steel, iron ore, rubber and cotton.
nd falling tariffs on an array of products and wider opening of its sectors in line with China's commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will also cause an increasing number of foreign goods into China, she added.

Jan-Oct trade

The ministry also released October trade figures on the same day, which showed that the country notched up a trade surplus of US$7.09 billion last month, the largest monthly trade surplus in 2004.
October exports rose 28.5 per cent to US$52.5 billion, while imports increased 29.3 per cent to US$45.4 billion.
Combined the figures from January to October, China has reached a surplus of US$10.97 billion.
The first ten months witnessed a 35.8 per cent rise in the foreign trade to come at US$926.47 billion.
Among it, imports surged 37.2 per cent to US$457.75 billion with exports jumping 34.5 per cent and hitting US$468.72 billion
China is the economic equivalent of sex -- it sells. If you want headlines and investors calling for prospectuses, stick the word "China" in the name of your company or product. It's not unlike the rush to attach ".com" to the end of anything five years ago.
China aims to send a spacecraft to the Moon in three years' time, the head of the country's space agency, Sun Laiyan, has confirmed to the BBC. as well as building their own orbiting space station
... China's 9 percent growth -- should be worry enough for officials. An agreement China signed with Asean to cut tariffs on $100 billion of goods, paving the way toward a free-trade zone in five years covering a third of the world's population, is an even bigger threat.
Recently the Pentagon has released its yearly report to Congress on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including that nation’s active use of space. There are some who desire to fight for a couple of barrels of oil in the middle East and it looks like China is going to stay clear from this fight. It has been written while others fight for the last drops of oil, China will be trying to increase its might and look to other sources of power. China wants to get up to speed while all the other countries aren' t developing their space programs any further and, once the pendulum of space technology development has gained some momentum, it is likely China' s rate of development by that point will have made significant progress. For space, the Washington report underscores Beijing’s advancement of military space capabilities "across the board", including reconnaissance, navigation, communications, meteorology, small satellite technology, and human spaceflight in the future. There are other future plans too, like as part of on-going work in seek-and-hit space warfare -- termed "counterspace" in military parlance, China is expected to continue to enhance its satellite tracking and identification network is what has been written in the US .

There is also the fact that the global economy and other world affairs are starting to change. China had a wicked communist system, some terrible human rights abuses happened and the country was seen as a bad guy. However now in the last ten years China has changed hugely. To compare the system in China today to one 12 years ago , or to a time when China was ruled by the wicked Mao would be to almost compare Germany or Japan of the 40s to that of the system in the 60s. China is changing fast and it's economy is growing rapidly.

The global economy is facing big change and Bush isn't doing much with the American economy, all those jobs lost. The USA space program has also taken a hit since the unfortunate colombia incident, and the finance doesn't look so good however with some effort they should be able to reshape the program and get NASA back on the straight track. World economics have also become an important factor, China has looked to nations like Korea or Japan and seen the wealth these places can get by selling their designs and computer manufacturing abroad, it is very possible that China desires to have a more open and more powerful economy. Lately other nations in Asia have seen their economic problems increase, and Japan looks like it might back some huge cut backs on its space program and close of it's space plans. An unstaedy economy in Asia, or a dying pension system in Japan is what worries other countries, the Japanese look to stay out of the 10 year recession that dragged their economy down and it looks like space will no longer be an investment. China knows that it has the chance now to prove it could become the strongest and leading force in Asia for the next century.


Nations have also been realligned and we see the effects of a world market, the IMF and Globalisation. A key example of this type of idea of change could be the Euro and the EU, the EU is becoming like the US a formation of states bonded together under a common policy, a single set of rules and a currency. The European area has also begun to expand and has jumped from 15 nations up to 25, the euro has become a good strong alternative to the dollar while Europe still has many plans in aerospace designs, manufacturing and space goals with the ESA. The ESA is small now and has made mistakes but it also has made great projects and could also become much stronger in the future like NASA built itslef up, Europe has also created the idea of a European defence force a type of all area army much like NATO. Is this what the future could bring? A number of key superpowers having influence on the world, three different Superpowers like the EU, China, and the US. Is this what it means for China to be fast on track?
...Recently the USA made a threat to shot down Euro's GPS satelites if they were used by China
Chinese Buying IBM
There is now talk that some China's largest maker in Shanghai, Beijing and HongKong are starting to buy into or purchase European/American companies, in business trade there is much info that Beijing is poised to buy IBM's personal computer manufacturing business and set up production in the Middle Kingdom. Some have said it is negotiating a possible deal to buy IBM's PC-making business for up to $2bn. New York Times said an IBM sale would be likely to include all of its desktop and laptop computers business, Chinese PC market is expected to grow about 20% this year and it is laready the world's second largest PC market.
However there is planety of other Market and economic movement the China company TCL International Holdings bought the television arm of France's Thomson to create the world's largest TV manufacturer which could be set to dominate the future. Chinese companies and the China government are watching to see how S.Korea and Japan copied many Western ideas in the 60s such as their production of radios, their copy of American/European automotive sectors and the TV business, the Chinese expect that they can repeat the economic growth of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Japan but not make the same mistakes. The Chinese have already come out of the Asian economic crisis without a scratch, and production is set to rise inside the country, the Chinese also have a huge labour force and China is a market of over 1.3 billion people, there is also info that Shanghai Auto is buying 48.9 percent of South Korea's Motor Company and the Chinese are in talks with Britain's MG Rover towards setting up a venture....Look at how Chinese industrial production and political reform is going, the days where the words communist dictatorship were used to describe the nation have passed. The Chinese economy has been growing at a rate of about 9 percent per year since the beginning of 1980, is what is said by many Western economists. It is also a market of 1.3 billion people , this also means they have a huge labour force and can produce stuff quicly and cheaply. They have also said they are more open in their space quest and are will to work openly with the Western nations. More recently China has been working closely with the ESA's study of Earth's magnetosphere, going with Europeans Cluster / Double-Star mission.

Recently China has also been updating its missiles and other military designs. China has launched the first submarine in a new class of nuclear subs designed to fire intercontinental ballistic missiles. It was widely known China was building the new class of nuclear-missile submarine, called the Type 094 but the launch is far ahead of what U.S. intelligence expected. China recently deployed a new torpedo that can break the sound barrier underwater using a pricipal called supercavitation. The US and NATO torpedos max out well under 100 knots. China is working on a cruise missile version of that torpedo that can be launched far off the coast of the US, come screaming in at over Mach 1, and then 'pop up' out of the water at the last second and strike. The United states the Pentagon said China's cache of ICBMs could increase to 30 by next year, the Chinese already have quiet a few Nuclear missiles so with the French and their atomic bomb testing and Russia doing new weapons the Chinese now have an excuse to update their systems. Some missiles and nuclear warheads the Chinese have already worked on are the, its been looking at MIRVs, ICBMs and studying the ability of Neutron bombs it maybe will change. China plans to triple its long-range missilesand & trying to make missiles like the CSS-4ADF-5A icbm , a DF-21A, the CSS-6, a CSS-4, the DF-4, a CSS-X-10 and the JL-21A it also has others that it hasn't given full info to the public about but you can read up on writings from US militray experts.
Some wonder if the US political moves have pushed some partners further away and maybe the EU in space closer to Russia and China. Maybe t already has. Imagine its 1974 not 2004 and Russia is planning to launch spacecraft from a FRENCH facility in South America and help the South Koreans build launch facilities. The Chinese are staring to learn this political game, that's why they want a part of the EU new network in space, the Galileo satelite system..in the past years the Chinese industrial prodution has gone up, space designs are moving forward and the economy rose from $200 billion to $1.2 trillion correspondingly.
The American economy slowed after the Bush administration came into power.... Bush will face $500 billion of budget deficits this year, the severest deterioration after World War II...This will put greater pressure on the issue of RMB appreciation. Because of the budget and trade deficits, the U.S.
dollar becomes increasingly weaker against major currencies around the world, such as euro and Japanese yen....Meanwhile, the downward economic trend in the United States also makes Sino-U.S. trade friction worse. With the economic slowdown and high trade deficit of the United States, Sino-U.S. trade disputes will become more frequent. Statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce show that the country’s commodity trade deficit with China rose from $12.1 billion in May to $14.2 billion in June, while its deficit with the EU increasing from $7.9 billion to $10.6 billion and deficit with Japan from $5.5 billion to $6.3 billion during the same period. In recent years, the U.S. deficit with China has been growing rapidly





A Germany China alliance in Arms and Weapons

Quote:

...German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Monday called for an end to a 15-year-old European arms embargo on China .....China has warned the EU that it risks damaging bilateral ties unless it lifts a 15-year embargo on selling arms to Beijing.....At a news conference later, Schroeder noted his past calls for an end to the European Union's 15-year-old ban on weapons sales to China, and said, "My opinion hasn't changed."

Wen called the ban an outdated "result of the Cold War" and said he hoped for a decision on it at a European Union summit on Dec. 17, though he didn't say whether he expected the ban to be lifted.

Wen is expected to lobby European leaders this week at an EU-China conference in the Netherlands. Beijing says a failure to lift the arms embargo could harm diplomatic relations.
Germany and France are eager to do business with China's military, which is spending billions of dollars modernizing its arsenal, with much of the business now going to Russia. But other EU governments say Beijing has failed to do enough to improve its human rights record.....Germany and France have called for the arms ban to be lifted, while the US and some EU countries are in favour of it remaining in place.
Washington has threatened to stop the transfer of some sensitive military technology to European countries if it were to be abolished.
China pressed for the ban to be lifted at an Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) in Hanoi in October, but was not successful...back some months ago French President Jacques Chirac held a joint conference with Chinese President Hu Jintao to celebrate the "Year of China" in Paris. Chirac used the occasion to publicly call for the lifting of the European Union arms embargo on China. France and Germany have succeeded in pushing the E.U. to review the embargo and have urged the E.U. to take action before the entrance of ten new members.


Schroeder has also been criticized by members of his Social Democrat and Green party coalition for backing a lifting of the arms ban.
Meanwhile, a $1.3 billion deal signed Monday calls for a state company that buys aircraft for China's airlines to purchase Airbus A319, A320 and A321 jets, according to German officials.
Germany's DaimlerChrysler AG is a major shareholder in the European consortium that owns Airbus SAS.
China also signed contracts with German industrial giant Siemens AG to purchase railway locomotives worth $480 million and power-generation equipment for $280 million, according to Schroeder's delegation.
Also Monday, the German leader attended the laying of a cornerstone for a new Beijing factory built by DaimlerChrysler and a Chinese joint-venture partner.
China says Germany has been its biggest European trading partner for three decades. In the first 10 months of this year, their trade totaled $43.6 billion, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing figures from the Ministry of Commerce....France and Germany are pushing for an end to the embargo largely for economic reasons. The E.U. is China's third largest trade partner and, according to an October strategy paper, China expects the E.U. to become its largest source of foreign investment within five years. China's military spending has been growing by an annual rate of 17 percent even though the state has not recently been involved in any major conflicts. ...The economic and geopolitical rise of China also threatens the ability of the U.S. to act as a unique balancing power in the region. As China emerges as a great power, and Japan's slacking economy continues to marginalize its regional influence, the power structures that the U.S. has relied on in the region are being overturned.....If the E.U. pursues the path of boosting China to a position to challenge the power in the region that the U.S. currently controls, the effects of this realignment could spread around the world. Any move by the E.U. to arm China will have to account for the reaction that this power shift could unleash.






employment numbers

Quote:

...out sourcing of skilled jobs by Bush and the US admin

Nuff' said ...



Sorry this post was so long, can you think of any other examples no matter how small,
will there really be an Alliance between the West and China ?









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Monday, December 13, 2004 7:01 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Here's another point I could have included : In the next 3 years Chinese will be the web's ruler not English or Spanish but Chinese will be the No-1 language of the internet

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Monday, December 13, 2004 8:18 PM

FARSCAPEPKWARS


Can this kind of future happen between USA - China

Maybe it could

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Monday, December 13, 2004 9:43 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Some of the quotes I've posted are maybe a bit outrageous and sometimes there are a lot of doomsayers on the state of the US and its position on the global stage.

The future in Firefly is much in contrast to the one in the film BLADE RUNNER...where the future was envisioned as inevitably part-Japanese maybe German and the city dwellers spoke a mix of mashed up German/Japanese and whatever else... There is no doubt that China is growing fast and maybe Chinese will begin to exert a greater influence on the vision of our Future...it could become a dominant force. Some say the globalisation is already staring to take effect groups like Interpol and NATO can cause things to change and they work on a global level, and trading blocs like the EU, IMF and Opec to say a lot of swing. There are those West like Germany who are keen to oepn up trade of arms/weaponary to the Chinese and the US economy has also fallen back on the global stage, if the dollar does fall down further and allow other groups or nations like the Chinese to move forward it will be the fault of the current US administration and their economic policy. There are those who say this century is where China will shine, maybe it ain't science fiction afterall

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