Elections 2020, Hey Jack, I Was Right. Trump And The Republicans Lost Big Time by THG

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Elections 2020, Hey Jack, I Was Right. Trump And The Republicans Lost Big Time

POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Sunday, February 11, 2024 03:28
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Monday, October 26, 2020 8:54 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Predictions for November 3rd
Posted on Monday, Oct 26, 2020 by Callum Watts

Four years ago I looked at the US election and predicted that Donald Trump would likely win. The day after the election I described the kind of president he was likely to be. That he would ignore all norms, stack the federal judiciary and bureaucracy with lackeys who would obey him, and likely use private militias to intimidate political opponents. Many of these predictions have born true. A key part of my argument was trying to explain the sort of man Trump is, and therefore what his behaviours are likely to be, and what effect that was likely to have on the institutions he is in charge of. One of my main points was to stop imagining that shared norms in and of themselves can provide restraint to Trump’s power when he quite explicitly does not believe in them.

More at https://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2020/10/predictions-for-nove
mber-3rd.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, October 26, 2020 10:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Easy Trump win incoming.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Back in April, President Trump picked out a single computer model of coronavirus spread as his oracle of choice. Unsurprisingly, that simulation initially had rosier estimates than other algorithms, projecting many fewer Covid-19 deaths — and its unconventional calculations and fluctuating estimates drew sharp criticism from epidemiologists.

But the statisticians behind it have since changed their methods, and their new numbers, published Friday, bolster what scientists have long been saying: That doing away with social distancing measures could entail vast numbers of deaths, and that widespread mask-wearing in public could save tens of thousands of lives.

“We think the key point here is that there’s a huge winter surge coming,” Christopher Murray, a lead author on the paper and the director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said in a press briefing. At this point, the wave isn’t fully preventable, but “expanding mask use is one of the easy wins for the United States.”

Specifically, the paper projected that there could be some half a million Covid-19-related deaths in the U.S. by the end of February, and that some 130,000 of those tragedies might be forestalled with universal mask use. But experts warn that the figures from any of the model’s hypothetical scenarios are less useful than the comparison between the different possibilities. By putting those projections side by side, you can start to see how much of an effect something like mask-wearing might have on a population level, if you take the authors’ estimation that face coverings can reduce an individual’s risk of infection by about 40%.

More at https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/23/universal-mask-use-could-save-1300
00-lives-by-the-end-of-february-new-modeling-study-says/

Why should Trump change his ways when most of the deaths happen after the election? MAGA! Vote Trump.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, October 26, 2020 10:18 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...

Quote:
Originally posted by second:

More at https://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2020/10/predictions-for-nove
mber-3rd.html

Some of the more:

"The opposition will struggle to mount a coherent response and will be split into a variety of different groups. Centrists who will want to run an investigation into the election and await the outcome; the MSNBC set who have a belief that US institutions are sacred and will somehow ‘not let this happen’ through rhetoric and appeals to reason alone; some never Trump republicans who will be focussed on reasoning with whatever remains of a reasonable GOP; intersectionally driven activists who will focus on the white supremacy and patriarchy element of Trump’s message, and a set of the Sanders inspired left who are likely to be describing the situation as an authoritarian takeover. The lack of an overriding shared interest or ideology to resist Trump’s true believers will mean that, even though they are an isolated minority, they will dominate the public sphere and leave their opponents feeling divided.

In terms of force, Tump’s private militias will already have a presence at polling booths and at counter rallies and demonstrations. We have seen state houses flooded with heavily armed men, and we have seen their violence deployed on the streets against peaceful protesters. As confusion and worry begins to spread caused by the unclear outcome, we may see a power vacuum emerge. Those bold enough to assert themselves as authorities and the forces of order will be treated as such. The inevitable left-wing protests which will rock the capital and other major cities will be put down more or less violently by militia groups with either tacit or active support of the police forces. Most people will feel supportive of these counter protests, but they will stay at home through fear of getting involved but also because of the widespread anxiety around political organising caused by covid-19. Unfortunately it is the very people who are the least concerned for their health (far right activists) who will be on the streets, they are also the people with the most guns, the most willingness to use them, and who will take direct commands from the President to do his bidding. There is no similar organisation on the left and no clear figurehead or organisation capable of providing resistance to the Trump militias, and given that they do not exist now, I think that attempting to create one before election day is likely to play straight into the right’s hands as providing an excuse for more violence. Even if such an organisation did come into existence, the fact that it would lack both experienced ‘soldiers’ and leadership make this a really unattractive proposition.

This is only a possible scenario, and it is made less likely if Trump loses by a significant margin. But the point I think it is important to understand is that Trump has accumulated unique levels of power, and that whatever his ideology (and I think it is pretty credible to say he doesn’t have one) the key thing to focus on is what he can do, and what he wants to do. In summary it is possible that Trump will contest the election result, his contestation will be supported by a willing propaganda machine that will galvanise a relatively coherent group of true believers to push back on opposition civil society action. Furthermore US institutions seem incapable of putting up much of a fight against Trump, and the fact that the highest court in the land is effectively a GOP dominated supra-legislature makes any successful contestation of the election result by Trump likely to succeed, and any attack on the President’s claim to have won likely to be defeated. The exact details of what the contestation is and how that decision will be made I can’t comment on, having no expertise in American constitutional law, but suffice it to say that I’d be astonished if we didn’t find some ruling in favour of Trump. A far less partisan supreme court handed the election to George W Bush in 2000, so we should have absolutely no reason to hope that it rules against Trump in this case. Furthermore, the panic around covid is likely to further increase the anxiety and sense of emergency and disempowerment amongst the left. If this does happen concerted civil action will be required to stop this, from unions, coalitions of activist groups all being willing to put themselves on the line and cause mass disruption to American society."

That sums it up very well in terms of a possible or even likely near future. It's reads like a future history novel. Chilling for those of us that like our country without a mass murdering dictator as president.

My favorite observation:
"He came into the White House a political novice, with at least some reason to believe that the vaunted institutions of the US political system might encumber his desire to do whatever he wants. But he has spent the last four years testing the limits of American institutional safeguards, and he knows that they are weak, and offer no real challenge to him. I think these things still hold true and thus make it unlikely that he would concede defeat if he loses the election by a single digit number."

I don't think there's a calculator powerful enough to estimate Putin's ROI on this effort...

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Monday, October 26, 2020 11:29 AM

THG

OK, think about it second, G. We live in a country of roughly 320 million people. All the militias put together amount to a short dozen. No worries there.

They have the worry. After the election, our justice system will begin picking them apart because they are being categorized as domestic terrorist's. It's already started.

Legal attacks by the republicans are being defeated in the courts for the most part already. The election will be won overwhelmingly by Biden effectually stiffening any challenges to come. It's my opinion Trump awoke a sleeping giant.

As for the election? Eight days now. tick tock tick tock...

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, October 26, 2020 11:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Yup. Only 8 more days until Trump gets reelected.

Only 4 more years until Trump is out of office.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, October 26, 2020 12:45 PM

THG

T

If he loses he'll have to leave the country.

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, October 26, 2020 4:55 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yup. Only 8 more days until Trump gets reelected.

Only 4 more years until Trump is out of office.

But Trump throws a fit every day at work which indicates he is sick in the head.

Trump's '60 Minutes' tantrum told us everything

The President had one last chance to reach a vast number of Americans with his message. What did he do with this great opportunity?

He entered whining -- and left in a huff.

He offered nonsense about the size of his rally crowds. He aired rabbit-hole theories about Joe Biden. He even tried to revive a supposed scandal involving Hillary Clinton, as if she was running against Trump. "You have to fight back," he said. "And if you don't fight back, you're not sitting here very long. You go back home. You go back home to mommy." With this he sounded more like an angry boy in the schoolyard than like someone we should trust with very adult problems.

In the end, the difference between the Biden and Trump interviews on 60 Minutes was not the quality of the questions but the tenor of the replies. Trump established a tone of conflict, refusing to truly dialogue. And in his usual fashion he produced a string of misleading statements and out-and-out falsehoods, according to fact checkers.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/opinions/trumps-60-minutes-tantrum-told
-us-everything-dantonio/index.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, October 26, 2020 6:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

^ Fake News.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, October 26, 2020 6:49 PM