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IRAN: Trump's war?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 16, 2024 12:11
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Sunday, June 23, 2019 5:15 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Trump was pretty clear when he was campaigning that Iran was the exception to his non-interventionist policy. (Not that Trump has made much success of troop withdrawal and non-intervention anyway.) Even Michael Flynn was pretty hot against Iran. Flynn was also pro-Erdogan.

Russia isn't really keen on a mideast conflagration. I keep reading that Russia and Iran have very different ideas on what they want the Mideast to look like, and Iran has in reality made good progress in completing the Shia Crescent by supporting Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. So there is good reason to try and thwart Iran's ambitions, and the current leaders of Iran may be just Trump-like enough to use "maximum pressure" themselves against Trump. Which, again, makes it all the more strange that Trump backed down.

I think what Russia has proposed to Iran is that they'll get around the sanctions by facilitating Iran's oil trade with Russia and with China, in an oil-for-goods deal that will blunt the sanctions worst effects. I don't know if that's good enough for Iran, or if the Iranian leadership really wants to bloody Trump's nose.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 7:43 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Anyway, back to Iran.

I speculate that a reason why Bolt-on and Pompous are in the administration is because Trump figured they would eagerly back his Iran plans. Which makes Trump backing-down even more unusual. Someone must have made him see the light.

Trump is claiming nobody made him see the light because he will bomb Iran later:

President Trump criticized the media on Saturday for reporting that he halted plans for a military strike on Iran, tweeting that he had merely ordered the strike to not go forward "at this time."

In a tweet Saturday evening, the president appeared to indicate that a military strike on Iran could be possible in the coming days unless tensions between the two countries eased.

"I never called the strike against Iran “BACK,” as people are incorrectly reporting, I just stopped it from going forward at this time!" Trump tweeted.

The White House did not immediately return a request for clarification on the president's tweet.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/449876-trump-claims-media-
got-it-wrong-on-iran-strike-i-never-called-the


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 8:02 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Trump was pretty clear when he was campaigning that Iran was the exception to his non-interventionist policy. (Not that Trump has made much success of troop withdrawal and non-intervention anyway.) Even Michael Flynn was pretty hot against Iran. Flynn was also pro-Erdogan.

FOX News Tucker Carlson thinks Trump did not bomb Iran because of America's upcoming Presidential Campaign.



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 8:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:

"I never called the strike against Iran “BACK,” as people are incorrectly reporting, I just stopped it from going forward at this time!" Trump tweeted.

The White House did not immediately return a request for clarification on the president's tweet.



Seems pretty clear to me. What is to clarify?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 8:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:

"I never called the strike against Iran “BACK,” as people are incorrectly reporting, I just stopped it from going forward at this time!" Trump tweeted.

The White House did not immediately return a request for clarification on the president's tweet.



Seems pretty clear to me. What is to clarify?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Apparently, 6ix, you have never pointed a gun at someone who is also armed. It is a very poor strategy to then turn around and walk away. You might be shot in the back. Or not. As Trump would say, "We'll see."

Trump’s Catchphrase: ‘We’ll See’
www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000005877823/trump-catchphrase-we
ll-see.html


Maybe I should clarify: What will Trump do next? Then what after that? Then after that? Quite clearly, Trump has no long range plan. He needs to get one and then let the Iranians know what it is. Him saying "We'll see" will only motivate Iran to build in secret a huge stockpile of nukes as soon as possible. Then Iran will be respected by Trump in the same way as Kim Jong-un of N Korea. Maybe Kim will secretly sell Iran a dozen nukes in exchange for oil? It will be a win-win for Kim and Iran, but not what Trump was expecting and he will only have himself to blame for breaking a treaty with Iran.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 10:22 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Trump was pretty clear when he was campaigning that Iran was the exception to his non-interventionist policy. (Not that Trump has made much success of troop withdrawal and non-intervention anyway.) Even Michael Flynn was pretty hot against Iran. Flynn was also pro-Erdogan.

Russia isn't really keen on a mideast conflagration. I keep reading that Russia and Iran have very different ideas on what they want the Mideast to look like, and Iran has in reality made good progress in completing the Shia Crescent by supporting Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. So there is good reason to try and thwart Iran's ambitions, and the current leaders of Iran may be just Trump-like enough to use "maximum pressure" themselves against Trump. Which, again, makes it all the more strange that Trump backed down.

I think what Russia has proposed to Iran is that they'll get around the sanctions by facilitating Iran's oil trade with Russia and with China, in an oil-for-goods deal that will blunt the sanctions worst effects. I don't know if that's good enough for Iran, or if the Iranian leadership really wants to bloody Trump's nose.




I have yet to hear a single reason for why getting into a war with Iran is a good idea, or necessary. For why? I have not heard a single good idea, not even a bad idea - no motivation for it. Did Bolton have an Iranian neighbor that played their music too loud? "We need the oil." Nothing, not a single reason, not even a decent lie.
Let us know if you have a guess.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 11:33 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Apparently, 6ix, you have never pointed a gun at someone who is also armed.



Nope. Can't say that I have.

Armed or otherwise.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 12:00 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Apparently, 6ix, you have never pointed a gun at someone who is also armed.



Nope. Can't say that I have.

Armed or otherwise.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Back in 1988, Ronald Reagan's Navy killed 290 people on Iran Air Flight 655. The Iranians have not forgotten, even if you and Trump never knew it happened. The Iranians have not forgotten that Trump pulled out of a nuclear treaty with Iran, while all the other countries that signed it did not. Today, Sunday, Trump is talking about some kind of economic deal with Iran. Iran can't trust him to keep his word on that or anything else. They aren't going to turn around for him so that he can shoot them in the back. Trump has managed to make it impossible for American diplomats, or the next President, to negotiate with Iran for many more years. And it is all because Trump hates Obama and the Iran nuclear treaty Obama signed. Trump wants his own version of that treaty, but he is not gonna get it now or ever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework
www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa/iran-warns-of-risk-of-conf
lict-trump-sees-scope-for-deal-idUSKCN1TO0DX


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 12:32 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:


Trump was pretty clear when he was campaigning that Iran was the exception to his non-interventionist policy. (Not that Trump has made much success of troop withdrawal and non-intervention anyway.) Even Michael Flynn was pretty hot against Iran. Flynn was also pro-Erdogan.

Russia isn't really keen on a mideast conflagration. I keep reading that Russia and Iran have very different ideas on what they want the Mideast to look like, and Iran has in reality made good progress in completing the Shia Crescent by supporting Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. So there is good reason to try and thwart Iran's ambitions, and the current leaders of Iran may be just Trump-like enough to use "maximum pressure" themselves against Trump. Which, again, makes it all the more strange that Trump backed down.

I think what Russia has proposed to Iran is that they'll get around the sanctions by facilitating Iran's oil trade with Russia and with China, in an oil-for-goods deal that will blunt the sanctions worst effects. I don't know if that's good enough for Iran, or if the Iranian leadership really wants to bloody Trump's nose.- SIGNY

I have yet to hear a single reason for why getting into a war with Iran is a good idea, or necessary. For why? I have not heard a single good idea, not even a bad idea - no motivation for it. Did Bolton have an Iranian neighbor that played their music too loud? "We need the oil." Nothing, not a single reason, not even a decent lie.
Let us know if you have a guess. - CC



I have a few guesses but I don't know how good they are. But in order to explain them I have to go back to three of our other MENA wars: Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

I don't think there was a single person in the GWB administration (except maybe GWB himself, who was just Cheney's sock puppet) who believed that Saddam had WMD or wanted to topple Saddam because he was a bad man. But clearly, the war was going to be prosecuted no matter how thin the excuses. And idiocy only goes so far in explaining why a whole host within the GWB administration supported this war: TPTB ... not the politicians, the REAL PTB .... have to support it too, or it's going nowhere. So I started looking for a reason WHY the global elite might want that war, and I found one: IF Saddam Hussein was found to be in substantial compliance with the UN's mandate that he destroy his WMD stockpile, THEN sanctions against Iraq would be lifted. ANd that's what Hans Blix's inspection was all about: It wasn't about GWB foaming at the mouth, it was about ending UN sanctions. And making future oil contracts possible because - ironically- Iraq's oil fields had been preserved by decades of sanctions. And there were, in fact, oil contracts with Russia and France that had been written up, and pens were poised to sign them as soon as Blix gave the go-ahead.

And that's why the closer Blix got to the end of his inspections, the more hyped-up the hysteria got: WMD! Mushroom cloud! East, west, north south somewhat of Baghdad! TPTB could not let that inspection be completed! (Don't forget, it was our bombs that drove Hans Blix out of Iraq, not Saddam Hussein.) What the western press didn't tell you was that Iraq's soon-to-be signed contracts with France and Russia meant that Iraq was to be paid in SOMETHING OTHER THAN DOLLARS. In this case, a basket of currencies including the Euro, and gold.

There goes the petrodollar!!

Libya. Obama. Same story. Not a single person in the Obama administration really believed that Moammar Qaddafi was "massacring his own people" and - quite frankly- if he had been they wouldn't have given two shits about it. Moammar had given up nuclear ambitions long before. So why was France, the US, and the UK so hot to trot to take down the Libyan government? Because Libya- the wealthiest nation in Africa, with the highest standard of living and education, where newlyweds got free housing - was about to emark on launching a new currency. Qaddafi had amassed a giant trove of gold, and he was going to launch the gold-backed African dinar, and sell oil for something other than the dollar.

There goes the petrodollar!

Syria. Obama. Again, I doubt that a single person in the administration believed that "Assad gassed his own people". Obama worked very closely with the CIA, and this had "false flag" written all over it. No, the real reason "why" Syria was put in the crosshairs could be summed up in one word: "Pipelineistan". Syria is a necessary part of a pipeline route from Iran to the eastern Mediterranean and from there to southern Europe. And ... the petrodollar suffers again. (BTW, this explains Russia's fierce posssession of the Syrian coast ... Iran has to get thru those lst 20 miles to get to the sea, and they have to go thru Russia to do it. I'm sure there's a bit of arm-twisting going on under the table over this issue.) But if Iran had a clear shot at the Mediterranean coast

There goes the petrodollar!

*****

It seems more than coincidental that the two nations that Trump is SERIOUSLY trying to blockade, disrupt, or overthrow ... whichever can be achieved ... Venezuela and Iran ... are both energy-producing states who would be willing to trade in something other than the dollar. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Iran has substantial amounts of oil ... fields which have been preserved thanks to decdes of sanctions. Iran also has the largest known gas rserves in the world, the Pars gas filed.

Saudi oil fields are heavily degraded, they've been pumping oil for decades and are now using water and fracking techniques to get the dregs out of some of their oil fields (I've heard 95% water in the recovery. If they do what WE do in our old oil fields (like THUMS Islands in San Pedro bay) they separate out the oil from water and send that water back down to wash out more oil. But they've also tried steam, bore-hole heaters, explosives, and even in-situ fires to thin out the oil)

Anyway, the point is that Saudi Arabia needs $80/bbl oil to balance its budget, and Saudi Arabia is THE petrodollar mainstay. And since every nation needs USAto buy oil (so far) that holds up the dollar's value, because it's not "just" a fiat currency, it's backed by oil.

Think of what would happen to all of those banks which hold dollars and Treasuries in reserve ... all of those nations that hold dollars and Treasuries in reserve ... all of those corporations that use dollars for trade ... trillions upon trillions of "wealth" stored up ...

So no matter what the war-mongers in the Trump Administration believe ... Pompous is a come-to-Jesus Armageddonist, Bolt-on is an "American unipolar moment" kinda guy, and Trump himself has had a hardon for Iran - probably because he supports Israel because his son-in-law is a Zionist and his daughter converted to Judaism - well, just like in the GWB administration where there were PNAC zealots and Armageddonists and nut-bgs galore, they weren't the REAL real reasons for the war against Iraq.

The more intersting quesstion is: why DIDN'T we go to war against Iran?



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 12:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Apparently, 6ix, you have never pointed a gun at someone who is also armed.



Nope. Can't say that I have.

Armed or otherwise.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Back in 1988, Ronald Reagan's Navy killed 290 people on Iran Air Flight 655. The Iranians have not forgotten, even if you and Trump never knew it happened. The Iranians have not forgotten that Trump pulled out of a nuclear treaty with Iran, while all the other countries that signed it did not. Today, Sunday, Trump is talking about some kind of economic deal with Iran. Iran can't trust him to keep his word on that or anything else. They aren't going to turn around for him so that he can shoot them in the back. Trump has managed to make it impossible for American diplomats, or the next President, to negotiate with Iran for many more years. And it is all because Trump hates Obama and the Iran nuclear treaty Obama signed. Trump wants his own version of that treaty, but he is not gonna get it now or ever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework
www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa/iran-warns-of-risk-of-conf
lict-trump-sees-scope-for-deal-idUSKCN1TO0DX


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 2:12 PM

JONGSSTRAW


War with Iran, okay, sure. There's not much else on tv worth watching now except for maybe the ladies' FIFA World Cup which has had a few exciting moments, like the O.T. Penalty Kick win for Norway over Australia yesterday.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 2:21 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Iran can't trust him to keep his word on that or anything else. They aren't going to turn around for him so that he can shoot them in the back. Trump has managed to make it impossible for American diplomats, or the next President, to negotiate with Iran for many more years.

Putin had it right when he characterized Trump years ago as "not-agreement-capable".

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 2:37 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
I have always been glad that hubbs left the service before he would've been sent overseas. Didn't stick it out.



I can't believe how much time you wasted on that. WOW, you have NO LIFE beyond your marching orders, huh?

I must have touched a nerve with the "You can't do a damn thing about war and you know it." Really undermines your agenda as fear-mongers, doesn't it??



Take your war crap 'n shove it, it ain't working here no more.





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Sunday, June 23, 2019 2:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Anyway, the point is that Saudi Arabia needs $80/bbl oil to balance its budget, and Saudi Arabia is THE petrodollar mainstay. And since every nation needs USA (dollars) to buy oil (so far), that holds up the dollar's value, because it's not "just" a fiat currency, it's backed by oil.

lightly edited for clarity

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 2:42 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


You can't even quote YOURSELF correctly. How stupid is that?
Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
"You can't do a damn thing about war and you know it."






And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 2:51 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:


When I went to college, local landlords charged EXORBITANT rents because they knew they had a captive market. Which is why there was that truism of college students living in living rooms, porches, and unfinished attics and basements. Do they not do that anymore? There's also that portrayal of starving students eating Raman endlessly. In my day, a crap ton of powdered milk with a little bit of sugar mixed into whole milk was a (fairly) nutritious cheap meal for the whole day. Do students not know how to feed themselves for cheap anymore?





No wonder you're brain damaged, there's more chemicals in those two things than anything else you can eat...

You are actually advocating that teens eat complete crap and couch surf to afford college. There is something wrong with your whole generation that you think your teens and 20's has to be about deprivation at a time when your body is building the cellular functions and reserves for the rest of your adulthood.

Imma LAUGH when you get cancer.


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Sunday, June 23, 2019 2:53 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
You can't even quote YOURSELF correctly. How stupid is that?Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
"You can't do a damn thing about war and you know it."




It wasn't SUPPOSED to be a direct quote, you dumb ass.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 3:24 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Trump says he’s open to Iran talks without preconditions.

What happened?

Two things. First, Iran attacked two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Second, they shot down an American drone. I guess now we know what it takes to get Trump to talk.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-23/trump-says-he-s-prepared-to
-speak-to-iran-with-no-preconditions


Iranian leaders earlier this month rebuffed a similar offer by Pompeo, saying the suggestion amounted to “word play” given the Trump administration’s other actions toward the Islamic Republic, including pulling out of a multilateral nuclear deal.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 3:31 PM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
War with Iran, okay, sure. There's not much else on tv worth watching now except for maybe the ladies' FIFA World Cup which has had a few exciting moments, like the O.T. Penalty Kick win for Norway over Australia yesterday.



That was awesome. People who say penalty shootouts are boring or just luck, have no idea what it would be like to have to take that walk from the midfield to the penalty spot with 750 million plus people watching around the world - not to mention your teammates 50 feet away. You only have to see how Aussie's star player totally choked on her penalty kick attempt to know it's more than luck.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 4:05 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I must have touched a nerve with the "You can't do a damn thing about war and you know it." Really undermines your agenda as fear-mongers, doesn't it??
Take your war crap 'n shove it, it ain't working here no more.

I notice you got all kinds of opinions on OTHER things - which (you say) wouldn't make a a difference, but that doesn't keep you from spouting off anyway ... but somehow coming out and being antiwar kinda sticks in your craw? You must be allergic to antiwar statements or something. Yanno, secretly prowar but too much of a coward to take a position.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 6:14 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
War with Iran, okay, sure. There's not much else on tv worth watching now except for maybe the ladies' FIFA World Cup which has had a few exciting moments, like the O.T. Penalty Kick win for Norway over Australia yesterday.



That was awesome. People who say penalty shootouts are boring or just luck, have no idea what it would be like to have to take that walk from the midfield to the penalty spot with 750 million plus people watching around the world - not to mention your teammates 50 feet away. You only have to see how Aussie's star player totally choked on her penalty kick attempt to know it's more than luck.


Penalty shootouts are awesome. Almost had another one today, but France scored against Brazil in the closing minutes of extra time.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 6:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Trying to wrap my mind around the whole 'petrodollars' thing, because there seem to be several separate points of instability.

Quote:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petrodollars-af
fect-us-dollar.asp


After the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard in the early 1970s, the United States struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to standardize oil prices in dollar terms. Through this deal, the petrodollar system was born, along with a paradigm shift away from pegged exchanged rates and gold-backed currencies to non-backed, floating rate regimes.

Through this framework of economic cooperation and, more importantly, petrodollar recycling, the U.S. managed to influence Saudi Arabia to persuade the other members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to standardize the sale of oil in dollars. In return for invoicing oil in dollar denominations, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states secured U.S. influence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict along with U.S. military assistance during an increasingly worrisome political climate that saw the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the fall of the Iranian Shah and the Iran-Iraq War. Out of this mutually beneficial agreement, the petrodollar system was born.

The petrodollar system elevated the U.S. dollar to the world's reserve currency and, through this status, the United States enjoys persistent trade deficits and is a global economic hegemony. The petrodollar system also provides the United States’ financial markets with a source of liquidity and foreign capital inflows through petrodollar "recycling." However, an explanation of the effects of petrodollars on the U.S. dollar requires a brief synopsis of the history of the petrodollar.


Well, as I puzzle through this - the US needs the petrodollar to keep its dollar value afloat. As long as other countries need US dollars to buy global oil, they will willingly buy US bonds and accept US dollars in exchange for goods. That keeps the dollar at high value.

I think the agreement between the US and SA (with SA bringing OPEC along) all held together as long as SA was a top, cheap producer. SA could use its ability to capture market share, to bludgeon the others into accepting and keeping the petrodollar. The threat of being punished by the SA oil juggernaut kept other OPEC countries from defecting.

"It's a great life if you don't weaken." But the end was foretold in the initial conditions. SA has weakened. Its fields are played out and expensive to extract. Others with newer, more pristine fields can be poised to write their own rules.

So the US has to enforce the petrodollar with its military, by destroying other oil producers' capacity.

That makes sense.

Now, how to write the City of London into this.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 6:42 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
"You can't do a damn thing about war and you know it."

Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
You can't even quote YOURSELF correctly. How stupid is that?

Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
It wasn't SUPPOSED to be a direct quote, you dumb ass.

You mean you can't defend your original argument, so you have to change it? How stupid is that?

BTW, this is your original and very stupid argument for why you don't track a candidate's position on war:
Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
I don't really look at a candidate's ideas about war because **IF** war happens nothing I say or do will matter a damn.

So, you don't care **IF** a candidate wants to start wars? You know, so you can avoid having to mutely endure those wars once they start?

Do you not know what 'planning ahead' means?





And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 9:53 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Yanno, secretly prowar but too much of a coward to take a position.







WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU AND THE PEOPLE YOU KNOW THAT YOU KNOW PEOPLE WHO ARE "PRO-WAR"?????

Seriously, even the nuttiest gun nuts here wouldn't be pro-war unless we were the victims of a large scale attack FIRST. Americans are inherently narcissists, most other countries don't even fucking REGISTER on their tiny little brainz.

15+ years this place has been here and you still don't have a single iota how people ACTUALLY work. We can't take care of the people and infrastructure WE HAVE, we definitely aren't starting wars for expansion purposes and even the dumbest here know you go starting something with someone you pay the price with a generation of kids...

You are just a nutjob. Nothing you have ever said makes a whiff of goddamned sense.




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Sunday, June 23, 2019 10:07 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
You mean you can't defend your original argument, so you have to change it? How stupid is that?

Do you not know what 'planning ahead' means?




I boiled my position down so that even YOU could get it. *Facepalm. Well, I was proven wrong about something today...

You idiots keep thinking you can avoid wars based on candidates positions in PEACETIME??? How stupid do you have to be to not understand that people's reactions to aggressors are incalculable????

NO ONE knows how they will react to ANYTHING, let alone large scale violence and terrorism.

There is not a single candidate who would NOT recommend retaliatory action. Even if they SAY they probably wouldn't- THEY PROBABLY WOULD....Because....PEOPLE.

You two are just pointless harpies, emotionally masturbating to the word WAR so you can feel important.


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Sunday, June 23, 2019 10:16 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
we definitely aren't starting wars

What do you call Afghanistan, a place that had nothing to do with 9/11? What do you call Iraq, a place that didn't pose a threat to us at all, let alone attack us 'first'. What do you call Libya? Or Syria?

We don't start wars?

I'll make a deal with you - if you stop posting really stupid things, I'll stop pointing out how stupid you are.




And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

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Sunday, June 23, 2019 10:19 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
I boiled my position down so that even YOU could get it.

No, you CHANGED your position because your original one was so stupid even you couldn't defend it. Here it is, again, to refresh your memory.
Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
I don't really look at a candidate's ideas about war because **IF** war happens nothing I say or do will matter a damn.

And you have yet to either defend or explain yourself about THAT statement.

So, you don't care **IF** a candidate wants to start wars? You know, so you can avoid having to mutely endure those wars once they start?

Do you not know what 'planning ahead' means?





And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac



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Monday, June 24, 2019 3:31 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I boiled my position down so that even YOU could get it.
Hmm... maybe your "position" is so stupid NOBODY "gets it".

Quote:

You idiots keep thinking you can avoid wars based on candidates positions in PEACETIME???
Wait! Wha..?
You think we're in PEACETIME?? Jimminy crimminy, TWIITCHY, how stupid do YOU have to be not to notice the multiple wars THAT WE STARTED and which are STILL CONTINUING TODAY.

Quote:

How stupid do you have to be to not understand that people's reactions to aggressors are incalculable????
Wait! Wha..???
You think we're reacting for aggressors??? How stupid do YOU have to be not to notice that NONE of the wars had anything to do with aggression against the USA? Au contraire my stupid friend! ALL of our wars were pre-planned BY US. Didn't you notice the propaganda campaigns, helpfully planted by the deep state months ahead of time to get idiots like you "on side" BEFORE the invasion?

Jezus Christos. You live in upside-down world, where aggressors are victims and victims are aggressors. No wonder you're so confused!

Quote:

NO ONE knows how they will react to ANYTHING, let alone large scale violence and terrorism.
Jeez, TWITCHY. When was the last large-scale violence and terrorism committed against the USA? 18 years ago? And you think we're still destroying nations around the world because THAT'S the problem? I guess youn really DO live with your head up your butt!

Quote:

There is not a single candidate who would NOT recommend retaliatory action. Even if they SAY they probably wouldn't- THEY PROBABLY WOULD....Because....PEOPLE.
Well, you see TWItCHY, there is YOUR problem: You see attacks when none exist.

Quote:

You two are just pointless harpies, emotionally masturbating to the word WAR so you can feel important.
Huh. Says the person who attacks people for no reason whatsoever.

TWITCHY, you're damaged goods. I suggest that you get some counseling and take care of that emotional problem because it's ruining your life, and your intellect.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Monday, June 24, 2019 2:14 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:

What do you call Afghanistan, a place that had nothing to do with 9/11? What do you call Iraq, a place that didn't pose a threat to us at all, let alone attack us 'first'. What do you call Libya? Or Syria?






Thank you for making my point AGAIN. We the people didn't do those, politicians did. Many of them...And you CAN'T KNOW OR DO ANYTHING ABOUT THEIR CHOICES...and they may have reasons and intel we don't know and probably won't. Either way, NOTHING YOU DO WILL CHANGE THAT.

Especially blabbing about it constantly in a dead fansite. I mean, that'll show 'em


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Monday, June 24, 2019 2:24 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:


You idiots keep thinking you can avoid wars based on candidates positions in PEACETIME??? Wait! Wha..?



Oh, sure... we're technically "at war" but it's mainly so we can keep surveillance on people who need to be surveilled. You all act like the Middle East is just misunderstood peaceful folk. Got yer heads up yer asses much?

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Monday, June 24, 2019 2:36 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So, are you now disavowing your claim that ...
Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
we definitely aren't starting wars

?




And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac


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Monday, June 24, 2019 8:19 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Trump was pretty clear when he was campaigning that Iran was the exception to his non-interventionist policy. (Not that Trump has made much success of troop withdrawal and non-intervention anyway.) Even Michael Flynn was pretty hot against Iran. Flynn was also pro-Erdogan.

Russia isn't really keen on a mideast conflagration. I keep reading that Russia and Iran have very different ideas on what they want the Mideast to look like, and Iran has in reality made good progress in completing the Shia Crescent by supporting Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. So there is good reason to try and thwart Iran's ambitions, and the current leaders of Iran may be just Trump-like enough to use "maximum pressure" themselves against Trump. Which, again, makes it all the more strange that Trump backed down.

I think what Russia has proposed to Iran is that they'll get around the sanctions by facilitating Iran's oil trade with Russia and with China, in an oil-for-goods deal that will blunt the sanctions worst effects. I don't know if that's good enough for Iran, or if the Iranian leadership really wants to bloody Trump's nose.

I have yet to hear a single reason for why getting into a war with Iran is a good idea, or necessary. For why? I have not heard a single good idea, not even a bad idea - no motivation for it. Did Bolton have an Iranian neighbor that played their music too loud? "We need the oil." Nothing, not a single reason, not even a decent lie.
Let us know if you have a guess.

This is a pretty good question. And it's been on the tip of my tongue for a while now. Not because I didn't think of a reason, but because I haven't heard my reason stated out loud - and for that reason I somewhat dismissed the question.

As I understand it, USA does not need the oil anymore, right? US is a petroleum supplier, right? We produce more petroleum than we consume, and we export the rest. Please correct me if I am incorrect here.

WE are no longer making any effort to solve middle East conflicts, to spur Middle East Peace, right? Although Bush 41 & 43 made inroads and progress, Obama and Clinton managed to destroy all progress, and instigate/support Terrorists, such that we cannot hope to do much until some settling and stability occur, correct? So our goals with Iran are not exactly about bringing incipient Middle East Peace.

Which brings us to the instability that the Terrorist Nation of Iran brings to the region. What other force in the region is more destabilizing than Iran?

I'm not thinking of another reason to be dealing with Iran at this point, other than to correct the disaster that Obama and Hilliary caused with Iran.

But because I have not heard much about this voiced or written by the Administration, I cannot know if they have the same viewpoint, or a similar or opposing one.

At this point, I am sidestepping the petrodollar argument, to see if there is at least a pretext of a reason, depending upon your level of cynicism.

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Monday, June 24, 2019 8:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Second. You are rich. YOU are the enemy of the people.

You had better start building that panic room and digging that moat for your castle.

Things aren't getting any better and there are no indicators that show the only way for everybody to go is down.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I am opposed to Trump's Iran War schemes because he is cowardly, ridiculous, and dithering.

6ix, I know all about the poor getting poorer and the Trumps getting richer, and I oppose everything Trump and the GOP are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_inequality_in_the_United_States

Quote:


Looks like these charts show how Clinton & Obamination were all about the poor getting poorer and the rich getting richer.
I'll refer to these graphs using this number Legend:
1 2
3 4

Graph 1 shows that from 1992 to 2001, Slick Willie was able to invert the relationship of the poor (taking away) and rich (giving to). Graphs 2, 3, and 4 further show how Slick really shafted the middle and lower classes.

They all show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps stuck it to the Rich for a bit, Obama went to work getting it all back to the rich, and more = while taking from the poor and middle class.

The Bush 43 period shows in all 4 graphs that the poor did not suffer nearly as much as when they get shafted by Slick and Obamination.


But graphs 1 and 2 help illuminate an interesting perspective on history. Back around 1980, with the disastrous Carter economy, runaway inflation and unemployment, it would have been a neat solution to trick the wealthy into investing into working ventures to spur the economy. If only they could be tricked!! Sure, they would need to pay more in Taxes, but they could reap some more income as well.
These 2 chart do demonstrate that this was indeed the trick that was employed. If folk from 1980 could have known they could pull this trick and spur the juggernaut of economic expansion (now called Reaganomics), they would have jumped at the chance! It is just a trick!

But now, in retrospect, the Libtards and malcontents look back at this cool trick to turn the country around, and they only see bad things.
Amazing, how deluded the Libtard masses can be.


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Monday, June 24, 2019 8:53 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
College in America for a majority of the kids who go there is just a way to enslave them to the system for the rest of their lives.

Funny how college debt is one of the few debts that don't get erased in a bankruptcy, innit?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I for one am glad I went to college. But my degree(s) were in something useful which got me a good job, and I lived like a pauper rather than take on debt.

I've read that roughly a third of college students are food and housing insecure.

When I went to college, local landlords charged EXORBITANT rents because they knew they had a captive market. Which is why there was that truism of college students living in living rooms, porches, and unfinished attics and basements. Do they not do that anymore? There's also that portrayal of starving students eating Raman endlessly. In my day, a crap ton of powdered milk with a little bit of sugar mixed into whole milk was a (fairly) nutritious cheap meal for the whole day. Do students not know how to feed themselves for cheap anymore?

I'd very much like to look into the nit-picky specific details of student poverty today, and student debt today. I wonder how much is due to assumptions being made about luxuries being treated as necessities. Because people I've seen who go to college seem to expect a lifestyle that includes single-bedroom apartments, nice cars, I-phones, and a good supply of new clothes.

Because that is the way it is portrayed on TV, by actors who dropped out of high school.
You cannot really expect the kids of today to know how to feed themselves, can you? Where do you think is the app for that? I'm not even sure the kids of helicopter parents had a clue how to live in the real world.

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Monday, June 24, 2019 8:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
I have always been glad that hubbs left the service before he would've been sent overseas.

Didn't stick it out.
Quote:

He tried to go for a degree in Criminal Justice and hated it
It was too hard.
Quote:

and there was some weird snafu with paperwork
He got disorganized and confused.
Quote:

so he ended up going for a tech degree.
He spent money on something he didn't pursue.
Quote:

I think he would have washed out of police work after a while
They would have kicked him out.
Quote:

He wanted to drive trains, but you don't make enough to support a family on that here, and with the "sitting down narcolepsy" ( can no longer drive for more than an hour at a time without passing out) he has we are ALL much better off that he didn't...
They might not have accepted him.

Quote:

I wanted to be a surgical tech
I never even tried because I was too much of a slacker and probably would have failed..
Quote:

That, and the focusing that hard for hours on end. I could have in high school, but these days I drift too much...
Because I have no discipline.
Quote:

I'm really glad that I didn't go for college
I probably would have failed.
Quote:

and change careers three times like the rest of my family...
I have no career at all. Or even a job.
Quote:

that are in debt up to their eyeballs and will be until the day they die...
As are we, but at least I don't have a job to go with the debt.
Quote:

Nice how you really have no control how your life ends up where it does, isn't it?
Yes, that's how I explain to myself how I ended up here.

And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

Fired For Effect. All on target.

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Monday, June 24, 2019 10:48 PM

WISHIMAY


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Fired For Effect. All on target.



I can't imagine you were ever ACTUALLY in the military...You are a fucking coward.
Don't mind coming in and reposting other people's shit because you are too stupid to come up with anything on your own.

You would have been shot by your own platoon


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Monday, June 24, 2019 11:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Thankfully, the military does psych evaluations to keep people like Nilbog out of it so you're not concerned about friendly fire for saying something that hurt somebodies feels.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, June 25, 2019 11:02 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

https://www.facebook.com/NationandStatedotcom/posts/2390674057645599 (original source - multiple websites reprinted the article)

As We Face Armageddon, Paul Craig Roberts Warns The Western World Is Leaderless

According to news reports, the validity of which cannot be ascertained by the general public, a crazed US government came within 10 minutes of igniting a general conflagration in the Middle East, the consequences of which could have been catastrophic for all.

The moronic warmongers in high office - Bolton, Pompeo, and Pence - and their Israel Lobby masters are determined, and they have not abandoned their campaign for war with Iran.

The upcoming war on Iran has got to be one of the world's worst-kept secrets. It's publicly been on Bolton's, Pompeo's, and Pence's - AND Trump's - agenda for years, in some cases decades.
Quote:

Of course, the liars say that Iran will just accept its punishment for defending its territory and there will be no war. But this is not what Iran says. I believe Iran.

Some of the tiny percentage of people in the Western World who are still capable of thought regret that Trump called off the insane plan. They think the consequences would have been the destruction of the Saudi and Israeli governments—two of the most evil in history—and the cut-off of oil to the US and Europe, with the resulting depression causing the overthrow of the Western warmonger governments. They believe that catastrophic American defeat is the only way peace can be restored to the world.

In other words, it is not clear whether Trump calling off the attack saved us or doomed us. The Israel Lobby and their neoconservative agents have not been taught a lesson. Trump has not fired Bolton and Pompeo for almost igniting a conflagration, and he has not dressed down his moronic vice president. So, it can all happen again.

And likely will. The lesson that Bolton and Israel have learned is that the fake news about an Iranian attack on a Japanese freighter, denied by the Japanese ...

How many people here know that the captain of the Japanese oil tanker said it was a drone attack, and was not a mine?
Quote:

... was not sufficient to lock Trump into “saving face” by attacking Iran. So be prepared for a larger orchestrated provocation. Bolton and Israel know that the Western presstitutes will lie for them. Watch for a provocation that allows Trump no alternative to an attack.

Washington’s use of fake news and false flag attacks to launch military attacks goes back a long way.

Or even not so far back.
Quote:

In the 21st century we have had a concentrated dose — Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, Assad’s use of chemical weapons, Iranian nukes, Russian invasions, Maduro starving his own people, the endless lies about Gaddafi. Yes, I know there are more. I am writing an article, not an encyclopedia.

Washington has grown accustomed to attacking countries on false pretenses and getting away with it.

Starting with Kosovo BTW.
Quote:

Therefore, there is nothing to discourage the Israel Lobby and its Washington puppets from continuing to set-up Iran for an attack. Success breeds incaution. The attack on Iraq was stage-managed by a credible US Secretary of State before the UN. The attack on Libya was stage-managed by a UN resolution that a deceived Russia and China failed to block. In situations such as these, Washington arranged a green light for its war crimes. However, Washington has failed to stage-manage a green light for an attack on Iran.
The Europeans have gotten wary of US 'intelligence' claims. I'd say "it's about time", but they can scrape up enough belief if it suits their purposes.
Quote:

Moreover, Iran is a more powerful military force than Iraq and Libya, and the extent of the depth of Russian and Chinese support for Iran is unknown to Washington.

If Israel succeeds in having its Washington puppet attack Iran, Israel and its neoconservative agents will not welcome failure of their objective. They will fight against failure with more dangerous moves. I can easily imagine the fanatics having Trump “save face” by destroying the world and issuing some kind of ultimatums to Russia and China or resorting to the use of nuclear weapons against Iran.

They're already on record as supporting 'limited' nuclear war. I wonder why they think 'limited' nuclear war is a one-side option?
Quote:

The insouciant American - indeed, Western - people are kept unaware by design. It is the function of the presstitutes to control the explanations given to the people.
Our news is a stage-managed puppet show.
Quote:

The US Congress is bought and paid for by the Israel Lobby, as are most important politicians in the UK and Europe. What I am telling you is that it is very easy for fanatics to produce Armageddon.
And the 'liberals' here eat it up.
Quote:

Stephen Cohen and I, and a few surviving others, lived through the 20th century Cold War. In recent years we both have reported on numerous occasions that the threat of nuclear war today is far higher than during the Cold War. One reason is that during the Cold War US and Soviet leaders worked to defuse tensions and to build trust. In contrast, since the Clinton regime the US has worked consistently to build tensions. Both Cohen and I have listed on many occasions the tension-building activities pursued by all post-Reagan/George H.W. Bush administrations.

The Russians no longer trust Washington, and neither do the Chinese.

I don't blame them. But we'll see how far the Chinese will take their mistrust in the G20 meeting.
Quote:

Washington has lied to, and about, Russia so often in the 21st century that Russian trust of Washington is exhausted. No matter how earnestly the Russian government wants to trust Washington, it dare not do so.

Therefore, it takes very little miscalculation for the morons in Washington to cause a threat-ending response from Russia as Washington has convinced the Russian government that the US intends to destroy them.

The orchestration of Russiagate by the Democratic Party, military/security complex, and their media whores has, as Stephen Cohen has emphasized, forced President Trump in an act of self-preservation to adopt the neoconservative attitude toward Russia and other “non-compliant” governments. This attitude is dangerous enough in the best of times. It is extremely dangerous after trust has been destroyed by YEARS of lies and false accusations.

Perhaps there is someone in the Trump administration who has the intelligence to understand the dangerous situation and who has Trump’s confidence. But I do not know who that person is.

We have to face the fact that as we face Armageddon the Western World is leaderless.

While I don't endorse every single claim in the article, I do believe that the US has miscalculated its way into creating a hair-trigger set of circumstances.

So let me repeat this once again - I have 2 priorities for the upcoming election: 1) finding who is least likely to blow us up in the very near-term, and 2) finding someone who thinks global warming is an urgent threat.





And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

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Tuesday, June 25, 2019 8:53 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Fired For Effect. All on target.

I can't imagine you were ever ACTUALLY in the military...You are a fucking coward.
Don't mind coming in and reposting other people's shit because you are too stupid to come up with anything on your own.
You would have been shot by your own platoon

I seriously doubt that anybody in your pretend military family has any clue what that term even means.

Plus, you have certainly confused "cowardice" with dreadful discourse with the Waste of Time Misery Queen of Nilbog.

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Friday, June 28, 2019 7:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


President Donald Trump arrived at a gathering of world leaders Thursday searching for support for a new deal to curtail an increasingly aggressive Iran. He’s not likely to find any.

Not only do other countries still support a 2015 nuclear pact, they’re skeptical Trump can strike a better agreement within the time constraints of his fast-approaching reelection campaign, especially after Iran recently proclaimed the end of diplomacy with the U.S.

“I think they want to negotiate,” Trump said on “Meet the Press” Sunday. “And I think they want to make a deal. And my deal is nuclear.”

The subtle shift in his language has stunned analysts and former officials, who say he’s signaling that he wants a deal that closely mirrors the 2015 agreement he spent years attacking. He also said this week that he would negotiate with Iran with no preconditions.

Trump’s recent rhetoric stands in contrast to his more hawkish aides, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton, who continue to focus on a list of 12 far-reaching demands for Iran that address nuclear weapons but also ballistic missiles and terrorism. Critics have said that Iran would have to change regimes to meet the demands.

Tom Bossert, who served as Trump’s homeland security adviser until last year, said sanctions are the president’s tool of choice. But, he noted, Trump’s Iranian sanctions are intended to convey the message that he wants to talk — even if no one else does. “He’s imposing sanctions for a broader purpose,” Bossert said.

So far, though, it hasn’t achieved that purpose. And critics fear it could mean war, even if it’s inadvertent.

www.politico.com/story/2019/06/27/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-1385148

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, June 28, 2019 10:10 AM

JONGSSTRAW


Compared to Bronk O'Bama, Trump's handling of Iran is magnificent.

a) O'Bama lifted the sanctions that were effectively isolating and strangling Iran.

b) O'Bama sent a ship with $150 Billion in cash loaded on pallets to them.

c} O'Bama sent weak-ass Ketchup-heiress gigolo John Kerry to negotiate for him.

d) O'Bama tried to keep the details of his disastrous Iran deal a secret.


In contrast to all of the above, Trump has been transparent about his strategy. He put the sanctions back on Iran. He hasn't given them one damn penny. And he's made it clear that although he doesn't want armed conflict, he's willing to do just that if necessary. That's what a President should do... be a strong leader. What O'Bama did was typical libtard limp-wristed appeasement.

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Friday, June 28, 2019 12:56 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:

b) O'Bama sent a ship with $150 Billion in cash loaded on pallets to them.

In contrast to all of the above, Trump has been transparent about his strategy. He put the sanctions back on Iran. He hasn't given them one damn penny. And he's made it clear that although he doesn't want armed conflict, he's willing to do just that if necessary. That's what a President should do... be a strong leader. What O'Bama did was typical libtard limp-wristed appeasement.

Trump pulled those numbers out of his fat ass. Obama Didn’t Give Iran ‘150 Billion in Cash’. For one, it was Iran's money that the USA was trying to steal from Iran. And for another, it was $50 billion in electronic depots, not $150 billion cash. And for a third, it wasn't even money electronically deposited in the US Treasury. The US had been threatening revenge against banks (both foreign and domestic) if they gave Iran's money back to Iran. Some of Iran's money had been stolen by the Shah of Iran, America's puppet Iranian dictator, from his own nation by depositing it in foreign banks. Some of the money had been stolen by the US government when it didn't deliver equipment that had already been paid for by Iran, back when the Shah of Iran was alive. Too, too bad for the Shah that he didn't get to spend what he stole before he died of cancer, but that was only because the Shah's diagnosis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia would not be revealed to him until 1978. Medical reports given to the Shah were falsified and altered in order to state that the Shah was in good health to conceal his cancer from him.

www.factcheck.org/2019/03/obama-didnt-give-iran-150-billion-in-cash/
www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/apr/27/donald-trump/d
onald-trump-iran-150-billion-and-18-billion-c
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, June 28, 2019 4:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
Compared to Bronk O'Bama, Trump's handling of Iran is magnificent.

a) O'Bama lifted the sanctions that were effectively isolating and strangling Iran.

b) O'Bama sent a ship with $150 Billion in cash loaded on pallets to them.

I believe that was a plane, not ship.
Quote:

c} O'Bama sent weak-ass Ketchup-heiress gigolo John Kerry to negotiate for him.
Secretary Swiftboat Ketchup - how could Iran keep from giggling at him?
Quote:

d) O'Bama tried to keep the details of his disastrous Iran deal a secret.


In contrast to all of the above, Trump has been transparent about his strategy. He put the sanctions back on Iran. He hasn't given them one damn penny. And he's made it clear that although he doesn't want armed conflict, he's willing to do just that if necessary. That's what a President should do... be a strong leader. What O'Bama did was typical libtard limp-wristed appeasement.


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Friday, June 28, 2019 6:55 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


An amendment requiring President Donald Trump to get congressional approval before launching military strikes against Iran needed 60 votes. The measure is a top priority and serious issue for Democrats who pressed GOP leaders to schedule the vote.

At 5:00 a.m. Friday, with the moon still beaming over Washington, the Capitol buzzed with activity.

Democrats got 50 votes for their amendment, but it needed 60 to pass. Forty Republicans voted no. Ten had already flown home for the 4th of July Holiday.

www.cnn.com/2019/06/28/politics/iran-amendment-senate-republicans/inde
x.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, June 29, 2019 7:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Iranian leaders shun Trump's ‘chalice of poison’

There’s a painful remembrance in Iran about how broken it felt in 1988, when pressured to end the Iran-Iraq war. This time, is President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran enough to make the Islamic Republic cry uncle?

Probably not, to judge by the Iran-Iraq war, the most significant climb-down that Tehran has conceded since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

It was the spring of 1988, and after eight years of ferocious fighting, Iranian troops had reversed Iraq’s invasion and pushed deep into Iraqi territory. Saddam Hussein – supported by the U.S., Soviet Union, and European nations – unleashed one of the war’s heaviest chemical weapon attacks and threatened to gas Iranian cities if Iran did not agree to a cease-fire.

The Iranian military had lost some 60% of its hardware and could barely find new recruits, and the nation’s economy had shriveled. When the United States inadvertently shot down an Iranian airliner over the Persian Gulf, killing all 290 passengers, Tehran took it as a sign that the Americans were willing to do anything to defeat the Islamic Republic.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini finally gave in, shocking Iranians as he said, “I drink this chalice of poison.” The human toll had been unprecedented in modern conflict, with 1 million dead and wounded on both sides, in a war that hadn’t even changed the border, just soaked it in blood.

“The television was showing our soldiers and he kept hitting himself with his fists saying ‘aah,’” Mr. Khomeini’s eldest son later recalled of his father’s reaction. “After accepting the cease-fire, he could no longer walk. ... He never again spoke in public.”

Legacy of language

Ever since, in Iran, “drinking from the chalice of poison” has been a metaphor for caving in under pressure – the sort of pressure that Tehran feels today from the Trump administration.

Iranian officials are loath to be seen surrendering under such conditions; they vow to resist U.S. demands; and they swear, as Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently declared – that “as long as the U.S. is what it is today, dialogue will be poison, and with this administration the poison will be even twice as deadly.”

More at www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2019/0628/Iranian-leaders-shun-cha
lice-of-poison


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, July 12, 2019 7:07 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


HOUSE SAYS TRUMP CAN’T GO TO WAR WITH IRAN UNLESS CONGRESS APPROVES

Democrats in the House of Representatives on Friday passed an amendment that would sharply restrict President Donald Trump’s ability to attack Iran without congressional authorization, attaching the language to an annual must-pass defense bill.

The measure, which was sponsored by California Democrat Ro Khanna and Florida Republican Matthew Gaetz, would prohibit the Pentagon from spending money on any military action against Iran unless Congress has declared war or passed a resolution authorizing the administration to use force. The bill contains an exception for emergency situations in which U.S. armed forces are under attack.

The measure is likely to face resistance from Senate Republicans, who are expected to fight to strip it out when the House and Senate versions of the bill are reconciled. A similar measure introduced by Democratic Sens. Tom Udall of New Mexico and Virginia’s Tim Kaine and Republicans Mike Lee of Utah and Rand Paul of Kentucky failed to pass the Senate last month despite garnering 50 votes in favor and only 40 against. Due to parliamentary maneuvering by Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, it needed 60 votes to pass.

https://theintercept.com/2019/07/12/trump-iran-vote-congress/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, September 17, 2019 11:22 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Here is an exceptionally good article about the attack on the Saudi's main crude stabilization facility, I especially appreciated the detailed photos. You will have to go the article itself to get higher resolution.





Saturday's attack on the Saudi oil and gas processing station in Abqaiq hit its stabilization facility:

Quote:

The stabilization process is a form of partial distillation which sweetens "sour" crude oil (removes the hydrogen sulfide) and reduces vapor pressure, thereby making the crude oil safe for shipment in tankers. Stabilizers maximize production of valuable hydrocarbon liquids, while making the liquids safe for storage and transport, as well as reduce the atmospheric emissions of volatile hydrocarbons. Stabilizer plants are used to reduce the volatility of stored crude oil and condensate.

Soon after the attack U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went into full 'blame Iran' mode:

Secretary Pompeo @SecPompeo - 21:59 UTC · Sep 14, 2019
Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.
We call on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran’s attacks. The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression

Abqaiq lies at the heart of the Saudi oil infrastructure. It processes more than half of the Saudi oil output.

bigger

The U.S. government published two detailed pictures of the attack's result.

bigger

bigger

The pictures show some 17 points of impact. There are cars visible in the second more detailed picture that demonstrate the gigantic size of the place. The targets were carefully selected. At least 11 of those were egg shaped tanks with a diameter of some 30 meter (100 foot). These are likely tanks for pressurized (liquidized) gas that receive the condensate vapor from the stabilization process. They all have now quite neat holes in their upper shells.

The piping to and from the egg shaped tanks shows that these were configured in groups with double redundancy. Two tanks beside each other share one piping system. Two of such twin tanks are next to each other with lines to their processing train. There are a total of three such groups. Damage to any one tank or group would not stop the production process. The products would be routed to another similar tank or group. But with all tanks of this one special type taken out the production chain is now interrupted.

Two processing areas were hit and show fire damage. At least the control equipment of both was likely completely destroyed:

Consultancy Rapidan Energy Group said images of the Abqaiq facility after the attack showed about five of its stabilization towers appeared to have been destroyed, and would take months to rebuild - something that could curtail output for a prolonged period.

“However Saudi Aramco keeps some redundancy in the system to maintain production during maintenance,” Rapidan added, meaning operations could return to pre-attack levels sooner.

The targeting for this attack was done with detailed knowledge of the process and its dependencies.

The north arrow in those pictures points to the left. The visible shadows confirm the direction. The holes in the tanks are on the western side. They were attacked from the west.

The hits were extremely precise. The Yemeni armed forces claimed it attacked the facility with 10 drones (or cruise missiles). But the hits on these targets look like neither. A total of 17 hits with such precise targeting lets me assume that these were some kind of drones or missiles with man-in-the-loop control. They may have been launched from within Saudi Arabia.

There is no information yet on the damage in Khurais, the second target of the attacks.

The U.S. and Israel are able to commit such attacks. Iran probably too. Yemen seems unlikely to have this capability without drawing on extensive support from elsewhere. The planing for this operation must have taken months.

A Middle-East BBC producer remarks:

Riam Dalati @Dalatrm - 22:44 UTC · Sep 15, 2019
17 points of impact. No Drones or missiles were detected/intercepted. Saudis & Americans still at loss as to where the attack was launched from. #KSA seriously needs to shop elsewhere & replace the Patriot or reinforce it with a web of radar operated AA guns like the Oerlikon.
A source familiar with #Aramco situation told us earlier today that it was a “swarm attack”, a mix of > 20 drones and missiles, at least half of which were "suicide" drones. #USA & #KSA, he said, are 'certain' that attack was launched from #Iraq but 'smoking gun still missing'
They are also 'fairly certain' that #IRGC was behind the operation because, even though the missiles used were identical to those of the #Houthis, an inspection of the debris found in the desert revealed a 'couple of new updates' and a 'distinctly better craftsmanship'

The Wall Street Journal reports of the damage:

The strikes knocked out 5.7 million barrels of daily production, and the officials said they still believe they can fully replace it in coming days. That would require tapping oil inventories and using other facilities to process crude. One of the main targets of the attack was a large crude-processing plant in Abqaiq.
...
“It is definitely worse than what we expected in the early hours after the attack, but we are making sure that the market won’t experience any shortages until we’re fully back online,” said a Saudi official.
...
Even if Saudi officials were successful in restoring all or most of the lost production, the attack demonstrates a new vulnerability to supply lines across the oil-rich Gulf.

Tankers have been paying sharply higher insurance premiums, while shipping rates have soared in the region after a series of maritime attacks on oil-laden vessels, which the U.S. has blamed on Iran.
...
Khurais produces about 1.5 million barrels a day and Abqaiq, the world’s biggest crude-stabilization facility, processes seven million barrels of Saudi oil a day, turning crude into specific grades, such as Arabian Extra Light.

The repairs at Abqaiq will likely take weeks, not days. Brent crude futures rose by 19.5 percent to $71.95 per barrel, the biggest jump since 14 January, 1991:

Aramco gave no timeline for output resumption. A source close to the matter told Reuters the return to full oil capacity could take “weeks, not days”.

Riyadh said it would compensate for the damage at its facilities by drawing on its stocks, which stood at 188 million barrels in June, according to official data.

U.S. President Donald Trump was way more careful in attributing the strike than his Secretary of State.

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump - 0:50 UTC · Sep 16, 2019
Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

Any direct attack on Iran would result in swarms of missiles hitting U.S. military installations in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Saudi water desalination plants, refineries and ports would also be targets.

It is doubtful that Trump or the Saudis are ready to risk such a response.

The attack on Abqaiq was not the last one and all Saudi installations are extremely vulnerable:

Yemen’s Houthi rebels said oil installations in Saudi Arabia remain among their targets after attacks against two major sites slashed the kingdom’s output by half and triggered a surge in crude prices.

The Iranian-backed rebel group, cited by the Houthi’s television station, said its weapons can reach anywhere in Saudi Arabia. Saturday’s attacks were carried out by “planes” using new engines, the group said, likely referring to drones.

Middle East Eye, a Qatari financed outlet, reported yesterday that the attack was launched from Iraq by Iran aligned forces in revenge for Israeli attacks in Syria. The author, David Hearst, is known for slandered reporting. The report is based on a single anonymous Iraqi intelligence source. Qatar, which is struggling with Saudi Arabia and the UAE over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood, would like to see a larger conflict involving its rivals east and west of the Persian Gulf. The report should therefore be disregarded.

Saudi Arabia has no defenses against this kind of attacks. The U.S. has no system that could be used for that purpose. Russia is the only country that can provide the necessary equipment. It would be extremely costly, and still insufficient, to protect all of the Saudi's vital facilities from similar swarm attacks.

Attacks of this kind will only end when Saudi Arabia makes peace with Yemen and when the U.S. ends its sanctions of oil exports from Iran. As Iran's President Rouhani said:

“If one day they want to prevent the export of Iran’s oil, then no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf”

It is high time for hawks like Pompeo to recognize that Iran means what it says and has the tools to fulfill that promise.


https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/damage-at-saudi-oil-plant-points
-to-well-targeted-swarm-attack.html#more


An interesting comment on the damage shown by the photos

Quote:

No where near an expert, but taking a look on Google Maps, the orientation of the holes on the tanks looks like an attack from the wrong side (ie it looks more likely it came from inside Saudi Arabia). A drone attack from the Iraq or Bahrain side would have travelled further and hit on the other side.

Given the level of precision, I wonder if the attack was launched much more locally - some short distance home-made drone that would fly over the fence with a maximum distance of about a mile from waste land outside the plant. The specific targeting on focused targets instead of indiscriminate scattered destruction would also suggest someone familiar with the plant, and a shorter distance attack flown by hand from nearby would require much less sophisticated equipment.

The photos of the plumes of smoke are also confusing. One is from somewhere outside the plant. And a second at the Haradh gas plant that is appearing in the media, is some 140 miles away from Abqaiq.









-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

You idiots have been oppressing the entire sexual spectrum as long as you have existed. I can't wait for the day your kind is dead - WISHIMAY

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Tuesday, September 17, 2019 11:40 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, given the number of "false flags" the USA has initiated or taken advantage of, when things like this happen I have to ask cui bono?

Probably not the Saudis, because altho oil prices have jumped, they can't take advantage of that. But any other oil-producing nation would, especially if they produced EXPENSIVE oil. That would be fracked oil (USA) and tar sands (Canada). But would also include UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Russia, Venezuela, Brazil and Iran.

Of course "Bibi" Netanyahu would benefit, as do war hawks in the USA. It seems like every time peace threatens to break out anywhere, "something" happens. (Trump was to meet with Rouhani at the UN)

Do the Houthis benefit? Probably, but it's hard to see how, since they were winning ayway (The Saudi's main partner UAE has diverged from Saudi strategy and is now fighting Saudi-backed forces) and rather than driving KSA to the bargaining table it may simply cause further reaction. OTOH if it looked like Iran was about to make peace without taking Yemen into account, the Houthis might have wanted to derail any potential peace process.Apparently I'm not the only one wondering about this


Quote:

Questions, Not Answers, Surround U.S. Push To War With Iran
Authored by Tom Luongo [NOT TYLER DURDEN],

When President Trump fired National Security Adviser John Bolton last week rational people the world over cheered.

When there was news that Trump would meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in a few weeks there were sighs of relief.

When Benjamin Netanyahu goes to Moscow to get Vladimir Putin’s blessing to continue airstrikes in Syria was told no, the world said, “Finally! Enough is enough.”

The problem is that there were also very powerful people who were not happy about these things.

Moreover, there are a lot of nervous people out there worried that Tuesday’s election in Israel will not go the way they want it.

A lot of people have invested a lot of time and money in ensuring Netanyahu stays in power. And I don’t just mean Bibi himself, who will likely go to jail on corruption charges if he doesn’t win.

I mean a lot of people in the U.S., Saudi Arabia, the U.K. and in Europe, all of the places where anti-Russian, anti-Iranian and pro-Israeli sentiments abound.

And this brings up the main question I always have in the wake of one of these major escalations of tensions with the country currently catching the Twin Eyes of Sauron in D.C. and Tel Aviv.

Why do they always seem to occur right after moments of de-escalation and there’s the threat of peace breaking out somewhere?

Why is it that every time President Trump tries to push the U.S. and the world away from war within a few days there’s an incident which pushes us right back to the brink of it?

Trump visits Kim Jong-un in North Korea, making history, there are attacks on UAE oil tankers. Trump refuses to attack Iran over them shooting down a Global Hawk drone in Iranian airspace escorted by a fully-crewed Poseiden P-8.

Britain seizes the Grace 1 oil tanker. Israel attacks Shi’ite Militia targets outside of Baghdad.

Go back to President Trump first, and biggest, geopolitical blunder. The Syrian Army wins a major battle and is on the verge of victory, and a chemical weapons attack happens deep in Al-Qaeda controlled territory blamed on the SAA.

Trump then launches 57 tomahawks at the Al-Shairat airbase.

Trump declares we’re pulling out of Syria, Israel openly bombs targets deep in Syria. His staff, including John Bolton, freak out and walk it back.

The Houthis send a couple of drones at an Aramco facility far beyond their known capabilities and the UAE pulls out of the Saudi coalition in Yemen.

Moscow has had its fill of Netanyahu. He’s openly mocking Trump at international forums, first offering to sell the U.S. Russia’s hypersonic missiles at the G-20 and then offering to sell S-400 missile defense systems to the Saudis to protect their people from outside actors.

All with tongue firmly implanted in cheek.

Things look bad for the alliance between the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia, when your opponents are laughing at you openly. In that moment Putin exposed that the emperor truly was standing naked in front of the world.

And yet, after all of these coincidences I’m supposed to believe, without evidence again, that Iran would jeopardize its future at the very moment when everything is beginning to break their way and the U.S. maximum pressure campaign is failing?

The very fact that we have been shown zero proof of what happened more than 48 hours after the event which has every neocon in the U.S. clamoring for war is your biggest tell that there is something very off about this incident.

Even President Trump doesn’t believe this as he is taking the same tack rhetorically now that he did after the U.S. Global Hawk drone was shot down.

We’ve gone from:

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 15, 2019

To

“I don’t want to have war with anybody” but our military is prepared, Trump says at the White House, where he was meeting with Bahrain Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa. Furthermore, the president said the US is not looking at retaliatory options until he has “definitive proof” that Iran was responsible for attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

Still, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the US “is prepared” if the attacks warrant a response.

Also notably, when asked if he has promised to protect the Saudis, the president responded “No, I haven’t promised the Saudis that… We have to sit down with the Saudis and work something out.”

Moreover, the stunning lack of support from Europe and the rest of the world makes it incredibly suspect that the story that we’ve been told to date, just like with the Global Hawk drone, is anything close to the real one.

And it seems Trump may believe that as well.

In the end, as always, we should be asking the most salient question surrounding this attack.

Cui Bono? (Who Benefits?)

Because it certainly isn’t Iran.

But we know who. The bombs had barely hit their targets when AIPAC’s favorite son, Lindsay Graham, was out in full throat for war. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the world Iran was behind 100 strikes of this kind.

Not a shred of evidence. And Trump’s first response was to subordinate U.S. troops sworn to uphold the Constitution and defend the U.S. to the terrorist-funding, repressive regime in Saudi Arabia to do what, exactly?

The Saudis needs $80+ per barrel oil.

The U.S. frackers need $60+ and zero-bound interest rates to keep the red ink flowing just slow enough to get yield-starved pension funds to bite on the next round of unpayable loans.

Israel needs a strong alliance and U.S. presence in the Middle East lest it have to act like a normal country by respecting its borders and making nice with its neighbors now that it has been exposed as one of the chief architects and supporters of the project to turn Syria into a failed state run by Takfiri crazies and anyone else no one wants in their back yard.

But the biggest question of all in this is simple. How dumb do these people think we are?

We can read licence plates from space but we can’t tell where a swarm of missiles that hits one of the most strategically important piece of real estate in the entire world came from?

Seriously?

Whenever a major incident like this happens there’s always this ridiculous fog of war over what happened to obfuscate reality and blame the current enemy of the empire.

The truth is that the Houthis could have pulled this off with help from Iran and there’s little to stop it from happening again and again. They proved their point a few weeks ago.

The Saudis have lost in Yemen. They are now losing a helluva lot more than that.

Iran is serious about taking everyone’s ability to sell oil off the table if they are denied.

Why should anyone be surprised that the Houthis want to cripple Saudi Arabia for its disastrous war and Iran wouldn’t want to assist them in doing so?

Moreover, why isn’t their response justified given the blatant aggression against both?

When is someone in D.C. going to finally realize there is no winning play with Iran anymore?



https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/questions-not-answers-surround-
us-push-war-iran


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

You idiots have been oppressing the entire sexual spectrum as long as you have existed. I can't wait for the day your kind is dead - WISHIMAY

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Tuesday, September 17, 2019 11:45 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Here is an exceptionally good article about the attack on the Saudi's main crude stabilization facility, I especially appreciated the detailed photos. You will have to go the article itself to get higher resolution.





Saturday's attack on the Saudi oil and gas processing station in Abqaiq hit its stabilization facility:

Quote:

The stabilization process is a form of partial distillation which sweetens "sour" crude oil (removes the hydrogen sulfide) and reduces vapor pressure, thereby making the crude oil safe for shipment in tankers. Stabilizers maximize production of valuable hydrocarbon liquids, while making the liquids safe for storage and transport, as well as reduce the atmospheric emissions of volatile hydrocarbons. Stabilizer plants are used to reduce the volatility of stored crude oil and condensate.

Soon after the attack U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went into full 'blame Iran' mode:

Secretary Pompeo @SecPompeo - 21:59 UTC · Sep 14, 2019
Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.
We call on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran’s attacks. The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression

Abqaiq lies at the heart of the Saudi oil infrastructure. It processes more than half of the Saudi oil output.

bigger

The U.S. government published two detailed pictures of the attack's result.

bigger

bigger

The pictures show some 17 points of impact. There are cars visible in the second more detailed picture that demonstrate the gigantic size of the place. The targets were carefully selected. At least 11 of those were egg shaped tanks with a diameter of some 30 meter (100 foot). These are likely tanks for pressurized (liquidized) gas that receive the condensate vapor from the stabilization process. They all have now quite neat holes in their upper shells.

The piping to and from the egg shaped tanks shows that these were configured in groups with double redundancy. Two tanks beside each other share one piping system. Two of such twin tanks are next to each other with lines to their processing train. There are a total of three such groups. Damage to any one tank or group would not stop the production process. The products would be routed to another similar tank or group. But with all tanks of this one special type taken out the production chain is now interrupted.

Two processing areas were hit and show fire damage. At least the control equipment of both was likely completely destroyed:

Consultancy Rapidan Energy Group said images of the Abqaiq facility after the attack showed about five of its stabilization towers appeared to have been destroyed, and would take months to rebuild - something that could curtail output for a prolonged period.

“However Saudi Aramco keeps some redundancy in the system to maintain production during maintenance,” Rapidan added, meaning operations could return to pre-attack levels sooner.

The targeting for this attack was done with detailed knowledge of the process and its dependencies.

The north arrow in those pictures points to the left. The visible shadows confirm the direction. The holes in the tanks are on the western side. They were attacked from the west.

The hits were extremely precise. The Yemeni armed forces claimed it attacked the facility with 10 drones (or cruise missiles). But the hits on these targets look like neither. A total of 17 hits with such precise targeting lets me assume that these were some kind of drones or missiles with man-in-the-loop control. They may have been launched from within Saudi Arabia.

There is no information yet on the damage in Khurais, the second target of the attacks.

The U.S. and Israel are able to commit such attacks. Iran probably too. Yemen seems unlikely to have this capability without drawing on extensive support from elsewhere. The planing for this operation must have taken months.

A Middle-East BBC producer remarks:

Riam Dalati @Dalatrm - 22:44 UTC · Sep 15, 2019
17 points of impact. No Drones or missiles were detected/intercepted. Saudis & Americans still at loss as to where the attack was launched from. #KSA seriously needs to shop elsewhere & replace the Patriot or reinforce it with a web of radar operated AA guns like the Oerlikon.
A source familiar with #Aramco situation told us earlier today that it was a “swarm attack”, a mix of > 20 drones and missiles, at least half of which were "suicide" drones. #USA & #KSA, he said, are 'certain' that attack was launched from #Iraq but 'smoking gun still missing'
They are also 'fairly certain' that #IRGC was behind the operation because, even though the missiles used were identical to those of the #Houthis, an inspection of the debris found in the desert revealed a 'couple of new updates' and a 'distinctly better craftsmanship'

The Wall Street Journal reports of the damage:

The strikes knocked out 5.7 million barrels of daily production, and the officials said they still believe they can fully replace it in coming days. That would require tapping oil inventories and using other facilities to process crude. One of the main targets of the attack was a large crude-processing plant in Abqaiq.
...
“It is definitely worse than what we expected in the early hours after the attack, but we are making sure that the market won’t experience any shortages until we’re fully back online,” said a Saudi official.
...
Even if Saudi officials were successful in restoring all or most of the lost production, the attack demonstrates a new vulnerability to supply lines across the oil-rich Gulf.

Tankers have been paying sharply higher insurance premiums, while shipping rates have soared in the region after a series of maritime attacks on oil-laden vessels, which the U.S. has blamed on Iran.
...
Khurais produces about 1.5 million barrels a day and Abqaiq, the world’s biggest crude-stabilization facility, processes seven million barrels of Saudi oil a day, turning crude into specific grades, such as Arabian Extra Light.

The repairs at Abqaiq will likely take weeks, not days. Brent crude futures rose by 19.5 percent to $71.95 per barrel, the biggest jump since 14 January, 1991:

Aramco gave no timeline for output resumption. A source close to the matter told Reuters the return to full oil capacity could take “weeks, not days”.

Riyadh said it would compensate for the damage at its facilities by drawing on its stocks, which stood at 188 million barrels in June, according to official data.

U.S. President Donald Trump was way more careful in attributing the strike than his Secretary of State.

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump - 0:50 UTC · Sep 16, 2019
Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

Any direct attack on Iran would result in swarms of missiles hitting U.S. military installations in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Saudi water desalination plants, refineries and ports would also be targets.

It is doubtful that Trump or the Saudis are ready to risk such a response.

The attack on Abqaiq was not the last one and all Saudi installations are extremely vulnerable:

Yemen’s Houthi rebels said oil installations in Saudi Arabia remain among their targets after attacks against two major sites slashed the kingdom’s output by half and triggered a surge in crude prices.

The Iranian-backed rebel group, cited by the Houthi’s television station, said its weapons can reach anywhere in Saudi Arabia. Saturday’s attacks were carried out by “planes” using new engines, the group said, likely referring to drones.

Middle East Eye, a Qatari financed outlet, reported yesterday that the attack was launched from Iraq by Iran aligned forces in revenge for Israeli attacks in Syria. The author, David Hearst, is known for slandered reporting. The report is based on a single anonymous Iraqi intelligence source. Qatar, which is struggling with Saudi Arabia and the UAE over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood, would like to see a larger conflict involving its rivals east and west of the Persian Gulf. The report should therefore be disregarded.

Saudi Arabia has no defenses against this kind of attacks. The U.S. has no system that could be used for that purpose. Russia is the only country that can provide the necessary equipment. It would be extremely costly, and still insufficient, to protect all of the Saudi's vital facilities from similar swarm attacks.

Attacks of this kind will only end when Saudi Arabia makes peace with Yemen and when the U.S. ends its sanctions of oil exports from Iran. As Iran's President Rouhani said:

“If one day they want to prevent the export of Iran’s oil, then no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf”

It is high time for hawks like Pompeo to recognize that Iran means what it says and has the tools to fulfill that promise.


https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/damage-at-saudi-oil-plant-points
-to-well-targeted-swarm-attack.html#more


An interesting comment on the damage shown by the photos

Quote:

No where near an expert, but taking a look on Google Maps, the orientation of the holes on the tanks looks like an attack from the wrong side (ie it looks more likely it came from inside Saudi Arabia). A drone attack from the Iraq or Bahrain side would have travelled further and hit on the other side.

Given the level of precision, I wonder if the attack was launched much more locally - some short distance home-made drone that would fly over the fence with a maximum distance of about a mile from waste land outside the plant. The specific targeting on focused targets instead of indiscriminate scattered destruction would also suggest someone familiar with the plant, and a shorter distance attack flown by hand from nearby would require much less sophisticated equipment.

The photos of the plumes of smoke are also confusing. One is from somewhere outside the plant. And a second at the Haradh gas plant that is appearing in the media, is some 140 miles away from Abqaiq.






Fwiw:

1. I can't imagine why Trump would start a war now before the election - no motive
2. I can't imagine why Iran would want to provoke a war now - no or little motive
3. I CAN imagine why MBS would want to start a war over oil with Iran any time - motive, check
Almost forgot: I CAN imagine why Russia would do this - motive, check

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/16/world/middleeast/trump-
saudi-arabia-oil-attack.html


4. NYTimes - Yemeni drones from previous strikes not strong enough to get there.
5. NYTimes - the kind of drones used can strike a target from any direction, which makes you wonder why ANY of the holes point to SA - really weird.

F*ck oil - none of this matters if not for that. And F*ck coal while we're at it.

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Tuesday, September 17, 2019 12:47 PM

OLDGUY

What Would Mal do ?


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
PNAC?
Javanka?



that there's what ya call "techno speech" lil buckaroo....let's you know that the OP has just a wealth of knowledge about the subject..therefore, take his word as gospel for whatever might follow

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