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Predicting the future with 90% accuracy... and Iran

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Monday, July 24, 2023 11:32
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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 9:04 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Mathematical Fortune-Telling
How well can game theory solve business and political disputes?
Julie J. Rehmeyer

Predicting the future is not very hard, according to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: a little mathematics is all you need. Figuring out how to manipulate a situation to achieve specific aims is a bit less straightforward, but Bueno de Mesquita says his mathematical tools can usually do that, too.

The New York University political science professor has developed a computerized game theory model that predicts the future of many business and political negotiations and also figures out ways to influence the outcome. Two independent evaluations, one by academics and one by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, have both shown that about 90 percent of his predictions have been accurate. Most recently, he has used his mathematical tools to offer approaches for handling the growing nuclear crisis with Iran.

Bueno de Mesquita provides the computer tools, but he relies on political or business experts to identify specific issues, their possible outcomes, and the key players.... Bueno de Mesquita finds that he can get experts to agree on what information the model needs as input, even when the experts disagree sharply on expected outcomes. .... "It's basic information that experts agree on and that you can even find in The Economist."

The details of his study of negotiation options with Iran are classified, but Bueno de Mesquita says that the broad outline is that there is nothing the United States can do to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear energy for civilian power generation. The more aggressively the U.S. responds to Iran, he says, the more likely it is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. The upshot of the study, Bueno de Mesquita argues, is that the international community needs to find out if there is a way to monitor civilian nuclear energy projects in Iran thoroughly enough to ensure that Iran is not developing weapons.

(A list of accurate but surprising predicitons can be found here)

... The main reason that the model generates more reliable predictions than experts do is that "the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget," he says. In the analysis of nuclear technology development in Iran, for example, experts identified 80 relevant players. Because no individual can keep track of all the possible interactions between so many players, human analysts focus on five or six key players. The lesser players may not have a lot of power, Buena de Mesquita says, but they tend to be knowledgeable enough to influence how key decision-makers understand the issues. His model can keep track of those influences when a human can't.

www.sciencenews.org/articles/20071027/mathtrek.asp

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 9:14 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


"the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget"

Having played games of various types against a computer - where you both have the same rules - I can attest to that. The computer also never gets discouraged, angry, or frustrated, nor does it take mental shortcuts or have an agenda (aside from the algorithm by which it plays).

It's a lot like 'expert' medical algorithms beating out doctors at every turn.


I'm not surprised that a computer could predict with such accuracy - it's a testament to both the 'unfailing-ness' of the computer and the accuracy of the algorithms programmed into it.

Sadly, I guarantee no one will be paying attention.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 10:25 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


\
---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 10:46 AM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
"the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget"


It does if you forget to save...

H

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 10:57 AM

SERGEANTX


Who is Hari Seldon?

SergeantX

"Dream a little dream or you can live a little dream. I'd rather live it, cause dreamers always chase but never get it." Aesop Rock

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 11:00 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Who is Hari Seldon?
The thought had occurred to me too.


---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 11:17 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


What I wonder - if the 'players' use the model to seek an optimum solution *, does that change the dynamics of the model ?

* One would hope that in this case, a non-nuclear Iran is considered the optimum solution. But - I guarantee Bush & Co are NOT seeking a non-nuclear Iran, just as they were NOT seeking WMDs in Iraq.




***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 2:19 PM

FREDGIBLET


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
What I wonder - if the 'players' use the model to seek an optimum solution *, does that change the dynamics of the model ?



Any change to any parameter in the model will change the dynamics, thus tweaking the model with "what-ifs" to see what the best slution is will change everything.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 2:47 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


And that's where what you do is assume everyone is seeking an optimum.


But anyway, this is one of those problems where one would think that if there's an obvious solution, it would be implemented. B/c there are so many problems with no solutions, why not solve the things you can ?

How many here think Bush is angling for a way to bomb Iran --- no matter what ?

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 3:11 PM

FREDGIBLET


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
And that's where what you do is assume everyone is seeking an optimum.



To be more precise they make the assumption that everyone is seeking an optimum for themselves.

Quote:

But anyway, this is one of those problems where one would think that if there's an obvious solution, it would be implemented. B/c there are so many problems with no solutions, why not solve the things you can ?


Obvious != good, there are many obvious solutions to many different problems (for instance fire is an obvious solution to every problem) but if the solution doesn't leave everyone equally unsatisfied (the mark of a good compromise) then it won't be implemented.

Quote:

How many here think Bush is angling for a way to bomb Iran --- no matter what ?


I don't claim to know Bush's thoughts (thankfully) but I wouldn't be surprised. Of course it may be more subtle then that, piss of Iran little by little so that when the Democrats win the next presidential election the newcomer has to deal with a crisis right away perhaps.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 3:16 PM

ALLIETHORN7


War? Bah.
Your'wars' and suchlike bore me.
Wake me up when the nukes start flying, cuz then I'm emigrating to Canada.

-Danny

and every time I play with passion I start breaking strings,
and my voice cracks when I sing from my heart
guess that's the price I've got to pay to know that I'm alive
this melody is tearing me apart


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I LIKE CHEESE!!!
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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 3:19 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


In this case I think Iran isn't internally motivated to acquire bomb capability. It requires some serious purchasing power or internal investment - for know-how, materials and facilities. And after 9/11 people in Iran demonstrated in the streets in support of the US. The optimum for them would be - I think - to back off from the rhetoric they've been cornered into making - and the follow-on actions they might have to take.

Defusing relations is one of those win/ win solutions.

But that's what the calculations predict - in a quantitiative and validated way. If the US backs off the optimum for Iran will be to back off as well.

***************************************************************
There's a 90% probability we can all just get along -

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 3:33 PM

FREDGIBLET


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
In this case I think Iran isn't internally motivated to acquire bomb capability. It requires some serious purchasing power or internal investment - for know-how, materials and facilities.



I disagree, possessing nuclear weapons has benefits beyond defense, it also gives you more chips in offensive negotiations. Additionally we are ignoring the possibility that the Iranians aren't lying and they do want nuclear power, either to the exclusion of weapons (unlikely) or in addition to weapons (in which case having invested in one you might as well do the other).

Quote:

And after 9/11 people in Iran demonstrated in the streets in support of the US.


2 things, that was before we went out of our way to piss off the entire world and that was the people of Iran not the government.

Quote:

The optimum for them would be - I think - to back off from the rhetoric they've been cornered into making - and the follow-on actions they might have to take.


The optimum result for them would be to acquire nuclear weapons and nuclear power. However the actions (and resultant reactions) necessary to do so will probably be sub-optimum

Quote:

Defusing relations is one of those win/ win solutions.


Until it reaches the status of appeasement

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 4:02 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Here is where I can only point to the result of the analysis - which is, despite what you or I debate, Iran will pursue nuclear energy, and the more aggressively the US targets Iran, the more likely it will develop nuclear weapons.

"Bueno de Mesquita says that the broad outline is that there is nothing the United States can do to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear energy for civilian power generation. The more aggressively the U.S. responds to Iran, he says, the more likely it is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. The upshot of the study, Bueno de Mesquita argues, is that the international community needs to find out if there is a way to monitor civilian nuclear energy projects in Iran thoroughly enough to ensure that Iran is not developing weapons."

Here is where the US can avoid going out of its way to trigger the exact thing it says it wants to prevent.

As SignyM has pointed out fairly often (and I do learn, even if it takes a while), to state the choices as either bomb or appease is clearly false. There are other options in between. Clearly sanctions worked in Iraq - so that might be an avenue to consider. But whatever is done, it will need cooperation by ALL major players in their relations with Iran.



BTW - I maintain that the US is NOT interested in the state of Iran's nuclear capability.
***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, November 2, 2007 12:40 AM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!


$6/gallon gas in USA, when Bush Gang attacks Iran, to shut off the supply of cheap oil, just like already done in Iraq, Alaska and Gulf of Mexico.
Quote:

Jewish CFR President: $200 Oil If War With Iran

Richard Haass the President of the Council on Foreign Relations and Bilderberg luminary was interviewed by disinfobabe Katie Couric on the situation with Iran. A $200 oil price is certainly not out of the realm of possibility considering oil recently eclipsed the $90 a barrel mark. Oil was $30 a barrel before the Bush Gang's 2nd invasion of Iraq.

www.roguegovernment.com/news.php?id=4723


Crime does pay, extremly well. Especially murder.

That's their modus operandi in Iraq, where gas was FIVE-CENTS/GALLON:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/4354269.stm

That's been their modus operandi since the 1970s, when gas was 29-cents/gallon:





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Saturday, November 3, 2007 6:03 PM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!



Royal Dutch Shell Corporation

Bomb Iran = President-For-Life George DWI Bush
Quote:

"If President Bush copied Julius Caesar by ordering his army to empty Iraq of Arabs and repopulate the country with Americans, he would achieve immediate results: popularity with his military; enrichment of America by converting an Arabian Iraq into an American Iraq (therefore turning it from a liability to an asset); and boost American prestiege while terrifying American enemies. He could then follow Caesar's example and use his newfound popularity with the military to wield military power to become the first permanent president of America, and end the civil chaos caused by the continually squabbling Congress and the out-of-control Supreme Court. President Bush can fail in his duty to himself, his country, and his God, by becoming “ex-president” Bush or he can become “President-for-Life” Bush: the conqueror of Iraq, who brings sense to the Congress and sanity to the Supreme Court. Then who would be able to stop Bush from emulating Augustus Caesar and becoming ruler of the world? For only an America united under one ruler has the power to save humanity from the threat of a new Dark Age wrought by terrorists armed with nuclear weapons. When the ancient Roman general Julius Caesar was struggling to conquer ancient Gaul, he not only had to defeat the Gauls, but he also had to defeat his political enemies in Rome who would destroy him the moment his tenure as consul (president) ended. Caesar pacified Gaul by mass slaughter; he then used his successful army to crush all political opposition at home and establish himself as permanent ruler of ancient Rome. The simple truth that modern weapons now mean a nation must practice genocide or commit suicide. Israel provides the perfect example. If the Israelis do not raze Iran, the Iranians will fulfill their boast and wipe Israel off the face of the earth. The wisest course would have been for President Bush to use his nuclear weapons to slaughter Iraqis until they complied with his demands, or until they were all dead."
—Jew Frank Gaffney, Jew Dick Cheney, Jew Richard Perle, Jew Elliott Abrams, CIA Director James Woolsey (Jew?), Family Security Matters Corporation aka Center for Security Policy Corporation (CSP) ak National Security Advisory Council Corporation, President-for-life Bush, August 2007
www.infowars.com/articles/ps/dictatorship_neocons_make_bush_dictator_o
f_the_world.htm



We should pay Iran to nuke Israel off the face of the Earth. It would be a bargain.



President-For-Life Benito Mussolini welcomed home in Italy
Assassinated by British Communists to silence their MI6 employee

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Thursday, December 30, 2021 9:29 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

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Thursday, December 30, 2021 10:58 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


They should shoot the Jawas into space.

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Thursday, February 24, 2022 9:16 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

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Monday, July 24, 2023 11:32 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Sir Salman Rushdie reveals he is in therapy to try and overcome 'crazy dreams' sparked by his stabbing

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12293501/Sir-Salman-Rushdie-r
eveals-therapy-try-overcome-crazy-dreams.html

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