REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Thursday, October 12, 2023 02:05
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VIEWED: 115068
PAGE 34 of 57

Monday, May 25, 2020 7:19 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I think that may be due to when deaths were reported, rather than when they occurred. I read an article about that but didn't save it. But, for a similar example, at one point in California, a backlogged lab submitted all 1500+ of its backlogged positive results in one day, making it look like a sudden jump in new cases. So I think one needs to look at LONG term trends.

DIVOC only started keeping track of hospitalized cases on April 12, 2020. And a lot of states apparently aren't routinely submitting data, making that category sketchy across states.

But if you look at per capita total (current) hospitalized cases (not apparently cumulative), linear scale, scaled-to-highlight, you can see if they're going up linearly or exponentially, plateaued, or going down.

By that category, it's easier to account for the number of exceptions to states that are increasing:

current increasing
34 states

current decreasing
Alaska


exceptions:

increasing no data in the last month
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Texas

decreasing no data in the last month
Louisiana
Michigan
Missouri
New Jersey
Vermont

plateaued no data in the last month
California
DC

no data
Nebraska
Nevada



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Monday, May 25, 2020 9:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
You were talking about 'races', JACK. The genetics of different 'races', JACK. Targeting different 'races', JACK.

So, stop being a lying bitch, ok, JACK?

Meanwhile, there's NO indication the virus was engineered to do this specifically. When you tinker with genetic code, you can come up with all sorts of results - including accidentally disabling one function.






Oh. I get it. Race is a social construct.

lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, May 25, 2020 10:55 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Yep, change the subject when you get caught being wrong ... as always!

Meanwhile, next time you talk with your bother, tell him that - sadly - one doesn't need to be old to be a useless, non-productive eater slated for disposal at the earliest opportunity.

And speaking of non-productive eaters - ya' still sucking up unemployment, JACK? Still wearing those dentures to save you from the gene-pool scrap heap?


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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 12:09 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh. I get it. Race is a social construct.



Try again. Use your big girl words.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 6:14 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 12:06 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


reposted to continue tracking the model

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections-comp
are-causes-of-death
/

One (model) stands out for the fact that it is not associated with a big-name institution. Produced by independent data scientist Youyang Gu, it has been tracking actual U.S. cases and deaths better than many.

Gu’s model projects that U.S. Covid-19 deaths by early August could be as low as 88,217 and as high as 293,381, with a most likely toll of 150,760.

With U.S. deaths from Covid-19 passing 61,000 this week, the question is as difficult as ever: Are these large numbers or small numbers?

So far this season, flu deaths total 24,000 to 62,000 (data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are estimates with wide uncertainties). Whether you think a tally as much as 12 times higher is a tragedy or merely unfortunate is a personal call. For comparison, about 8,000 Americans die every day from, almost overwhelmingly, diseases and other natural causes. Those, of course, haven’t stopped; Covid-19 deaths are in addition to those ...








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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 12:42 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

You can look at my math. At 100% infection rate not even 500,000 die here from this, and the number could be quite a bit smaller.
Quoting this for future evaluatio ... mockery.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:

You can look at my math. At 100% infection rate not even 500,000 die here from this, and the number could be quite a bit smaller.
Quoting this for future evaluatio ... mockery.




Why do you feel the need to bother?

Have I ever deleted a post that you can recall?

I'll save you some time. The answer is no.


And at 61,000 we're a long way away from a half a million, baby.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:42 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIX: You can look at my math. At 100% infection rate not even 500,000 die here from this, and the number could be quite a bit smaller.

KIKI: Quoting this for future evaluatio ... mockery.

SIX: Why do you feel the need to bother?
Have I ever deleted a post that you can recall?
I'll save you some time. The answer is no.
And at 61,000 we're a long way away from a half a million, baby.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Dood, we're at 100,000 already! You've gotten every single thing wrong about this virus, and this is just one more thing to add to the pile of wrong things.

Do try to keep up!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


No. That's a lie.

The classifications for Coomph deaths in the US pile everything else into it, and that's why ours is so high compared to other countries. You stub your fucking toe and they'll call it a Coomph death.

We are nowhere near 100,000 deaths from The Coomph, and there is absolutely ZERO chance that 1/3 of the entire deaths in the world were in the US.


Stop following Maddow's lead and use your brain. You're a lot smarter than this.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Those ~100,000 are confirmed cases JACK.

Try to have at least 1 small toe in reality.

But let's review your math and the figures you like to quote so much. There are ~325M people in the US. If the death rate is a mere 0.4% (your figure), and 100% of people get infected (your scenario) can you figure out how many people will die?

It's 4th grade arithmetic, JACK.


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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:58 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. That's a lie.

The classifications for Coomph deaths in the US pile everything else into it, and that's why ours is so high compared to other countries. You stub your fucking toe and they'll call it a Coomph death.

No, that's just careless reading on your part. You said 61,000 because that was the figure in KIKI's post and you didn't notice that she said it was a REPOST. (Old news.)

The USA has over a million confirmed cases, the next-highest on the world is Brazil with 400,000.

The cases:deaths:recovered ratios for the USA are about in line with most other nations. There's no hinky reporting going on; you've just got your head stuck up your ass.

Meanwhile, what about that 4th grade math challenge, SIX?

327,000,000 * 0.004 (or 0.003, if you want to be conservative) is what, again?

C'mon, I know you can do it!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 5:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK




lol.

Stupid Karens, carelessly Karening and being all Kareny until everybody hates them.




BTW...

Check out at around 8:30 in the video when a kid from Michigan that committed suicide was later tested positive for the virus and they attributed his death to The Coomph.

Then fucking tell me that my theory, that I proposed all the way back when all of this bullshit started, about that 25 year old Pharm tech who died a "coronavirus related" death doesn't hold water.



EVERY DAY THAT PASSES I LOOK BETTER AND BETTER.


And the both of you look more and more like T and Cap'n Crunch, and anybody else here who was drinking Maddow and Olbermann's Koolaid the last 3 years.

Fucking Deep State tools. Even sadder the fact that you don't even realize what you've become.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 5:42 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:



lol.

Stupid Karens, carelessly Karening and being all Kareny until everybody hates them.




BTW...

Check out at around 8:30 in the video when a kid from Michigan that committed suicide was later tested positive for the virus and they attributed his death to The Coomph.

Then fucking tell me that my theory, that I proposed all the way back when all of this bullshit started, about that 25 year old Pharm tech who died a "coronavirus related" death doesn't hold water.



EVERY DAY THAT PASSES I LOOK BETTER AND BETTER.


And the both of you look more and more like T and Cap'n Crunch, and anybody else here who was drinking Maddow and Olbermann's Koolaid the last 3 years.

Fucking Deep State tools. Even sadder the fact that you don't even realize what you've become.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

Oh yeah, a small number of cases accounts for all 100,000 deaths. Right.

Meanwhile, WHAT ABOUT THAT MATH PROBLEM, SIX?

YANNO, THE ONE WHERE YOU MULTIPLY THE USA POPULATION (327 MILLION) BY THE INFECTION DEATH RATE (0.3%)?

HAVE YOU DONE IT YET? OR ARE THE NUMBERS NOT CONSISTENT WITH YOUR NARRATIVE?

BECAUSE THE MORE YOU AVOID THE QUESTION, THE STUPIDER YOU LOOK.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 7:01 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Just put on your big-boy pants, JACK, and admit you were wrong.

Or remain a specially entitled precious snowflake too fragile to admit it, for all I care.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


LOL.

Why would I EVER admit that I was wrong.

I wasn't wrong. I continue to be right.



You've got a time problem, Karen. The more that passes the more foolish you're going to look.


Enjoy this moment right now. As bad as it already looks for you it's only going to go downhill from here.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:05 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Unable to deal with reality like the fragile snowflake you are?


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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:40 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So new deaths per million continue to follow established patterns. Mississippi, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio continue their steady march ever upwards. And Rhode Island. I just detected that.

Whatever it is that they're doing, everyone should do the opposite.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Unable to deal with reality like the fragile snowflake you are?





lol

Whatever you say, Karen.

Time for bed. I've actually got shit to do tomorrow and I don't get to sit around binge watching Netflix all day and being all Kareny to everybody.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:56 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.




Quote:

SIX: You can look at my math. At 100% infection rate not even 500,000 die here from this, and the number could be quite a bit smaller.


BTW - what's 0.4% x 325M?

That's the fatality rate you think is just like a cold, times your proposed 100% infection rate.

Is the result 500,000?

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 1:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Coronavirus Uses Same Strategy As HIV To Evade, Cripple Immune System: Chinese Study Finds

The ORF8 Protein of SARS-CoV-2 Mediates Immune Evasion through Potently Downregulating MHC-I
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.111823v1

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-ev
ade-immune-response-chinese-study-finds

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Friday, May 29, 2020 3:22 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Coronavirus Epidemics Began Later Than Believed, Study Concludes
In Washington State and Italy, the first confirmed cases were not linked to the outbreaks that followed, the analysis found. The epidemics were seeded later.


The first confirmed coronavirus infections in Europe and the United States, discovered in January, did not ignite the epidemics that followed, according to a close analysis of hundreds of viral genomes. Instead, the outbreaks plaguing much of the West began weeks later, the study concluded. The revised timeline may clarify nagging ambiguities about the arrival of the pandemic.

For example, while President Trump has frequently claimed that a ban on travelers from China prevented the epidemic from becoming much worse, the new data suggest that the virus that started Washington State’s epidemic arrived roughly two weeks after the ban was imposed on Feb. 2.

And the authors argue that the relatively late emergence of the outbreak means that more lives could have been saved by early action, such as testing and contact tracing.

The new analysis is not the last word. Scientific understanding of the coronavirus is evolving almost daily, and this type of research yields a range of possible results, not complete certainty.

Many infections in Washington State seem to have occurred in early February, and other models suggested that the epidemic there began closer to the beginning of the month.

But a number of virus experts said that the new report convincingly rules out a connection between the first confirmed cases and the later outbreaks. “This paper clearly shows this didn’t happen,” said Kristian Andersen, a computational biologist at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, who was not involved in the research.

Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona, and his colleagues posted a preliminary version of their study online on Saturday. It has not yet been published in a scientific journal.

Viruses develop genetic mutations at a roughly regular rate as they multiply. Scientists can use these mutations to reconstruct a virus’s movement through a population and to estimate when an outbreak began in a region.

The first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States was a man who flew from China to the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Jan. 15. Researchers sequenced the genome of his virus, which came to be known as WA1.

The man, who lived in Snohomish County, was hospitalized in isolation and recovered. On Feb. 24, a Snohomish teenager with flulike symptoms also tested positive for the coronavirus.

Trevor Bedford, a geneticist at the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, and his colleagues discovered that this viral genome was nearly identical to WA1, except for two new mutations. They called the second virus WA2.

Alarmed, he and his colleagues concluded that the most likely explanation for the slight difference was that WA1 had circulated in Washington State for six weeks, gaining the mutations along the way. The implication was that there might be hundreds of people already infected in the state, setting the stage for an explosion of cases. Officials reacted to the news with aggressive measures that public health experts credit with reining in the outbreak.

Initially, Dr. Worobey found the work by Dr. Bedford and his colleagues “pretty darn convincing.” But as time passed, he said in an interview, “something at the back of my mind started niggling away.”

Viruses are far more prone to genetic mutations than other living things. But as viruses go, the new coronavirus is a slowpoke — much more stable than influenza viruses, for example. It seemed unlikely to Dr. Worobey for the coronavirus to have gained two mutations in just weeks.

As the epidemic spread, Dr. Bedford and his colleagues examined hundreds of coronavirus genomes from Washington State. None of the genomes matched WA1. They all shared the two mutations found in WA2.

How Coronavirus Mutates and Spreads

Dr. Worobey and his colleagues decided to take a further look. They replayed the outbreak thousands of times on a computer running a program that simulates what we know so far about how the new coronavirus spreads and mutates.

When the researchers modeled WA1 as the source of the Washington State outbreak, the computer could not reproduce the viral mutations found there in later weeks. It was close to impossible for WA1 to have seeded the outbreak, the scientists decided. It was far more likely that the WA2 group of viruses was introduced to Washington from China sometime around Feb. 13th and set off the epidemic.

That was about two weeks after Mr. Trump banned most travelers from China. According to an analysis by The New York Times, however, about 40,000 people made the journey to the United States in the two months after those restrictions were imposed. Many were admitted under rules that exempted American citizens and others. They were funneled to a few international hubs, including Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

Dr. Worobey speculated that the virus that started the state’s epidemic arrived by that route, or perhaps to the Seattle area via Vancouver. There was no stealthy community spread of the coronavirus in January in the state, the analysis concluded; the epidemic began soon after the virus that started it arrived.

In an interview, Dr. Bedford said of the new research, “I think it’s a very clever way to do things.” On Twitter, he accepted many of the conclusions: “I believe I was wrong in the original assessment of a WA1 introduction,” he wrote.

Still, Dr. Bedford and his colleagues have continued their own study of the Washington State outbreak, and they now estimate it began around Feb. 1 — about two weeks earlier than Dr. Worobey’s estimate. Dr. Bedford found it unlikely that a virus that appeared around Feb. 13 could produce a large outbreak by the end of the month. But Dr. Worobey’s team found a similar pattern in the arrival of the new coronavirus in Europe.

On Jan. 20, a woman who had traveled from China to Germany met with her colleagues at an auto supply company. She didn’t realize she was sick, and infected a man at the meeting.

Scientists gathered that virus’s genetic signature and called it BavPat1. That virus spread to 16 people in the company — but then disappeared.

At the end of February, Italy saw Europe’s first outbreak. The coronaviruses there were genetically very close to BavPat1, scientists found, leading to suspicions that a German traveler had brought the virus to Italy.

That’s not the case, according to Dr. Worobey’s analysis. According to the computer simulations, another introduction of the coronavirus from China probably was responsible, and it may have arrived in early or mid-February. “The lineage just happened to get into Europe and run wild,” Dr. Worobey said.

This viral line then hopped from Europe to New York several times, Dr. Worobey and his colleagues found, confirming previous studies. They estimated that the coronaviruses circulating in the city by March were introduced into the city around Feb. 20.

Around the world, the new study suggests, the coronavirus arrived more than once without starting runaway outbreaks. In these cases, there was little or no transmission, and the virus simply died out.

To Dr. Worobey, the time before the pandemic took off in the United States was a lost opportunity, when testing and contact tracing could have made a big difference. “There were weeks before the virus really got a foothold,” he said. “It does start to make those missteps seem much more consequential.”

The study is “a very careful and rigorous analysis of what we can and can’t say about the U.S. and European outbreaks from genomic data,” said Edward Holmes, a virologist at the University of Sydney who was not involved in the study. “To me, what this all highlights are the challenges about drawing strong conclusions on virus introductions and spread based on limited data.”

This updated view of the history of the pandemic is exactly how science is supposed to work, said Dr. Andersen of Scripps Research. Scientists look for the best interpretation of data — and then keep looking.

But it can be unsettling for the public to watch scientific consensus shift in real time. “We have to live with that uncertainty,” Dr. Andersen said.

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Friday, May 29, 2020 4:11 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:


Quote:

SIX: You can look at my math. At 100% infection rate not even 500,000 die here from this, and the number could be quite a bit smaller.


BTW - what's 0.4% x 325M?

That's the fatality rate you think is just like a cold, times your proposed 100% infection rate.

Is the result 500,000?




I don't recognize your .4%

I don't recognize the 100k dead number that is hyper-inflated by adding tens of thousands of non-Coomph deaths either.


But keep pretending you're smarter than me.

Time will prove me right again.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, May 29, 2020 4:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:

Coronavirus Uses Same Strategy As HIV To Evade, Cripple Immune System: Chinese Study Finds

The ORF8 Protein of SARS-CoV-2 Mediates Immune Evasion through Potently Downregulating MHC-I
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.111823v1

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-ev
ade-immune-response-chinese-study-finds





Yup. Let's believe China now too.

We're already believing everything Maddow has to say. Short leap.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, May 29, 2020 1:19 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

I watch Madcow!!! Even when nobody else does!

And I'm TOTALLY ironic when I post this!
Do Right, Be Right. :)

fify


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Friday, May 29, 2020 1:23 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

I can't think, I can't read, I don't care about anyone but me.


But I'll keep pretending I'm smart.

Time will prove me right about myself!


And I'm TOTALLY ironic when I post this!
Do Right, Be Right. :)



fify


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Friday, May 29, 2020 1:25 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.




Thanks! for this post, Signy! It clarifies, formulates, and expounds on a notion I had.

Way back when I supposed that perhaps NYC or other large outbreaks of COVID-19 were driven by exceptional events - I called them super super-spreaders - more likely found and exploited by the virus when there are large numbers of people --- and that are noticed only when a super super-spreader encounters a large naive population. A super super-spreader may start a transmission chain of tens of thousands in a large naive population; but that same super super-spreader may start a transmission chain of only 100 in a small community (where the chain of transmission would be damped out by either the statistical improbability of encountering another super super-spreader, or by the physically small number of a naive population that gets exposed.).

That would explain NYC, Italy and Spain, and the initial infection wave of the Diamond Princess.

And it explains further the fact that Mardi Gras sparked outbreaks in Louisiana, Detroit, Chicago, and several other places of returned revelers, which then damped out.

So I'll alter that and say that maybe large outbreaks are driven by one super super-spreader in very large gatherings like Grand Central Station, perhaps infecting other super super-spreaders.

But as you've noted, and which I've been puzzling over, that leaves California (specifically Los Angeles County), the prolonged transmission of the Diamond Princess, and the Navajo Nation unexplained.

Still, I thank you so much! for finding this and understanding the significance it seems to have in puzzling out how SARS-COV-2 moves through populations.

SARS-COV-2 seems to me to not move uniformly through a population, and its transmission has been puzzling me.


So THANK YOU!! so much again!

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I ran across this at Moon of Alabama

Quote:

How Cluster Cases Drive The Covid Pandemic

One of the many mysteries of the Covid-19 pandemic is how the disease actually spreads. We were told to wash hands and about the dangers of droplets in one to one contacts. But newer evidence continues to point in another direction.

There are more and more reports about cases where the infections seems to have spread by aerosol, droplets smaller than 5µm in diameter, instead of by bigger droplets or fomites like surfaces and objects. Lambert Strether has collected reports of cluster cases in restaurants, buses, ships and a callcenter where aerosol transmission was the most likely cause:

There’s mounting evidence that airborne transmission indoors is a key — perhaps the main — pathway to SARS-COV-2 transmission. In this post I want to look at why that’s so, give examples, and suggest a simple heuristic to stay safe....

That paragraph is footnoted with a link to a WHO recommendation from March.

WHO has been corrupt since the beginning
Quote:

Since then much has been learned about cluster cases in which aerosols were the most likely transmitter of the disease.

Aerosols are droplets smaller than 5 micrometers. At that small size they do not fall to the ground but float in the airstream. Unlike droplets they are not a problem outside of closed rooms as the normal air movement will start to disperse them immediately.

A study in Hubei tracked down 318 cluster creating incidents in which at least 3 persons were involved. It found that only one happened in open air. A Japanese study says that the risk of infection indoors are 19 times higher than outdoors.

An early study has found that the secondary attack rate in households defined as "the probability that an infection occurs among susceptible people within a specific group (ie, household or close contacts)" is quite low at some 35%. Other studies have come to even lower values of some 25%. There were a number of reports of families where only one or two persons were infected while other members of the household did not catch the disease.

But the overall reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is estimated to be somewhere between 2 and 3. That means that without isolation measures each newly infected person will on average infect 2 to 3 other persons. How does that fit with the relatively low secondary infections in households?

Science has published a must read piece that explains this conundrum:

Other infectious diseases also spread in clusters. But COVID-19, like two of its cousins, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), seems especially prone to attacking groups of tightly connected people while sparing others. It's an encouraging finding, scientists say, because it suggests that restricting gatherings where superspreading is likely to occur will have a major impact on transmission and that other restrictions—on outdoor activity, for example—might be eased.
...
Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don't spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”

That's why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.

Current estimates of the dispersion factor k for SARS-CoV-2 vary between 0.1 and 0.5. That means that cluster infections from relatively few superspreading events drive the epidemic more than single transmissions from one person to another person.


This explains the success of the Japanese strategy which brought the epidemic in that country down without ordering strict lockdown measures:

As of Thursday, Japan had confirmed more than 16,000 infections and about 900 deaths from the virus, by far the lowest figures among the Group of Seven major economies.

Japan has urged people to avoid environments with what it calls the “Three Cs”, meaning close contact in closed-off, crowded spaces, where experts say most infections have occurred.

Without knowing if the measures would work Japan picked the right strategy. Only those events and places where superspreading is most likely to occur where shunned. Additionally the people in Japan actually wear their masks and generally health conscious and disciplined.

I think masking plays a far larger role in limiting the spread than avoiding the "three C's".

Quote:

Unfortunately it is unlikely that 'western' nations will develop such discipline.

Yves Smith has written about her recent personal experience in a hospital in Alabama where even the staff was not wearing masks and was also otherwise quite careless. This at a time where numbers in Alabama are surging.

MORE AT https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/05/cluster-cases-drive-the-covid-pa
ndemic.html#more


So maybe there really ARE super-spreaders ... people who just shed and transmit viruses way more efficiently than anyone else.

So every time you have a LARGE group of people in relatively cramped indoor circumstances ... church, gym, sporting event, political rally, assisted living facility, military training, dance club etc ... not only do you increase the number of people potentially a risk, you also significantly raise the probability that a super-spreader will be among them.

That doesn't explain Los Angeles' steady incremental increase of infections and deaths, tho. I'm not privy to the details of Los Angeles' data, but - mostly- clusters have not been identified.




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re posting this in new deadly ... thread

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63571&p=14

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Friday, May 29, 2020 2:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Thanks for putting that article here, where it belongs.

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Friday, May 29, 2020 4:07 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I have some Lancet news, but no time to post. Later!

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Friday, May 29, 2020 5:15 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I'm looking forward to your post!

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Friday, May 29, 2020 6:01 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Just some continued musing:

I think there is more than one mode of transmission, driven I think by different types of infectivity as well as different settings.

1) large populations/ high interconnectivity/ super super-spreaders
Large populations with high interconnectivity are like a carefully built fire with punk, twigs, and logs set in place. EXPLOSIVE, EXTREME SARS-COV-2 spread is INEVITABLE in that situation over time, if there are enough endemic SARS-COV-2 cases freely moving within, or enough SARS-COV-2 cases imported into, that population. By probability, sooner or later, a super superspreader will seed enough people so that another super superspreader will catch it. What you then have is multiple super superspreader outbreaks merging into one massive, explosive outbreak. And that outbreak has a positive feedback loop, until it's interrupted by extreme means - by interrupting the high interconnectivity. Wuhan, SK's Shincheonji Church of Jesus the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony - which was seeded by services in Wuhan, Northern Italy, NYC, and Spain I think are all examples.

2) dispersed populations/ constant import/ (close contact dwellings)
When a population is dispersed and interactions are few and infrequent, I posit spread can be explained by constant import. Data will test this out in the future. I believe that may explain the sad spread into families of the Navajo Nation, where - once a family experiences a case - it then spreads through close contact in the multigenerational households. You don't have to be a superspreader with such a high level of close contact. When infections in the population are at low enough levels, without constant import, SARS-COV-2 would naturally decrease as it has in Alaska, Hawaii, and New Zealand.

3) endemic SARS-COV-2
Sooner or later SARS-COV-2 becomes endemic. There are so many infected people scattered across the population that there is no longer a main point of entry for the virus. It's just always there somewhere, at some level. This for me is the hardest situation to parse out.

Anyway, I'll need to get going on things, and get back to this later. But I'm also considering that there may be PERSISTENT SPREADERS.

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 4:09 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SWEDEN IS #1!

In new deaths per day per million, that is!

It's a position to be proud of, I'm sure.

But, not to worry: Brazil (another "do nothing" nation) is pulling up fast and making a strong bid to take the lead!

*****

Also, nearly every state's new deaths per million took a tic up in the past 1-3 days. I would say it's for too early to establish a trend, but it sure is an interesting coincidence. I don't expect to see an established trend (if one is going to be established) until about mid-June.

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 5:04 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, about the Lancet article.

It supposedly involved an observational study of nearly 96,000 patients across six continents who were/weren't given hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and found there was no benefit but an increased risk of death because of cardiac complications.

This study halted a number of clinical trials around the world and caused some nations to pause or reverse their policies on administering HCQ as a preventive antiviral or standard treatment.

However, there were such serious red flags raised about the study that they give the impression that the study itself was fraudulent.

Some of the objections raised included:

The study was published approximately a month after it was concluded. According to people who have conducted pharmaceutical research, negotiating the ethics and privacy concerns with so many hospitals in so many nations alone would take months, let alone transcribing data into a standard format, making databases talk to each other, calculating the statistics, and checking the results.

The study lists only four authors including one statistician. Again, from people who've conducted similar research, the number of contributors would be extremely long, and there would be many people involved in writing the paper, not just four.

The data was provided by a medical data collection company, Surgisphere, which itself is only six months old and consists of only six people.

Relevant data, like the study's number of deaths in the Australia-Pacific region (73), did not match the number of deaths listed by Australian and NZ health services (67).

Meanwhile, Australia's federal health department confirmed to Guardian Australia that data collected on COVID-19 in the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System was not the source for informing the trial. The news outlet also contacted the New South Wales and Victoria health departments, both of which said they did not provide researchers with data for the study... Melbourne epidemiologist Dr. Allen Cheng has questions. For example, he said that the four Australian hospitals involved in the study should be named, that he's never heard of Surgisphere, and that nobody from his hospital, The Alfred, has provided Surgisphere with data.

The data is suspiciously "clean"; the number of similar patients are almost always nearly evenly matched, and confidence intervals are very similar across the board.

Data from Africa includes a very large number of patients with data quality indicating near real-time measurement of things like cardiac arrhythmias, which is unlikely given the undeveloped state of most African hospitals.

HCQ was given in doses at least 100 mg higher than recommended, an implausible event in litigious societies like the USA and EU.

In fact, none of the raw de-identified data is available for examination because it is "proprietary", as well as the software used to reduce it, and there is no list of contributing hospitals or doctors anywhere.

The study's deficiencies were so striking that an open letter was written to The Lancet's editor-in-chief, and signed by over 200 doctors, epidemiologists,

Quote:


Counties with the most COVID-19 cases
McConnell: Next stimulus bill will be 'final' one
Bloomberg logo Study Linking Hydroxychloroquine to Covid Risks Questioned

(Bloomberg) --

Scientists are raising questions about a study that linked antimalarial drugs to increased heart risks and death among Covid-19 patients.

The study, published last week in The Lancet medical journal, found high rates of dangerous side effects in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, and some work on testing the drugs in patients has been suspended based on the concerns it raised. A group of some 120 researchers signed a letter pointing out inconsistencies, calling on the authors and The Lancet to reveal more details about their analysis.

Backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said he took a course of hydroxychloroquine to ward off the virus, the drugs have become a political and medical bone of contention. A separate scientific article that had lent support to using them against the coronavirus was withdrawn by its authors last week because of the controversy.

Not long after The Lancet study was published, the World Health Organization suspended a portion of a global study of potential Covid-19 treatments that included the antimalaria drugs because of safety concerns. On Friday, the WHO released a summary of its results to date, saying it found little or no benefit from use of the drugs compared with standard care, whether or not they were paired with an antibiotic. The agency cautioned that the evidence was of “very low certainty.”

Where Are We in Quest for Coronavirus Drugs, Vaccine?: QuickTake

French drugmaker Sanofi said Friday that it was halting patient recruitment in its trials of hydroxychloroquine for treating Covid. The company also said it will stop releasing the drug for off-label use in Covid-19 “until current safety concerns are cleared by WHO.”

Researchers have said that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine need to be tested against the coronavirus in randomized clinical trials before they can be recommended. Only Gilead Sciences Inc.’s remdesivir has been shown to benefit patients by this measure.

The Lancet study, led by Mandeep Mehra of Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, looked at the medical records of 96,000 coronavirus patients around the world, about 15,000 of whom were treated with antimalarials. Some of the patients also received antibiotics that are thought to enhance the benefit of the antimalarial drugs.
High Doses

The letter pointed out 14 major shortcomings in the paper, including that computer code used to analyze the data wasn’t made public, and that no information was included on the medical centers that contributed data. It also said that rates of deaths reported from Africa seemed “unlikely,” that the daily doses purportedly received by some U.S. patients appeared higher than recommended, and that the level of chloroquine use in some continents was “implausible.”




https://www.zerohedge.com/health/lancet-study-caused-who-drop-hydroxyc
hloroquine-trials-falls-under-scrutiny

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/28/questions-raised-over-
hydroxychloroquine-study-which-caused-who-to-halt-trials-for-covid-19

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/study-linking-hydroxychloroqu
ine-to-covid-risks-questioned/ar-BB14KMAp


There is a Chris Martenson video about this, but it looks like it was scrubbed from YouTube because I just listened to it yesterday and it's not around today.






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Saturday, May 30, 2020 8:01 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


It does seem the Lancet study may have been artificially enhanced (at best) to drive the market to the more expensive and only current alternative remdesivir. And it's really distressing that a critical video should have been pulled from yoobtoob, and so quickly. God forbid people be exposed to ideas that might cause them to think.

But the problem with HCQ/ CQ causing heart arrhythmias is well known, as both drugs have been used for a long time not only against malaria, but against "rheumatoid arthritis and discoid or systemic lupus erythematosus". The various risks are well-known. So the data itself is in line with already-known side effects.

Anyway, whether the study is jinked or not (and I'd hope The Lancet would disclose its vetting procedure at least), no criticism of it should be suppressed.

"Taking hydroxychloroquine long-term or at high doses may cause irreversible damage to the retina of your eye. Stop taking hydroxychloroquine and call your doctor at once if you have blurred vision, trouble focusing, distorted vision, blind spots, trouble reading, changes in your color vision, increased sensitivity to light.

Before using hydroxychloroquine, tell your doctor if you are allergic to any drugs, or if you have psoriasis, porphyria, liver disease, alcoholism, or glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G-6-PD) deficiency.

Call a poison control center at once and then seek emergency medical attention if you think you have used too much of this medicine. An overdose of hydroxychloroquine can be fatal, especially in children.

When treating lupus or arthritis, tell your doctor if your symptoms do not improve after 6 months of treatment.

Before taking this medicine

You should not use hydroxychloroquine if you are allergic to hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine.

High doses or long-term use of hydroxychloroquine may cause irreversible damage to your retina (the membrane layer inside your eye that helps produce vision). This could progress to permanent vision problems. The risk of retinal damage is higher in people with pre-existing eye problems, kidney disease, or people who also take tamoxifen.

To make sure hydroxychloroquine is safe for you, tell your doctor if you have ever had:
vision changes or damage to your retina caused by an anti-malaria medication;
heart disease, heart rhythm disorder (such as long QT syndrome);
diabetes;
a stomach disorder;
an allergy to quinine;
liver or kidney disease;
psoriasis;
alcoholism;
porphyria (a genetic enzyme disorder that causes symptoms affecting the skin or nervous system); or
a genetic enzyme deficiency called glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)* deficiency."

https://www.drugs.com/hydroxychloroquine.html

* prevalence of G6PD deficiency is about 9.5% in African Americans. Treatment with HCQ/ CQ can cause fatal breakdown (hemolysis) of red blood cells.

https://health.mil/News/Articles/2019/12/01/Prevalence-of-Glucose

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 1:47 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Video was not directly findable on YouTube, but viewable on Dr Martenson's channel




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Monday, June 1, 2020 6:10 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I'm providing a link (article found in a number of places, so I'm posting one at random) but not posting the article itself.

The guy interviewed addresses my questions about SARS-COV-2 -how it moves through a population.

And he dangles a few interesting ideas but doesn't fully flesh them out, which leaves more questions than he answers. He goes completely off the rails in other places, stating things as fact which aren't at all true (for example, that California has less than 100 deaths when in fact at the time of the interview it was over 2,000.). Finally, the article itself appears to be seriously badly edited with cut and paste with random long phrases repeated verbatim within the text and random words dropped out ... edits not indicated anywhere in the text of this supposed transcript. And it's a month out of date.

Sigh.

It could have been a good article. But the interviewer didn't challenge the interviewee on facts that were egregiously wrong or look for clarification on points of self-contradiction, the interviewee was blathering, and the editing was suspicious.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobel-prize-winner-lockdowns-are-hug
e-mistake



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Tuesday, June 2, 2020 12:08 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


In our study, just 20 percent of cases, all of them involving social gatherings, accounted for an astonishing 80 percent of transmissions. (That, along with other things, suggests that the dispersion factor, k, of SARS-CoV-2 is about 0.45).

Another 10 percent of cases accounted for the remaining 20 percent of transmissions — with each of these infected people on average spreading the virus to only one other person, maybe two people. This mostly occurred within households.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/opinion/coronavirus-superspreaders.
html

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Tuesday, June 2, 2020 8:42 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Apparently an independent audit is being done on the HCQ study. The Lancet published an 'expression of concern'.

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673
620312903.pdf


"Important scientific questions have been raised about data reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra et al — Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis1 — published in The Lancet on May 22, 2020.

"Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention. We will update this notice as soon as we have further information."


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Wednesday, June 3, 2020 10:39 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died

Sweden's controversial decision not to impose a strict lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic led to too many deaths, the man behind the policy, Anders Tegnell, has acknowledged. Dr Tegnell told Swedish radio more should have been done early on. "There is quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done."


Sweden has seen a far higher mortality rate than its nearest neighbours and its nationals are being barred from crossing their borders. Sweden has counted 4,468 deaths and 38,589 infections in a population of 10 million ... Denmark has seen 580 deaths, Norway has had 237 deaths and Finland 320.

How Tegnell's views have changed

Dr Tegnell, who is Sweden's state epidemiologist and in charge of the country's response to Covid-19, told BBC News in April that the high death toll was mainly because homes for the elderly had been unable to keep the disease out, although he emphasised that "does not disqualify our strategy as a whole".

Now he has told Swedish public radio: "If we were to encounter the same disease again, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done."

When asked if too many people had died too soon, Dr Tegnell said, "Yes, absolutely."

...

Sweden's former state epidemiologist Annika Linde believes Sweden got its response wrong and should have focused on three things:

An early lockdown
Greater protection of care homes
Intensive testing and contact tracing in areas of outbreaks



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52903717

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Wednesday, June 3, 2020 11:28 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Apparently an independent audit is being done on the HCQ study. The Lancet published an 'expression of concern'.

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673
620312903.pdf


"Important scientific questions have been raised about data reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra et al — Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis1 — published in The Lancet on May 22, 2020.

"Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention. We will update this notice as soon as we have further information."


What is the editor-in-chief's job, if not to prevent SERIOUSLY flawed papers from being published in such a prestigious journal? Didn't his spidey-sense, or that of any of his staff of junior and senior editors, tingle when they saw this paper?

Have they not seen literally thousands of medical research papers by now to catch a whiff of how odd this paper was, just in terms of speed of publication, number of authors, lack of attribution etc? Editor-in-chief should resign.

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Wednesday, June 3, 2020 2:40 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Supposedly:
Quote:

The Lancet is stringently edited and peer-reviewed to ensure the scientific merit and clinical relevance of its diverse content.

https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-lancet/


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Wednesday, June 3, 2020 3:30 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


At this point, only Hawaii and Washington appear to have brought COVID-19 to a standstill. All other states are seeing rising numbers.

When I check DIVOC-91 I check 'hospitalized' cases because it's not necessarily hostage to the number of tests run. (People may be officially reported with COVID-19 and hospitalized for it based on clinical symptoms, because they have to be categorized before they're being treated.)

The 34 states with 'hospitalized' data all still have a rising number of cases, meaning more are being admitted than are being discharged, except Hawaii and Washington, which have leveled out.

For those states that don't have hospitalization data, I did look at 'total confirmed cases'.

After seeming to have bent the curve, in the last week Alaska has taken a sharp rise, possible due to more testing of First Nations peoples.

California is still on track with what appears to be an upward sloping quadratic curve.

Delaware is still increasing, but appears to be starting to bend the curve over the last 3 days. The same is true of DC and Michigan. And perhaps Illinois might have a smidge lower rate over the last 2 days.

Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska look to be on a steep linear line up, Louisiana on a shallower linear line up, while Nevada is linear at about 45deg between the 2 extremes.

Like California, N Carolina and Texas seem to have bent the curve up.

Pennsylvania is continuing to very gradually bend the curve over a long time.

After having almost broken the curve about 3 weeks ago, Vermont went from being on a steep linear line up to a shallow linear line up.

West Virginia has seen a few jumps up and is now on a higher linear plane.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 4:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Researchers just retracted a massive study on whether a common malaria pill can help treat coronavirus

https://www.businessinsider.com/lancet-retracts-observational-study-on
-hydroxychloroquine-for-study-2020-6





Retraction: "Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis"

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246


Retraction—Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis

After publication of our Lancet Article,1 several concerns were raised with respect to the veracity of the data and analyses conducted by Surgisphere Corporation and its founder and our co-author, Sapan Desai, in our publication. We launched an independent third-party peer review of Surgisphere with the consent of Sapan Desai to evaluate the origination of the database elements, to confirm the completeness of the database, and to replicate the analyses presented in the paper.
Our independent peer reviewers informed us that Surgisphere would not transfer the full dataset, client contracts, and the full ISO audit report to their servers for analysis as such transfer would violate client agreements and confidentiality requirements. As such, our reviewers were not able to conduct an independent and private peer review and therefore notified us of their withdrawal from the peer-review process.
We always aspire to perform our research in accordance with the highest ethical and professional guidelines. We can never forget the responsibility we have as researchers to scrupulously ensure that we rely on data sources that adhere to our high standards. Based on this development, we can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources. Due to this unfortunate development, the authors request that the paper be retracted.
We all entered this collaboration to contribute in good faith and at a time of great need during the COVID-19 pandemic. We deeply apologise to you, the editors, and the journal readership for any embarrassment or inconvenience that this may have caused.

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673
620313246.pdf

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:05 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Apparently JPMorgan, in its analysis of SARS-COV-2, has found that there are a number of factors that go into reducing R0. And because of that, merely counting the number of days after easing restrictions to see if a second wave is coming is inadequate.
Quote:

... this way of counting the days is misleading, and it will take a while longer before we know whether restrictions have been eased too much or not.
Quote:

Mackie writes that the collapse in mobility when lockdown restrictions were imposed played a key role in driving the reproduction number (R-naught) below one. But, mobility has not been the only development weighing on the reproduction number, with JPM claiming that a number of other developments, including the buildup of immunity in the population, the reduced susceptibility of young people, the prospect of self-isolation of vulnerable individuals, the impact of weather and the impact of wearing masks and increased hygiene, (emphasis in original) all exert downward pressure on the reproduction number as mobility increases.

The bank’s analysis suggested that only when mobility increases more than halfway back from full-lockdown levels to pre-lockdown levels is there a risk of the reproduction number moving back above one. (emphasis in original) This suggests that, in assessing the risk of a second wave (or counting down the days to one), we should start counting the days from the moment that mobility in each country returns to the halfway mark. (emphasis in original)

Quote:

The bank’s conclusion: “A second wave of COVID-19 infection may or may not come to Western Europe. But it is much too early to assume that it won’t.”

One final note: we are confident that the largest US bank being one of the biggest beneficiaries of a new round of massive QE to be launched by the Fed if and when a second wave hits, had almost no (emphasis in article) impact on this analysis.



https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-counting-days-until-second-
covid-wave

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 7:42 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


More papers are coming out re the SARS-COV-2 HIV-like insertions and the possible/ probable semi-engineered nature of the virus, as well as the possible/ probable difficulties of creating a vaccine due to its nature. *

*eta: I haven't posted links because I haven't taken the time to try and dig back down to original papers or pre-prints.

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Friday, June 5, 2020 1:29 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Another study, this one in the NEJM, also utilizing the data aggregator/ broker Surgisphere Corporation, was retracted, also due to the failure of Surgisphere Corporation to participate in an independent audit of its data.


Retraction: Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.

To the Editor:

Because all the authors were not granted access to the raw data and the raw data could not be made available to a third-party auditor, we are unable to validate the primary data sources underlying our article, “Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19.”1 We therefore request that the article be retracted. We apologize to the editors and to readers of the Journal for the difficulties that this has caused.

Mandeep R. Mehra, M.D.
Brigham and Women’s Hospital Heart and Vascular Center, Boston, MA
mmehra@bwh.harvard.edu

Sapan S. Desai, M.D., Ph.D.
Surgisphere, Chicago, IL

SreyRam Kuy, M.D., M.H.S.
Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX

Timothy D. Henry, M.D.
Christ Hospital, Cincinnati, OH

Amit N. Patel, M.D.
University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

This letter was published on June 4, 2020, at NEJM.org.




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Saturday, June 6, 2020 1:06 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


20% of cases were responsible for 80% of local transmission


Clustering and superspreading potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Hong Kong

Abstract
Superspreading events have characterised previous epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections. Using contact tracing data, we identified and characterized SARS-CoV-2 clusters in Hong Kong. Given a superspreading threshold of 6-8 secondary cases, we identified 5-7 probable superspreading events and evidence of substantial overdispersion in transmissibility, and estimated that 20% of cases were responsible for 80% of local transmission. Among terminal cluster cases, 27% (45/167) ended in quarantine. Social exposures produced a greater number of secondary cases compared to family or work exposures (p<0.001) while delays between symptom onset and isolation did not reliably predict the number of individual secondary cases or resulting cluster sizes. Public health authorities should focus on rapid tracing and quarantine of contacts, along with physical distancing to prevent superspreading events in high-risk social environments.



https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-29548/v1

The upshot of the research is that a very small number of cases drives a large part of the transmission - and that most cases transmit SARS-CoV-2 to a very limited number of people.

It would be too long a study for me to try to unscramble the statistics. But this does kind of fit with what I was thinking - that there are superspreaders who drive a large number of cases. And it seems logical to me that in an intensely urban environment, you can have superspreaders transmitting to other superspreaders in a runaway chain reaction, kind of like a nuclear explosion.

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Saturday, June 6, 2020 5:23 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


The combinations of 2 things - super-spreaders and favorable conditions (highly concentrated populations with a high degree of mixing who may also have multi-generational households) explains to me some of how SARS-CoV-2 moves through populations.

It explains to me Wuhan; N. Italy and Spain (both seeded by a massive super-spreader soccer-match event between the two); and NYC and surrounding areas with tightly integrated populations (NJ, Connecticut, Massachusetts). These areas are favorable to runaway chain-reactions in the presence of super-spreaders and the absence of effective controls.

I explains to me how the super-spreading Mardi Gras event sparked a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Louisiana; and how the super-spreading spring break student-return event carried SARS-CoV-2 epidemics back to Chicago (Illinois), Detroit (Michigan), the NYC area, Delaware, DC, and Rhode Island. But that since effective controls were already in place, the epidemics were damped-out.

I think it explains how very early cases detected in many places didn't lead to explosive transmission anywhere I can think of. They didn't happen to land on a superspreader who could start a chain reaction in favorable conditions.



It doesn't explain to me the slow but relentless rise in cases in California, driven mostly by SoCal data; or the persistence in many places that're primarily rural. Both places to me don't have the proper favorable conditions for anything other than damping down, either due to controls put in place (SoCal) or due to dispersed somewhat disconnected populations. There doesn't seem to me to be conditions favorable to anything other than disconnected spread to dead-end cases. Perhaps cell phone tracking data would reveal a reality different from my assumptions. * (* ETA: This is not an endorsement of cell-phone tracking. I feel I need to state that specifically, since JACK lies frequently about what he claims I'm thinking, what he claims I've posted, etc. I find cell phone tracking repulsive. My comment was simply a hypothetical question.)

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Saturday, June 6, 2020 10:41 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Looking around, it looks like Los Angeles County gets a D- for social distancing, which could help explain the poor results. But what they're tracking and what goes into that grade isn't clear.

Los Angeles county https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=coun
ty&fips=06037

home page: https://www.unacast.com/


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Sunday, June 7, 2020 9:32 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Lancet has retracted the paper, and Surgisphere (the source of the "data") is under investigation.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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