REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The further decline of Obama's 2nd term.....

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Thursday, May 17, 2012 16:32
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 788
PAGE 1 of 1

Tuesday, May 15, 2012 5:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


OR "God help us, either way"....

http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/conscience-conserv
ative/2012/may/15/new-poll-shows-romney-leading-obama-among-women-vo
/

CBS and New York Times has given a 46% to 43% for Mitt against Obama for ALL women, not just those of a certain demographic.

Men are slightly more aligned against Obama overall.

"Young People May Not Bother To Vote For Obama"

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/04/young-people-may-not-both
er-to-vote-for-obama-poll
/

Yup... just like I said before....



I listen to a local AM broadcast which, whenever I listen to it for more than a few minutes, has a black commentator and seemingly only black male callers, from the time I've spent there. As a side, I really, honestly love how they call each other brother... The only time I see anything similar on radio shows are if callers say some stupid phrase to make the commentator know they are in-line.

These black gentlemen on both sides, the commentator and the caller-in was saying that Obama screwed everything up by coming out at the end and saying that he's in support of gay marriage. (DISCLAIMER: I have NEVER been against legally recognized civil-unions which would enjoy government tax benefits, so long as the Government never tells a church they have to recognize it)

The first point they were making together was to try to "justify" the largely anti-gay feeling among African Americans because they've been supressessed for decades and they are fighting that. It was even mentioned that "black" men in any other country don't "walk" with swagger they do in America today because this is another show of Black American Male Masculinity.

In the end, the idea was that not only will many former black male supporters not vote for Obama after this choice, but even worse that he's emboldening potentially MILLIONS of white Christians and even Protestants to vote against him.....

All the while, the kids, overall, aren't going to vote....

The Women overall, whether they vote or not, are 3% against him already.

With the high gas prices, males that can't get good jobs to support their families, and things just aren't working now... Obama lost the overall male vote.



Sorry, Die-Hard Obama fans....

The "party" is over...

All of this is happening now, but with all the BS talking points thrown about most of you have probably forgotten the upcoming end-result of the Supreme Court decision of the Health Care issue that will be revealed shortly.

As soon as that is inevitably found Unconstitutional, as it should be, how much more do you believe the numbers will change?





I'm not celebrating this fact.

I HATE Obama

I HATED Bush Jr.



Obama is out, well before the election..... that much is all but FACT now.....

I guess I'll feel how bad you felt when the "lesser" lets me down just like yours did you.



I'm not happy at all that Romney is the successor.....

I'm already looking forward to 2016 and hoping things are better.



Come on Dems... let's get a real candidate for 2016 that will actually CHANGE something.


In the end, all Obama's legacy will be was that he was the first black president and he needlessly, and recklessly raised the US debt more than any president before him.

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Tuesday, May 15, 2012 9:12 PM

HKCAVALIER



Electoral College don't care! Electoral College don't give a !

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_
electoral_college_map.html


HKCavalier

Hey, hey, hey, don't be mean. We don't have to be mean, because, remember, no matter where you go, there you are.

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Wednesday, May 16, 2012 1:21 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Single polls don't mean much, trends in polls mean much more.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Wednesday, May 16, 2012 1:57 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by m52nickerson:
Single polls don't mean much, trends in polls mean much more.




Not always true.

If the single poll gives the result you (editorial you, not Nick in particular) want, then it's the beginning of a change in opinion.

If the single poll that gives the result you want disagrees with all the other polls, it shows they're biased or flawed.

Only if the single poll doesn't give the result you want do trends mean much more.

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Wednesday, May 16, 2012 2:38 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Quote:

Underwear bomb plot: British and US intelligence rattled over leaks

Leak about UK involvement described as despicable by CIA as anger turns to Obama administration for compromising mission

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/11/underwear-bomb-plot-mi6-ci
a-leaks?newsfeed=true


Detailed leaks of operational information about the foiled underwear bomb plot are causing growing anger in the US intelligence community, with former agents blaming the Obama administration for undermining national security and compromising the British services, MI6 and MI5.

The Guardian has learned from Saudi sources that the agent was not a Saudi national as was widely reported, but a Yemeni. He was born in Saudi Arabia, in the port city of Jeddah, and then studied and worked in the UK, where he acquired a British passport.

Mike Scheur, the former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit, said the leaking about the nuts and bolts of British involvement was despicable and would make a repeat of the operation difficult. "MI6 should be as angry as hell. This is something that the prime minister should raise with the president, if he has the balls. This is really tragic," Scheur said.

He added: "Any information disclosed is too much information. This does seem to be a tawdry political thing."





Not seeing much chatter about this. Remember Valerie Plame ? Of course you do. This is worse. Much worse. Not only was an ACTUAL secret operative outed, for political gains, but it wasn't even OUR op!!!



" We're all just folk. " - Mal

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

"The world is a dangerous place. Not because of the people who are evil; but because of the people who don't do anything about it." - Albert Einstein


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Wednesday, May 16, 2012 5:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wow... 80 views since last night and no inflammatory postings against it....

Guess that can only mean a silent candlelight vigil is being held for the passing of Obama, and the truth of his being the first 1 term presidency since the equally deplorable Bush senior, and the first Democrat since Carter in '81.




Hey HKCAVALIER,

You may be on to something here, huh?

Actually, if you look at the trends, Romney is still far behind (and this is current to the 15th):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_elec
tion_romney_vs_obama-1171.html



RCP Average 4/27 - 5/15 -- 46.6 44.1 Obama +2.5
FOX News 5/13 - 5/15 913 RV 46 39 Obama +7
Rasmussen Tracking 5/12 - 5/15 1500 LV 46 47 Romney +1
Gallup Tracking 5/9 - 5/15 2200 RV 45 45 Tie
Wash Times/JZ Analytics 5/11 - 5/12 800 LV 43 44 Romney +1
Associated Press/GfK 5/3 - 5/7 871 RV 50 42 Obama +8
Reuters/Ipsos 5/3 - 5/7 959 RV 49 42 Obama +7
Politico/GWU/Battleground 4/29 - 5/3 1000 LV 47 48 Romney +1
IBD/CSM/TIPP 4/27 - 5/4 856 RV 46 43 Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D) 4/28 - 5/1 1000 LV 47 47 Tie

The most interesting things to note here, is that aside from the AP, Fox News actually gives Obama the greatest lead (I assume only to further embolden people who stay at home to vote).

The Democracy Corps and Gallup, however show a tie today.....

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Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:01 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

Wow... 80 views since last night and no inflammatory postings against it....
Maybe you could learn something from this. Intelligent people know that polls only mean so much, change from day to day, depend on how the questions are asked, and usually reflect a bias of one kind or another. They're interesting to post, but--ESPECIALLY five months before election!--mean next to nothing. Why would anyone care to post anything inflammatory about it?

Multiple polls with the same or similar results may mean more, but anything can change on a dime tomorrow with some big revelation (depending on how much attention the media gives it and which way they spin it)--which revelation could be just as easily forgotten a week later with some OTHER revelation.

Like I said, they're interesting, but don't mean much. It's laughable to even imagine anyone going "omigawd" or holding silent candle-light vigils because of polls. Certainly some of the more ignorant among us have started threads with a poll which gave results they liked, coupled with some "neener-neener" idiocy (or in our case, a long TIRADE of "neener neener"s ("Sorry, Die-Hard Obama fans....The "party" is over..." "Obama is out, well before the election..... that much is all but FACT now....." What Wonderland are you writing from?!), but the rest of us understand. Maybe you do now, too.

Or not. Rave on, Leon.


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Thursday, May 17, 2012 5:06 AM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wow... 80 views since last night and no inflammatory postings against it....




Actually, I personally am not even bothering to read stuff by confirmed die hard Obama haters, who have been for over 4 years and continue to be.

Further, poll results TODAY about an event 6 months in the future are MEANINGLESS-- too much can happen in a week or even a DAY to change minds.

Quote:



RCP Average 4/27 - 5/15 -- 46.6 44.1 Obama +2.5
FOX News 5/13 - 5/15 913 RV 46 39 Obama +7
Rasmussen Tracking 5/12 - 5/15 1500 LV 46 47 Romney +1
Gallup Tracking 5/9 - 5/15 2200 RV 45 45 Tie
Wash Times/JZ Analytics 5/11 - 5/12 800 LV 43 44 Romney +1
Associated Press/GfK 5/3 - 5/7 871 RV 50 42 Obama +8
Reuters/Ipsos 5/3 - 5/7 959 RV 49 42 Obama +7
Politico/GWU/Battleground 4/29 - 5/3 1000 LV 47 48 Romney +1
IBD/CSM/TIPP 4/27 - 5/4 856 RV 46 43 Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D) 4/28 - 5/1 1000 LV 47 47 Tie

The most interesting things to note here, is that aside from the AP, Fox News actually gives Obama the greatest lead



Apples 7, Oranges 6. There are too many variables in polling to do more than approximate trends. Among Likely voters, it looks closer that among registered voters. But likely voters is a slippery term-- how many of those "likely voters" will actually turn out? How many will be " too busy " on the actual DAY? How were those poll takers chosen? How were the questions asked? What is the bias of the polling company? What is the bias of the company's intended audience? Most critically, what are the margins of error?

The RCP Average interests me, too. I know RCP, I used to read it some-- it's "right wing", "conservative", "pro-Republican"-- and I don't mean that as an insult. Sounds like they added up a bunch of polls and averaged them out. I'd like to know exactly how many, exactly which ones, exactly what the total sample size was, exactly what margins of error. But it must have hurt them to come up with an answer that shows Obama ahead-- that has to be the result they didn't want to print, so it might, reluctantly, be honest. Or, as you said, it might be an attempt to motivate the base:" It's closer than you think, YOUR vote could make the difference, so get out there."

Way too soon to tell, though. Poll results somewhare around MLB Playoff time will have some value.

E-T-A: Looks like Niki made the same points I did. And I followed the link to RCP - I like the big trend graph on the same page-- shows Obama consistently ahead over the last long time span, but support for both candidates declining in trend right now. Romney declining and still behind, Obama declining. A Surge for Newt? Ron Paul? for "None-Of-The-Above"? for " Pass me another beer, I'm stayin' home"?

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Thursday, May 17, 2012 4:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I do believe that "pass me another beer, I'm staying home" will win out this time around.

Nothing to get excited about on either side.....

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