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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maybe this is like one of Ted's Trump countdown threads that just go on forever and ever.

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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Russia starts to fall apart. Russia is not a traditional nation-state. It is a multi-ethnic empire. If that fractures and we see civil collapse (and likely the odd internal war) the Russian frontier becomes less secure. More functional pieces of the old Russian empire will try to claw their way out. Some will use guns. Some will have nukes. All will have Soviet-quality military equipment and intelligence personnel. I would not want to be Poland or Ukraine.

But I might want to be Finland. Assuming the Russians don’t try their Hail Mary and come and visit the Balts in the night, a suitably chaotic Russia might entice the Finns to come visit Russia. The Karelian Isthmus used to be Finnish territory, and in a Russian-disintegration scenario I can absolutely see St Petersburg breaking away to become the fourth Baltic republic under Finnish sponsorship.

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